混凝土坝长期运行安全的理想点法评价模型
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摘要
为了分析混凝土坝长期运行过程中可能存在的安全问题,基于混凝土坝长期运行监测数据对混凝土坝的安全度进行量化;通过分析影响混凝土坝安全的关键因素,建立混凝土坝安全评价指标体系;结合层次分析法主观赋权与独立信息波动赋权法客观赋权确定各个指标的组合权重,构建了基于理想点法的混凝土坝长期运行安全评价模型。工程实例验证结果表明,建立的模型求得的各指标权重和混凝土坝的安全度与工程实际运行情况相符。
To analyze the potential safety problems in the long-term operation of concrete dams,the degree of safety for concrete dams was quantified based on the long-term monitoring data. A safety evaluation index system was established by analyzing the essential safety factors affecting concrete dams. Then,the subjective weight based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the objective weight based on data independence and data fluctuation (DIDF) theory were used to calculate the combination weight of each index. Finally,a comprehensive evaluation model for the long-term safety of concrete dams was constructed based on the ideal point method. The validated result of an engineering example shows that the weight of each index and the safety degree of the concrete dam calculated by the model are in accordance with the actual operation of the project.
To analyze the potential safety problems in the long-term operation of concrete dams,the degree of safety for concrete dams was quantified based on the long-term monitoring data. A safety evaluation index system was established by analyzing the essential safety factors affecting concrete dams. Then,the subjective weight based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the objective weight based on data independence and data fluctuation (DIDF) theory were used to calculate the combination weight of each index. Finally,a comprehensive evaluation model for the long-term safety of concrete dams was constructed based on the ideal point method. The validated result of an engineering example shows that the weight of each index and the safety degree of the concrete dam calculated by the model are in accordance with the actual operation of the project.
引文
[1]中华人民共和国水利部.2016年全国水利发展统计公报[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2016.
[2]顾冲时,苏怀智.混凝土坝工程长效服役与风险评定研究述评[J].水利水电科技进展,2015,35(5):1-12.(GU Chongshi,SU Huaizhi.Current status and prospects of long-term service and risk assessment of concrete dams[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2015,35(5):1-12.(in Chinese))
[3]刘强,沈振中,聂琴,等.基于灰色模糊理论的多层次大坝安全综合评价[J].水电能源科学,2008,26(6):76-78.(LIU Qiang,SHEN Zhenzhong,NIE Qin,et al.Research on battery charging control strategy in standalone wind/photovoltaic hybrid street lamp lighting system[J].Water Resources and Power,2008,26(6):76-78.(in Chinese))
[4]康耀红.数据融合理论与应用[M].西安:西安电子科技大学出版社,2006.
[5]何金平.信息熵理论与大坝健康诊断[J].大坝与安全,2015(4):1-5.(HE Jinping.The relation between information entropy theory and dam health diagnosis[J].Dam and Safety,2015(4):1-5.(in Chinese))
[6]季根蔡.基于层次分析法的水库大坝安全鉴定的综合评价[J].红水河,2007,26(1):133-136.(JI Gencai.Overall evaluation of dam safety based on the analytic hierarchy process[J].Hongshui River,2007,26(1):133-136.(in Chinese))
[7]吴云芳,李珍照,徐帆.BP神经网络在大坝安全综合评价中的应用[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2003,31(1):25-29.(WU Yunfang,LI Zhenzhao,XUFan.Application of BP artificial neural network to comprehensive evaluation of dam safety[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2003,31(1):25-29.(in Chinese))
[8]李春雷,李晓璐.混凝土安全的多层次模糊综合评价研究[J].水力发电,2010,36(10):93-95.(LIChunlei,LI Xiaolu.Study on comprehensive assessment of dam safety based on AHP and fuzzy math[J].Water Power,2010,36(10):93-95.(in Chinese))
[9]宋恩来.混凝土坝老化与安全评价[J].大坝与安全,2008(4):4-8.(SONG Enlai.Aging and safety evaluation of concrete dam[J].Dam and Safety,2008(4):4-8.(in Chinese))
[10]李同春,王仁坤,游启升,等.高拱坝安全度评价方法研究[J].水利学报,2007,38(增刊1):83-88.(LITongchun,WANG Renkun,YOU Qisheng,et al.Study on safety evaluation methods for high arch dams[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2007,38(Sup1):83-88.(in Chinese))
[11]苏怀智,刘红萍.高重力坝抗滑稳定安全度分析[J].水利水电科技进展,2011,31(4):20-23.(SUHuaizhi,LIU Hongping.Stability safety degree against sliding in high gravity dams[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2011,31(4):20-23.(in Chinese))
[12]王少伟,夏辉,崔英杰,等.基于突变理论的拱坝整体安全度分析[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2012,40(5):544-548.(WANG Shaowei,XIA Hui,CUI Yingjie,et al.Analysis of global safety degree of arch dam based on catastrophe theory[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2012,40(5):544-548.(in Chinese))
[13]何勇军.模糊测度理论在大坝安全智能决策支持系统中的应用[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2008,36(5):605-609.(HE Yongjun.Application of fuzzy measure theory in DSIDSS[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2008,36(5):605-609.(in Chinese))
[14]高健,黄海,周登峰.拱坝安全度模糊综合评判模型[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2004,32(2):164-167.(GAO Jian,HUANG Hai,ZHOU Dengfeng.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for arch dam safety[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2004,32(2):164-167.(in Chinese))
[15]FENG J,WEI H,PAN J,et al.Comparative study procedure for the safety evaluation of high arch dams[J].Computers and Geotechnics,2011,38(3):306-317.
[16]刘愚.基于熵权-理想点法的大坝安全评价模型及应用[J].水电能源科学,2016,34(5):73-76.(LIU Yu.Dam safety evaluation model and based in entropy weight and idea point method[J].Water Resources and Power,2016,34(5):73-76.(in Chinese))
[17]李影,刘治愚.基于组合赋权-理想点法的大坝安全评价模型[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2016,14(1):60-66.(LI Ying,LIU Zhiyu.Evaluation of dam safety based on combination weight-idea point method[J].Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,2016,14(1):60-66.(in Chinese))
[18]李明超,刘菲,陈卫国.多因素作用下大坝安全响应结构图仿真与分析[J].水利学报,2011,42(11):1355-1360.(LI Mingchao,LIU Fei,CHEN Weiguo.Block diagram simulation and analysis approach to dam safety under multiple factors influences[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2011,42(11):1355-1360.(in Chinese))
[19]姚霄雯,张秀丽,傅春江.混凝土坝溃坝特点及溃坝模式分析[J].水电能源科学,2016(12):83-86.(YAO Xiaowen,ZHANG Xiuli,FU Chunjiang.Failure characteristics and failure mode analysis for concrete dam[J].Water Resources and Power,2016(12):83-86.(in Chinese))
[20]徐镇凯,王锋,魏博文,等.多因素协同作用下混凝土坝性能退化机理研究进展[J].水利水电科技进展,2016,36(4):80-88.(XU Zhenkai,WANG Feng,WEIBowen,et al.Research progress of performance degradation for in-service concrete dam under multi-factor synergism[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2016,36(4):80-88.(in Chinese))
[21]MATA J.Interpretation of concrete dam behaviour with artificial neural network and multiple linear regression models[J].Engineering Structures,2011,33(3):903-910.
[22]顾冲时,苏怀智,王少伟.高混凝土坝长期变形特性计算模型及监控方法研究进展[J].水力发电学报,2016,35(5):1-14.(GU Chongshi,SU Huaizhi,WANGShaowei.Advances in calculation models and monitoring methods for long-term deformation behavior of concrete dams[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2016,35(5):1-14.(in Chinese))
[23]水利部大坝安全管理中心.SL258-2000水库大坝安全评价导则[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2000.
[24]HAGHSHENAS S S,NESHAEI M A L,POURKAZEMP,et al.The risk assessment of dam construction projects using fuzzy TOPSIS(case study:Alavian Earth Dam)[J].Civil Engineering Journal,2016,2(4):158-167.
[25]陈雷,王延章.基于熵权系数与TOPSIS集成评价决策方法的研究[J].控制与决策,2003,18(4):456-459.(CHEN Lei,WANG Yanzhang.Research on TOPSISintegrated evaluation and decision method based on entropy coef ficient[J].Control and Decision,2003,18(4):456-459.(in Chinese))
[26]郭金玉,张忠彬,孙庆云.层次分析法的研究与应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(5):148-153.(GUO Jinyu,ZHANG Zhizhong,SUN Zhongbin.Study and applications of analytic hierarchy process[J].China Safety Science Journal,2008,18(5):148-153.(in Chinese))
[27]俞立平,潘云涛,武夷山.一种新的客观赋权科技评价方法:独立信息数据波动赋权法DIDF[J].软科学,2010,24(11):32-37.(YU Liping,PAN Yuntao,WUYishan.A new objective weighting method of sci-tech evaluation[J].Soft Science,2010,24(11):32-37.(in Chinese))
[2]顾冲时,苏怀智.混凝土坝工程长效服役与风险评定研究述评[J].水利水电科技进展,2015,35(5):1-12.(GU Chongshi,SU Huaizhi.Current status and prospects of long-term service and risk assessment of concrete dams[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2015,35(5):1-12.(in Chinese))
[3]刘强,沈振中,聂琴,等.基于灰色模糊理论的多层次大坝安全综合评价[J].水电能源科学,2008,26(6):76-78.(LIU Qiang,SHEN Zhenzhong,NIE Qin,et al.Research on battery charging control strategy in standalone wind/photovoltaic hybrid street lamp lighting system[J].Water Resources and Power,2008,26(6):76-78.(in Chinese))
[4]康耀红.数据融合理论与应用[M].西安:西安电子科技大学出版社,2006.
[5]何金平.信息熵理论与大坝健康诊断[J].大坝与安全,2015(4):1-5.(HE Jinping.The relation between information entropy theory and dam health diagnosis[J].Dam and Safety,2015(4):1-5.(in Chinese))
[6]季根蔡.基于层次分析法的水库大坝安全鉴定的综合评价[J].红水河,2007,26(1):133-136.(JI Gencai.Overall evaluation of dam safety based on the analytic hierarchy process[J].Hongshui River,2007,26(1):133-136.(in Chinese))
[7]吴云芳,李珍照,徐帆.BP神经网络在大坝安全综合评价中的应用[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2003,31(1):25-29.(WU Yunfang,LI Zhenzhao,XUFan.Application of BP artificial neural network to comprehensive evaluation of dam safety[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2003,31(1):25-29.(in Chinese))
[8]李春雷,李晓璐.混凝土安全的多层次模糊综合评价研究[J].水力发电,2010,36(10):93-95.(LIChunlei,LI Xiaolu.Study on comprehensive assessment of dam safety based on AHP and fuzzy math[J].Water Power,2010,36(10):93-95.(in Chinese))
[9]宋恩来.混凝土坝老化与安全评价[J].大坝与安全,2008(4):4-8.(SONG Enlai.Aging and safety evaluation of concrete dam[J].Dam and Safety,2008(4):4-8.(in Chinese))
[10]李同春,王仁坤,游启升,等.高拱坝安全度评价方法研究[J].水利学报,2007,38(增刊1):83-88.(LITongchun,WANG Renkun,YOU Qisheng,et al.Study on safety evaluation methods for high arch dams[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2007,38(Sup1):83-88.(in Chinese))
[11]苏怀智,刘红萍.高重力坝抗滑稳定安全度分析[J].水利水电科技进展,2011,31(4):20-23.(SUHuaizhi,LIU Hongping.Stability safety degree against sliding in high gravity dams[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2011,31(4):20-23.(in Chinese))
[12]王少伟,夏辉,崔英杰,等.基于突变理论的拱坝整体安全度分析[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2012,40(5):544-548.(WANG Shaowei,XIA Hui,CUI Yingjie,et al.Analysis of global safety degree of arch dam based on catastrophe theory[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2012,40(5):544-548.(in Chinese))
[13]何勇军.模糊测度理论在大坝安全智能决策支持系统中的应用[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2008,36(5):605-609.(HE Yongjun.Application of fuzzy measure theory in DSIDSS[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2008,36(5):605-609.(in Chinese))
[14]高健,黄海,周登峰.拱坝安全度模糊综合评判模型[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2004,32(2):164-167.(GAO Jian,HUANG Hai,ZHOU Dengfeng.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for arch dam safety[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2004,32(2):164-167.(in Chinese))
[15]FENG J,WEI H,PAN J,et al.Comparative study procedure for the safety evaluation of high arch dams[J].Computers and Geotechnics,2011,38(3):306-317.
[16]刘愚.基于熵权-理想点法的大坝安全评价模型及应用[J].水电能源科学,2016,34(5):73-76.(LIU Yu.Dam safety evaluation model and based in entropy weight and idea point method[J].Water Resources and Power,2016,34(5):73-76.(in Chinese))
[17]李影,刘治愚.基于组合赋权-理想点法的大坝安全评价模型[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2016,14(1):60-66.(LI Ying,LIU Zhiyu.Evaluation of dam safety based on combination weight-idea point method[J].Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,2016,14(1):60-66.(in Chinese))
[18]李明超,刘菲,陈卫国.多因素作用下大坝安全响应结构图仿真与分析[J].水利学报,2011,42(11):1355-1360.(LI Mingchao,LIU Fei,CHEN Weiguo.Block diagram simulation and analysis approach to dam safety under multiple factors influences[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2011,42(11):1355-1360.(in Chinese))
[19]姚霄雯,张秀丽,傅春江.混凝土坝溃坝特点及溃坝模式分析[J].水电能源科学,2016(12):83-86.(YAO Xiaowen,ZHANG Xiuli,FU Chunjiang.Failure characteristics and failure mode analysis for concrete dam[J].Water Resources and Power,2016(12):83-86.(in Chinese))
[20]徐镇凯,王锋,魏博文,等.多因素协同作用下混凝土坝性能退化机理研究进展[J].水利水电科技进展,2016,36(4):80-88.(XU Zhenkai,WANG Feng,WEIBowen,et al.Research progress of performance degradation for in-service concrete dam under multi-factor synergism[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2016,36(4):80-88.(in Chinese))
[21]MATA J.Interpretation of concrete dam behaviour with artificial neural network and multiple linear regression models[J].Engineering Structures,2011,33(3):903-910.
[22]顾冲时,苏怀智,王少伟.高混凝土坝长期变形特性计算模型及监控方法研究进展[J].水力发电学报,2016,35(5):1-14.(GU Chongshi,SU Huaizhi,WANGShaowei.Advances in calculation models and monitoring methods for long-term deformation behavior of concrete dams[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2016,35(5):1-14.(in Chinese))
[23]水利部大坝安全管理中心.SL258-2000水库大坝安全评价导则[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2000.
[24]HAGHSHENAS S S,NESHAEI M A L,POURKAZEMP,et al.The risk assessment of dam construction projects using fuzzy TOPSIS(case study:Alavian Earth Dam)[J].Civil Engineering Journal,2016,2(4):158-167.
[25]陈雷,王延章.基于熵权系数与TOPSIS集成评价决策方法的研究[J].控制与决策,2003,18(4):456-459.(CHEN Lei,WANG Yanzhang.Research on TOPSISintegrated evaluation and decision method based on entropy coef ficient[J].Control and Decision,2003,18(4):456-459.(in Chinese))
[26]郭金玉,张忠彬,孙庆云.层次分析法的研究与应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(5):148-153.(GUO Jinyu,ZHANG Zhizhong,SUN Zhongbin.Study and applications of analytic hierarchy process[J].China Safety Science Journal,2008,18(5):148-153.(in Chinese))
[27]俞立平,潘云涛,武夷山.一种新的客观赋权科技评价方法:独立信息数据波动赋权法DIDF[J].软科学,2010,24(11):32-37.(YU Liping,PAN Yuntao,WUYishan.A new objective weighting method of sci-tech evaluation[J].Soft Science,2010,24(11):32-37.(in Chinese))