基于管网可靠度的天然气市场满意度评价
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摘要
为了掌握天然气市场的供需态势,促进天然气行业发展,指导天然气管网建设规划,需要对天然气市场满意程度进行评价。天然气输送涉及基础设施设置、输送能力、安全性等,综合天然气管网供应能力和市场供需双方经济效益两方面因素,将管道供应可靠度与市场交易财务风险率相结合,构建了供需双方满意度评价方法:在一定供气量情况下,根据不同天然气用户的风险承受能力,按照用户用气优先保障顺序,分别对天然气用户和天然气管网系统的满意程度进行计算、对比,判断得出天然气市场的供需态势。运用基于管网可靠度的天然气市场满意度评价方法对某城市天然气市场进行满意度评价,结果表明:该方法是天然气市场有力的量化分析工具,能够量化供需双方的满意程度,进而掌握天然气市场的供需态势,为天然气销售、管网建设等提供决策依据。(图6,表4,参23)
In order to understand the supply and demand situation of natural gas market so as to promote the development of natural gas industry and guide the construction planning of gas pipeline network, it is necessary to evaluate the satisfaction of natural gas market. The transportation of natural gas involves in infrastructure setup, transportation capacity, safety and other aspects. After comprehensively considering the supply capacity of natural gas pipeline network and the supply and demand economic benefits of natural gas market, the satisfaction evaluation method of natural gas supply and demand sides is constructed by combing the supply reliability of pipeline with the economic risk of market trade. Under certain gas supply conditions, the satisfactions of natural gas customers and pipeline network were calculated and compared according to the risk bearing capacity and gas priority guarantee order of customers. Thus the supply and demand situation of natural gas market is judged. In this paper, the satisfaction of the natural gas market of one certain city was evaluated by means of the natural gas market satisfaction evaluation method based on pipeline reliability. It is indicated that this natural gas market satisfaction evaluation method based on pipeline reliability is a powerful quantitative analysis tool of natural gas market and it can quantify the satisfaction of supply and demand sides so as to understand the supply and demand situation of natural gas market and provide the decision-making basis for the sale of natural gas and the construction of pipeline network.(6 Figures, 4 Tables, 23 References)
In order to understand the supply and demand situation of natural gas market so as to promote the development of natural gas industry and guide the construction planning of gas pipeline network, it is necessary to evaluate the satisfaction of natural gas market. The transportation of natural gas involves in infrastructure setup, transportation capacity, safety and other aspects. After comprehensively considering the supply capacity of natural gas pipeline network and the supply and demand economic benefits of natural gas market, the satisfaction evaluation method of natural gas supply and demand sides is constructed by combing the supply reliability of pipeline with the economic risk of market trade. Under certain gas supply conditions, the satisfactions of natural gas customers and pipeline network were calculated and compared according to the risk bearing capacity and gas priority guarantee order of customers. Thus the supply and demand situation of natural gas market is judged. In this paper, the satisfaction of the natural gas market of one certain city was evaluated by means of the natural gas market satisfaction evaluation method based on pipeline reliability. It is indicated that this natural gas market satisfaction evaluation method based on pipeline reliability is a powerful quantitative analysis tool of natural gas market and it can quantify the satisfaction of supply and demand sides so as to understand the supply and demand situation of natural gas market and provide the decision-making basis for the sale of natural gas and the construction of pipeline network.(6 Figures, 4 Tables, 23 References)
引文
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[15]KUCHERYAVYI V I,MILKOV S N.Reliability calculation for curvilinear insert segments of a gas pipeline in the presence of fracture defects[J].Journal of Machinery and Reliability,2009,38(6):608-611.
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[19]吴庆起,田申.燃气管理与法规[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2009:41-60.WU Q Q,TIAN S.Gas management and regulations[M].Beijing:Chemical Industry Press,2009:41-60.
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[22]杜江.计量经济学及其应用[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2010:34-40.DU J.Econometrics and its application[M].Beijing:China Machine Press,2010:34-40.
[23]钟史明.能源利用热电技术:节能减排论文集[M].南京:河海大学出版社,2008:353-358.ZHONG S M.Collection papers of energy conservation and emission reduction[M].Nanjing:Hohai University Press,2008:353-358.
[2]周建,刘夏兰,吴杨洁,等.蛛网式管网系统对天然气产业发展的作用及启示[J].油气储运,2018,37(11):1201-1206.ZHOU J,LIU X L,WU Y J,et al.The role of cobweb pipeline network system in the development of natural gas industry and its enlightenment[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2018,37(11):1201-1206.
[3]杨建红.中国天然气市场可持续发展分析[J].天然气工业,2018,38(4):145-152.YANG J H.Analysis of sustainable development of natural gas market in China[J].Natural Gas Industry,2018,38(4):145-152.
[4]邹毅,李诗萌,戴维肖.北京旅游纪念品市场消费满意度实证研究[J].科学与管理,2013,33(6):84-87.ZOU Y,LI S M,DAI W X.Research in consumer satisfaction of souvenir market in Beijing[J].Science and Management,2013,33(6):84-87.
[5]李玉鹏,曾丽娟,曹进.基于顾客满意度感知要素的需求预测模型[J].计算机集成制造系统,2017,23(2):404-413.LI Y P,ZENG L J,CAO J.Demand forecasting model based on perception factors of customer satisfaction[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2017,23(2):404-413.
[6]杨哲.商场·超市顾客投诉管理[M].深圳:海天出版社,2005:265-266.YANG Z.Customer complaint management[M].Shenzhen:Haitian Press,2005:265-266.
[7]孙庆莉,安玉发.农产品批发市场客户满意度研究[J].商业研究,2008(7):181-186.SUN Q L,AN Y F.The survey on customer satisfaction in agricultural products wholesaling market[J].Commercial Research,2008(7):181-186.
[8]艾慕阳.大型油气管网系统可靠性若干问题探讨[J].油气储运,2013,32(12):1265-1270.AI M Y.Discussion on issues regarding the reliability of largescale oil and gas pipeline network systems[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2013,32(12):1265-1270.
[9]黄维和.大型天然气管网系统可靠性[J].石油学报,2013,34(2):401-404.HUANG W H.Reliability of large-scale natural gas pipeline network[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2013,34(2):401-404.
[10]薛鲁宁,郑洪龙,周利剑,等.油气管网可靠性计算方法评述[J].油气储运,2016,35(2):124-129.XUE L N,ZHENG H L,ZHOU L J,et al.Reliability calculation methods for oil and gas pipeline network[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2016,35(2):124-129.
[11]范慕炜,宫敬,伍阳,等.陕京天然气管网系统供气可靠度的敏感性[J].油气储运,2018,37(4):378-384.FAN M W,GONG J,WU Y,et al.Sensitivity analysis on the gas supply reliability of Shaanxi-Beijing natural gas pipeline network system[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2018,37(4):378-384.
[12]王馨艺.天然气管道可靠性研究进展[J].天然气与石油,2017,35(4):1-5.WANG X Y.Research progress of gas pipeline reliability[J].Natural Gas and Oil,2017,35(4):1-5.
[13]杨建红,孙洪磊,江波.我国大力发展天然气的风险因素评估和对策建议[J].国际石油经济,2014(6):13-21.YANG J H,SUN H L,JIANG B.Risk factors for our country to develop the natural gas:assessment and countermeasures and suggestions[J].International Petroleum Economics,2014(6):13-21.
[14]艾慕阳.天然气管网多状态可靠性及天然气市场满意度计算[J].油气储运,2016,35(11):1141-1147.AI M Y.Calculation of natural gas pipeline network reliability under multi-state conditions and natural gas market satisfaction[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2016,35(11):1141-1147.
[15]KUCHERYAVYI V I,MILKOV S N.Reliability calculation for curvilinear insert segments of a gas pipeline in the presence of fracture defects[J].Journal of Machinery and Reliability,2009,38(6):608-611.
[16]SKLAVOUNOS S,RIGAS F.Estimation of safety distances in the vicinity of fuel gas pipelines[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2006,19(1):24-31.
[17]FAERTES D,SAKER L,VIEIRA F,et al.Reliability modeling:Petrobras 2010 integrated gas supply chain[C].Calgary:8th International Pipeline Conference,2010:497-505.
[18]田申.城镇燃气法规理论与实践[M].重庆:重庆大学出版社,2012:25-30.TIAN S.Urban gas regulations,theory and practice[M].Chongqing:Chongqing University Press,2012:25-30.
[19]吴庆起,田申.燃气管理与法规[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2009:41-60.WU Q Q,TIAN S.Gas management and regulations[M].Beijing:Chemical Industry Press,2009:41-60.
[20]山东卓创资讯股份有限公司.卓创资讯价格中心-液化石油气价格[EB/OL].(2017-06-30)[2017-12-30].http://price.sci99.com/view/priceview.aspx?pagename.Shandong Zhuochuang Information Corporation Limited.Zhuochuang Information Price Center:Liquefied petroleum gas price[EB/OL].(2017-06-30)[2017-12-30].http://price.sci99.com/view/priceview.aspx?pagename.
[21]山东卓创资讯股份有限公司.卓创资讯价格中心-液化天然气价格[EB/OL].(2017-06-20)[2017-12-20].http://price.sci99.com/view/priceview.aspx?pagename.Shandong Zhuochuang Information Corporation Limited.Zhuochuang Information Price Center:Liquefied natural gas price[EB/OL].(2017-06-20)[2017-12-20].http://price.sci99.com/view/priceview.aspx?pagename.
[22]杜江.计量经济学及其应用[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2010:34-40.DU J.Econometrics and its application[M].Beijing:China Machine Press,2010:34-40.
[23]钟史明.能源利用热电技术:节能减排论文集[M].南京:河海大学出版社,2008:353-358.ZHONG S M.Collection papers of energy conservation and emission reduction[M].Nanjing:Hohai University Press,2008:353-358.