基于技术进步的环境回弹效应研究
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摘要
本文采用2006～2017年间中国省际面板数据,运用LMDI分解技术识别由技术进步引起的污染排放强度变化,定量评估环境回弹效应(ERE)。研究发现:中国各省份环境回弹效应集中在40%～90%之间;随着时间的推移,中国整体环境回弹效应呈现出下降的趋势;北部、东部、南部等沿海经济发达地区的环境回弹效应明显高于其它经济地区,表现出较强的区域差异。为实现经济增长和污染减排的双重目标,应制定合理的环境政策,降低技术进步对污染排放的环境回弹效应。
This paper identifies the changes of the pollution emissions intensity caused by the technological progress and quantitatively assesses the environmental rebound effect( ERE) for 30 provinces of China covering the years from 2006 to 2015 by using LMDI decomposition method. The empirical results show that the environmental rebound effects of various provinces in China are concentrated between 40% and 90%. Over time,the overall environmental rebound effect in China shows a downward trend.The rebound effect is significantly higher in the North Coastal Areas,Eastern Coastal Area and South Coastal Area than other economic regions,showing a strong regional differences. In order to realize the dual goals of economic growth and pollution reduction,a reasonable environmental policy should be formulated to reduce the environmental rebound effect of technological progress on pollution emissions.
This paper identifies the changes of the pollution emissions intensity caused by the technological progress and quantitatively assesses the environmental rebound effect( ERE) for 30 provinces of China covering the years from 2006 to 2015 by using LMDI decomposition method. The empirical results show that the environmental rebound effects of various provinces in China are concentrated between 40% and 90%. Over time,the overall environmental rebound effect in China shows a downward trend.The rebound effect is significantly higher in the North Coastal Areas,Eastern Coastal Area and South Coastal Area than other economic regions,showing a strong regional differences. In order to realize the dual goals of economic growth and pollution reduction,a reasonable environmental policy should be formulated to reduce the environmental rebound effect of technological progress on pollution emissions.
引文
[1] Yang L,Li Z. Technology Advance and the Carbon Dioxide Emission in China—Empirical Research Based on the Rebound Effect[J]. Energy Policy,2017,101:150~161.
[2] Vivanco D F,Mcdowall W,Freire-González J,et al. The Foundations of the Environmental Rebound Effect and Its Contribution Towards a General Framework[J]. Ecological Economics,2016,125:60~69.
[3] Sorrell S,Dimitropoulos J. The Rebound Effect:Microeconomic Definitions,Limitations and Extensions[J]. Ecological Economics,2008,65(3):636~649.
[4] Khazzoom J D. Economic Implications of Mandated Efficiency in Standards for Household Appliances[J]. Energy Journal,1980,1(4):21~40.
[5] Saunders H D. The Khazzoom-Brookes Postulate and Neoclassical Growth[J]. Energy Journal,1992,13(4):131~148.
[6] Sorrell S,Dimitropoulos J,Sommerville M. Empirical Estimates of the Direct Rebound Effect:A Review[J]. Energy Policy,2009,37(4):1356~1371.
[7]周勇,林源源.技术进步对能源消费回报效应的估算[J].经济学家,2007,(2):45~52.
[8]韩颖,石建华,翟洁丽.技术进步视角下回弹效应测算的改进模型[J].技术经济,2018,(1):59~67.
[9] Haas R,Biermayr P. The Rebound Effect for Space Heating Empirical Evidence from Austria[J]. Energy Policy, 2000, 28(6-7):403~410.
[10] Small K A,Van Dender K. Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel:The Declining Rebound Effect[J]. The Energy Journal,2007,(1):25~51.
[11] Howells M,Jeong K,Langlois L,et al. Incorporating Macroeconomic Feedback into an Energy Systems Model Using an IO Approach:Evaluating the Rebound Effect in the Korean Electricity System[J]. Energy Policy,2010,38(6):2700~2728.
[12]李强,魏巍,徐康宁.技术进步和结构调整对能源消费回弹效应的估算[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(10):64~67.
[13] Zhang Y J,Liu Z,Qin C X,et al. The Direct and Indirect CO2,Rebound Effect for Private Cars in China[J]. Energy Policy,2017,100:149~161.
[14]薛曜祖.中国能源回弹效应:理论模型与经验分析——基于GES模型[J].统计与信息论坛,2015,30(10):37~43.
[15] Goedkoop M. Product Service Systems,Ecological and Economic Basics[J]. Pricewaterhouse Coopers,1999,6(3):78~80.
[16] Takahashi K I,Tatemichi H,Tanaka T,et al. Environmental Impact of Information and Communication Technologies Including Rebound Effects[J]. Life Cycle,2004,(5):13~16.
[17] Spielmann M,de Haan P,Scholz R W. Environmental Rebound Effects of High-speed Transport Technologies:A Case Study of Climate Change Rebound Effects of a Future Underground Maglev Train System[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2008,16(13):1388~1398.
[18] Murray C K. What If Consumers Decided to All ‘Go Green’?Environmental Rebound Effects from Consumption Decisions[J].Energy Policy,2013,54:240~256.
[19] Vivanco D F,van der Voet E. The Rebound Effect Through Industrial Ecology's Eyes:A Review of LCA-based Studies[J].The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 2014, 19(12):1933~1947.
[20] Brannlund R,Ghalwash T,Nordstr9m J. Increased Energy Efficiency and the Rebound Effect:Effects on Consumption and Emissions[J]. Energy Economics,2007,29(1):1~17.
[21] Lin B,Liu X. Dilemma Between Economic Development and Energy Conservation:Energy Rebound Effect in China[J]. Energy,2012,45(1):867~873.
[22]陈静,李谷成,冯中朝,等.油料作物主产区全要素生产率与技术效率的随机前沿生产函数分析[J].农业技术经济,2013,(7):85~93.
[23] Battese G E,Coelli T J. Frontier Production Functions,Technical Efficiency and Panel Data:With Application to Paddy Farmers in India[J]. Journal of Productivity Analysis,1992,3(1-2):153~169.
[24]单豪杰.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952~2006年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008,25(10):17~31.
(1)国务院发展研究中心发布的《地区协调发展的战略和政策》报告中指出:中国所沿袭的东、中、西区域划分方法已经不合时宜,提出了划分为八大综合经济区域的具体构想,能够更合理地界定经济区域定位及其发展方向。
[2] Vivanco D F,Mcdowall W,Freire-González J,et al. The Foundations of the Environmental Rebound Effect and Its Contribution Towards a General Framework[J]. Ecological Economics,2016,125:60~69.
[3] Sorrell S,Dimitropoulos J. The Rebound Effect:Microeconomic Definitions,Limitations and Extensions[J]. Ecological Economics,2008,65(3):636~649.
[4] Khazzoom J D. Economic Implications of Mandated Efficiency in Standards for Household Appliances[J]. Energy Journal,1980,1(4):21~40.
[5] Saunders H D. The Khazzoom-Brookes Postulate and Neoclassical Growth[J]. Energy Journal,1992,13(4):131~148.
[6] Sorrell S,Dimitropoulos J,Sommerville M. Empirical Estimates of the Direct Rebound Effect:A Review[J]. Energy Policy,2009,37(4):1356~1371.
[7]周勇,林源源.技术进步对能源消费回报效应的估算[J].经济学家,2007,(2):45~52.
[8]韩颖,石建华,翟洁丽.技术进步视角下回弹效应测算的改进模型[J].技术经济,2018,(1):59~67.
[9] Haas R,Biermayr P. The Rebound Effect for Space Heating Empirical Evidence from Austria[J]. Energy Policy, 2000, 28(6-7):403~410.
[10] Small K A,Van Dender K. Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel:The Declining Rebound Effect[J]. The Energy Journal,2007,(1):25~51.
[11] Howells M,Jeong K,Langlois L,et al. Incorporating Macroeconomic Feedback into an Energy Systems Model Using an IO Approach:Evaluating the Rebound Effect in the Korean Electricity System[J]. Energy Policy,2010,38(6):2700~2728.
[12]李强,魏巍,徐康宁.技术进步和结构调整对能源消费回弹效应的估算[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(10):64~67.
[13] Zhang Y J,Liu Z,Qin C X,et al. The Direct and Indirect CO2,Rebound Effect for Private Cars in China[J]. Energy Policy,2017,100:149~161.
[14]薛曜祖.中国能源回弹效应:理论模型与经验分析——基于GES模型[J].统计与信息论坛,2015,30(10):37~43.
[15] Goedkoop M. Product Service Systems,Ecological and Economic Basics[J]. Pricewaterhouse Coopers,1999,6(3):78~80.
[16] Takahashi K I,Tatemichi H,Tanaka T,et al. Environmental Impact of Information and Communication Technologies Including Rebound Effects[J]. Life Cycle,2004,(5):13~16.
[17] Spielmann M,de Haan P,Scholz R W. Environmental Rebound Effects of High-speed Transport Technologies:A Case Study of Climate Change Rebound Effects of a Future Underground Maglev Train System[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2008,16(13):1388~1398.
[18] Murray C K. What If Consumers Decided to All ‘Go Green’?Environmental Rebound Effects from Consumption Decisions[J].Energy Policy,2013,54:240~256.
[19] Vivanco D F,van der Voet E. The Rebound Effect Through Industrial Ecology's Eyes:A Review of LCA-based Studies[J].The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 2014, 19(12):1933~1947.
[20] Brannlund R,Ghalwash T,Nordstr9m J. Increased Energy Efficiency and the Rebound Effect:Effects on Consumption and Emissions[J]. Energy Economics,2007,29(1):1~17.
[21] Lin B,Liu X. Dilemma Between Economic Development and Energy Conservation:Energy Rebound Effect in China[J]. Energy,2012,45(1):867~873.
[22]陈静,李谷成,冯中朝,等.油料作物主产区全要素生产率与技术效率的随机前沿生产函数分析[J].农业技术经济,2013,(7):85~93.
[23] Battese G E,Coelli T J. Frontier Production Functions,Technical Efficiency and Panel Data:With Application to Paddy Farmers in India[J]. Journal of Productivity Analysis,1992,3(1-2):153~169.
[24]单豪杰.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952~2006年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008,25(10):17~31.
(1)国务院发展研究中心发布的《地区协调发展的战略和政策》报告中指出:中国所沿袭的东、中、西区域划分方法已经不合时宜,提出了划分为八大综合经济区域的具体构想,能够更合理地界定经济区域定位及其发展方向。