淮河流域冬小麦晚霜冻时空演变分析
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摘要
为掌握气候持续变暖背景下淮河流域晚霜冻害的变化规律,基于1960-2016年61个气象站点的逐日地面0cm最低气温数据,计算霜冻频次、强度和变异系数,构建霜冻害危险指数,分析了淮河流域冬小麦生长季晚霜冻时空变化。结果表明:(1)57年中晚霜冻出现在3月11日至4月15日,整体呈提前趋势,速率达到-2.49d·年-1(P<0.05),晚霜冻的提前结束使冬小麦灌浆停滞和籽粒发芽力丧失的风险降低。(2)在冬小麦生长季延长的背景下,57年中轻度、中度、重度晚霜冻的频次都呈现减少趋势,变化倾向率分别为-9.14次·年-1(P<0.01)、-1.17次·年-1(P>0.05)、-5.81次·年-1(P<0.01)。年代变化上,重霜冻在灌浆至成熟阶段的频次在1980s上升趋势最显著,倾向率为6.73次·年-1(P<0.05)。1961-1990年中霜冻在拔节期的频次增加趋势最显著,倾向率为1.80次·年-1(P<0.05);1981-2010年重霜冻在拔节期的频次减少趋势最显著,倾向率为-3.46次·年-1(P<0.01)。(3)冬小麦晚霜冻在不同的生长阶段空间分异较大,呈不同分布模式。以开始拔节的日期为起点,高风险区和较高风险区在拔节后(1～5d)所占面积百分比最大,分别达到0.63%、80.68%。中风险区在抽穗至开花阶段(12～15d)面积百分比最大(81.68%),较低风险区在灌浆至成熟阶段(16～57d)占比最大(57.49%)。不同程度的晚霜冻频次在不同的时间段减少速率不同,在不同的生长阶段空间分布差异较大。
The occurrence of late frost damage in the key phonological period of winter wheat needs to be further analyzed in the context of continuous global warming.Based on daily minimum ground temperature from 61 meteorological stations in Huaihe River basin from 1960 to 2016,combining the phonological date of winter wheat and late frost date,we have calculated the frequency,intensity and coefficient of variation of late frost,and a frost hazard index was constructed.We obtained the temporaland spatial changes of late frost damage in the growing season of winter wheat.The results showed that the late frost date is between March 11 th and April 15 th in recent 57 years.As a whole,the late frost date showed an earlier trend,with the rate of-2.49d·a-1(P<0.05).Under the background of the extended growing season of winter wheat,in the past 57 years,the number of mild,moderate and severe late frost showed a decreasing trend,with the change tendency rate of-9.14times·a-1(P<0.01),-1.17times·a-1(P>0.05),and-5.81times·a-1(P<0.01),respectively.For inter decadal variation,the frequency of severe frost significantly increased in the period from grain filling to maturity with a propensity of 6.73times·a-1(P<0.05)in 1980 s.Mild frost significantly increased at jointing stage,with the trend rate of 1.80times·a-1(P<0.05)between 1961 and 1990.Severe frost showed significant decreasing trend at jointing stage with a propensity of-3.46times·a-1(P<0.01)between 1981 and 2010.The late frost damage of winter wheat in different growing periods showed large spatial differences,with different distribution patterns.Starting from the jointing date,the high-risk area and the second-highest risk area took up the largest percentage of late frost damage after jointing stage(1-5days),reaching to 0.63%and 80.68%,respectively.The mild risk zone from heading to flowering stage(12-15days)accounted for 81.68% of the total area,and the lower risk area accounted for the largest proportion(57.49%)from grain filling to maturity stage(15-57days).It can be concluded that different degrees of the frequency in late frost decreased at different rate,and spatial distribution varies greatly at different growth stages.
The occurrence of late frost damage in the key phonological period of winter wheat needs to be further analyzed in the context of continuous global warming.Based on daily minimum ground temperature from 61 meteorological stations in Huaihe River basin from 1960 to 2016,combining the phonological date of winter wheat and late frost date,we have calculated the frequency,intensity and coefficient of variation of late frost,and a frost hazard index was constructed.We obtained the temporaland spatial changes of late frost damage in the growing season of winter wheat.The results showed that the late frost date is between March 11 th and April 15 th in recent 57 years.As a whole,the late frost date showed an earlier trend,with the rate of-2.49d·a-1(P<0.05).Under the background of the extended growing season of winter wheat,in the past 57 years,the number of mild,moderate and severe late frost showed a decreasing trend,with the change tendency rate of-9.14times·a-1(P<0.01),-1.17times·a-1(P>0.05),and-5.81times·a-1(P<0.01),respectively.For inter decadal variation,the frequency of severe frost significantly increased in the period from grain filling to maturity with a propensity of 6.73times·a-1(P<0.05)in 1980 s.Mild frost significantly increased at jointing stage,with the trend rate of 1.80times·a-1(P<0.05)between 1961 and 1990.Severe frost showed significant decreasing trend at jointing stage with a propensity of-3.46times·a-1(P<0.01)between 1981 and 2010.The late frost damage of winter wheat in different growing periods showed large spatial differences,with different distribution patterns.Starting from the jointing date,the high-risk area and the second-highest risk area took up the largest percentage of late frost damage after jointing stage(1-5days),reaching to 0.63%and 80.68%,respectively.The mild risk zone from heading to flowering stage(12-15days)accounted for 81.68% of the total area,and the lower risk area accounted for the largest proportion(57.49%)from grain filling to maturity stage(15-57days).It can be concluded that different degrees of the frequency in late frost decreased at different rate,and spatial distribution varies greatly at different growth stages.
引文
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[23]朱佳,梁永超,丁燕芳,等.硅对低温胁迫下冬小麦幼苗光合作用及相关生理特性的影响[J].中国农业科学,2006,39(9):1780.ZHU J,LIANG Y C,DING Y F,et al.Effect of silicon on photosynthesis and its related physiological parameters in two winter wheat cultivars under cold stress[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2006,39(9):1780.
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[25]陈凯奇,米娜.辽宁省玉米低温冷害和霜冻灾害风险评估[J].气象与环境学报,2016,32(1):89.CHEN K Q,MI N.Risk evaluation on maize cold damage and frost damage in Liaoning Province[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2016,32(1):89.
[26]韩荣青,李维京,艾婉秀,等.中国北方初霜冻日期变化及其对农业的影响[J].地理学报,2010,65(5):525.HAN R Q,LI W J,AI W X,et al.The climatic variability and influence of first frost dates in Northern China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(5):525.
[27]李芬,张建新,武永利,等.近50年山西终霜冻的时空分布及其影响因素[J].地理学报,2013,68(11):1472.LI F,ZHANG J X,WU Y L,et al.Spatio-temporal distribution of final frost in Shanxi in recent 50years and its influencing factors[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(11):1472.
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[2]唐敏,张勃,张耀宗,等.基于SPEI和SPI指数的青海省东部农业区春夏气象干旱特征的评估[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(6):1029.TANG M,ZHANG B,ZHANG Y Z,et al.Assessment of spring and summer meteorological droughts based on SPEI and SPI in eastern agricultural region of Qinghai Province[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(6):1029.
[3]HUANG J B,ZHANG X,ZHANG Q,et al.Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend[J].Nature Climate Change,2017,44(7):875.
[4]高美玲,张旭博,孙志刚,等.中国不同气候区小麦产量及发育期持续时间对田间增温的响应[J].中国农业科学,2018,51(2):386.GAO M L,ZHANG X B,SUN Z G,et al.Wheat yield and growing period in response to field warming in different climatic zones in China[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2018,51(2):386.
[5]高志强,苗果园,张国红,等.北移冬小麦生长发育及产量构成因素分析[J].中国农业科学,2003,36(1):31.GAO Z Q,MIAO G Y,ZHANG G H,et al.Analysis of growth,development and yield compositions of winter wheat growing in original and Northern region[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2003,36(1):31.
[6]房世波,谭凯炎,任三学.夜间增温对冬小麦生长和产量影响的实验研究[J].中国农业科学,2010,43(15):3251.FANG S B,TAN K Y,REN S X.Winter wheat yields decline with spring higher night temperature by controlled experiments[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2010,43(15):3251.
[7]马树庆,杨菲芸.我国霜期、霜冻时空特征及其对气候变暖的响应[J].吉林气象,2015,22(2):4.MA S Q,YANG F Y.Spatial and temporal characteristics of frost date in China and its response to climate warming[J].Meteorology of Jilin,2015,22(2):4.
[8]LIU Q,PIAO S L,JANSSENS I A.Extension of the growing season increases vegetation exposure to frost[J].Nature Communication,2018,44(9):426.
[9]申双和.农业气象学原理[M].北京:气象出版社,2016:122.SHEN S H.Principles of agricultural meteorology[M].Beijing:Meteorological Press,2016:122.
[10]EASTERLING D R.Recent changes in frost days and the frost-free season in the United States[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2002,83(9):1327.
[11]ERLAT E,TURKEYSUR M.Analysis of observed variability and trends in numbers of frost days in Turkey for the period 1950-2010[J].International Journal of Climatology,2012,32(12):1889.
[12]ALEXANDER L V.Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes:A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond[J].Weather and Climate Extremes,2016,11(8):4.
[13]SCHWARTS M D,REITE B E.Changes in north American spring[J].International Journal of Climatology,2000,20(8):929.
[14]ROBESON S M.Increasing growing-season length during the20th century[J].Climatic Change,2002,52(2):219.
[15]刘静,殷淑燕.1960-2014年秦岭南北无霜期时空变化特征及对比分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(4):615.LIU J,YIN S Y,Spatio-temporal variations and comparative analysis of the frost-free period in the northern and southern regions of the QINLING mountains from 1960-2014[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2017,26(4):615.
[16]宁晓菊,张丽君,杨群涛.1951年以来中国无霜期的变化趋势[J].地理学报,2015,70(11):1811.NING X J,YANG L J,YANG Q T.Trends in the frost-free period in China from 1951to 2012[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(11):1811.
[17]CRIMP S,BAKARA K S,KOKICO P,et al.Bayesian spacetime model to analyze frost risk for agriculture in Southeast Australia[J].International Journal of Climatology,2015,35(8):20.
[18]马彬,张勃,贾艳青,等.1961-2014年中国内陆农业区异常初、终霜日时空变化及其与环流因子的关系[J].气象学报,2017,75(4):661.MA B,ZHANG B,JIA Y Q,et al.Temporal and spatial variations of the first and last frost dates in China’s inland agricultural region from 1961to 2014and their relationships with circulation factors[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2017,75(4):661.
[19]ZHENG B,CHAPMAN S C,CHRISTOPHER J T,et al.Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheat belt[J].Journal of Experimental Botany,2015,66(12):3611.
[20]AWAYA Y,TANAKA K,KODANI E,et al.Responses of a beech stand to late spring frost damage in Morioka,Japan[J].Forest Ecology&Management,2009,257(12):2359.
[21]武永峰,胡新,钟秀丽,等.农田尺度下冬小麦晚霜冻害空间差异及原因分析[J].中国农业科学,2014,47(21):4246.WU Y F,HU X,ZHONG X L,et al.Study on spatial differences of late frost injury to winter wheat and its reasons at field scale[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2014,47(21):4246.
[22]孙福在,赵廷昌,杨建民,等.杏树上冰核细菌种类及其冰核活性与杏花霜冻关系的研究[J].中国农业科学,2000,33(6):50.SUN F Z,ZHAO T C,YANG J M,et al.Species of ice nucleation active bacteria on the apricot and the relationship between their activity and flower frost[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2000,33(6):50.
[23]朱佳,梁永超,丁燕芳,等.硅对低温胁迫下冬小麦幼苗光合作用及相关生理特性的影响[J].中国农业科学,2006,39(9):1780.ZHU J,LIANG Y C,DING Y F,et al.Effect of silicon on photosynthesis and its related physiological parameters in two winter wheat cultivars under cold stress[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2006,39(9):1780.
[24]顾万龙,姬兴杰,朱业玉.河南省冬小麦晚霜冻害风险区划[J].灾害学,2012,27(3):39.GU W L,JI X J,ZHU Y Y.Risk regionalization of winter wheat late freezing injury in Henan Province[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2012,27(3):39.
[25]陈凯奇,米娜.辽宁省玉米低温冷害和霜冻灾害风险评估[J].气象与环境学报,2016,32(1):89.CHEN K Q,MI N.Risk evaluation on maize cold damage and frost damage in Liaoning Province[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2016,32(1):89.
[26]韩荣青,李维京,艾婉秀,等.中国北方初霜冻日期变化及其对农业的影响[J].地理学报,2010,65(5):525.HAN R Q,LI W J,AI W X,et al.The climatic variability and influence of first frost dates in Northern China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(5):525.
[27]李芬,张建新,武永利,等.近50年山西终霜冻的时空分布及其影响因素[J].地理学报,2013,68(11):1472.LI F,ZHANG J X,WU Y L,et al.Spatio-temporal distribution of final frost in Shanxi in recent 50years and its influencing factors[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(11):1472.
[28]中国气象局政策法规司.气象标准汇编[M].北京:气象出版社,2011:67.China Meteorological Administration Policy and Regulatory Division.Meteorological standards compilation[M].Beijing:Meteorological Press,2011:67.
[29]王晾晾,杨晓强,李帅.东北地区水稻霜冻灾害风险评估与区划[J].气象与环境学报,2012,28(5):40.WANG L L,YANG X Q,LI S.The risk evaluation and division on rice frost damage in northeast China[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2012,28(5):40.
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