落叶松碳汇造林项目CCER开发成本动态核算研究
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摘要
从碳交易视角出发,构建中国核证减排量核算机理框架与开发成本评估模型,利用关键信息人访谈、文献资料与中国自愿减排交易信息平台查阅等途径获取的数据参数资料,实证分析了河北省丰宁县落叶松造林项目中国核证减排量开发成本及其动态分布,并探讨了其敏感性。结果表明:在当前条件下,落叶松造林项目中国核证减排量的开发成本在不同项目期内存在一定差异,在1.5～191.1元/吨之间;造林规模与贴现利率单因素变化,以及一次性开发成本或连续性签发成本多因素联合变化是影响中国核证减排量开发成本的重要因素;但不同市场条件下中国核证减排量开发成本仍低于碳汇收益。最后,根据研究结论,给出了相应的政策启示。
Accounting mechanism and framework of CCER and its development cost assessment model were to be constructed from the perspective of carbon trading.Many parameter data is obtained by interviewing with key information people and collecting from literatures and transaction information platform of voluntary emission reduction transactions in China.And then,the development cost of CCER of Larix Gmelinii(Rupr.) Kuzen.afforestation project in Fengning county of Hebei province were to be measured.Meanwhile,sensitivity of development costs were also be empirical tested under different scenarios.The results indicated that:the development cost of CCER issued by the Larix Gmelinii(Rupr.) Kuzen.afforestation project is different under different project period,changing from 1.5 to 191.1 yuan/ton;the afforestation area and different discount rate has a significant negative effect on the development cost of CCER,while the one-time development costs or the continuous issue cost have a significant positive effect on the development cost of CCER.Although the development cost of CCER is significantly affected by the market environments and afforestation area,the development costs of CCER are still lower than the gains.Finally,according to the conclusions,the policy recommendations are proposed.
Accounting mechanism and framework of CCER and its development cost assessment model were to be constructed from the perspective of carbon trading.Many parameter data is obtained by interviewing with key information people and collecting from literatures and transaction information platform of voluntary emission reduction transactions in China.And then,the development cost of CCER of Larix Gmelinii(Rupr.) Kuzen.afforestation project in Fengning county of Hebei province were to be measured.Meanwhile,sensitivity of development costs were also be empirical tested under different scenarios.The results indicated that:the development cost of CCER issued by the Larix Gmelinii(Rupr.) Kuzen.afforestation project is different under different project period,changing from 1.5 to 191.1 yuan/ton;the afforestation area and different discount rate has a significant negative effect on the development cost of CCER,while the one-time development costs or the continuous issue cost have a significant positive effect on the development cost of CCER.Although the development cost of CCER is significantly affected by the market environments and afforestation area,the development costs of CCER are still lower than the gains.Finally,according to the conclusions,the policy recommendations are proposed.
引文
[1] Zhou W,Gong P,Gao L.A Review of Carbon Forest Development in China[J].Forests,2017(8).
[2] 黄宰胜,陈钦.林业碳汇经济价值评价及其影响因素分析——基于碳控排企业支付意愿的调查[J].统计与信息论坛,2017(6).
[3] 曹先磊,张颖,石小亮,等.竹子造林CCER项目碳汇价值动态评估及敏感性分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017(2).
[4] 曹先磊,张颖.云南思茅松碳汇造林项目减排量、经济价值及其敏感性分析[J].生态环境学报,2017(2).
[5] 刘亚茜.河北地区华北落叶松、杨树单木生物量、碳贮量及其分配规律[D].保定:河北农业大学,2012.
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[8] Benítez P C,Obersteiner M.Site Identification for Carbon Sequestration in Latin America:A Grid-based Economic Approach[J].Forest Policy & Economics,2006(6).
[9] 仲伟周,邢治斌.中国各省造林再造林工程的固碳成本收益分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012(9).
[10] 黄宰胜,陈钦.基于造林成本法的林业碳汇成本收益影响因素分析[J].资源科学,2016(3).
[11] 曾程,沈月琴,朱臻,等.基于造林再造林项目的杉木固碳成本收益分析[J].浙江农林大学学报,2015(1).
[12] 张治军,张小全,朱建华,等.广西主要人工林类型固碳成本核算[J].林业科学,2010(3).
[13] 张田田.华北落叶松人工林生物量与碳储量的研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2012.
[14] 陈静.企业投资碳汇林的成本效益分析[D].杭州:浙江农林大学,2015.
[15] 梅园,綦久竑,马骏.发展林业碳汇交易市场[J].中国金融,2016(23).
(1)网址:http://cdm.ccchina.gov.cn/archiver/cdmcn/UpFile/Files/Default/20161220132507019533.pdf
(2)落叶松林碳库主要包括地上生物量、地下生物量、枯死木、枯落物、土壤有机碳5大碳库。与项目基线情景相比,落叶松造林活动导致枯死木、枯落物、土壤有机碳库的碳储量均不会降低,故可保守地忽略不计。
(3)林地清理、整地或竹林经营过程中可能存在由于森林或其他木本植物生物质燃烧导致CH4、N2O、CO2等温室气体排放,由于本项目不涉及全面清林和炼山等有控制火烧;因此,根据方法学,本研究主要考虑项目边界内森林火灾引起生物质燃烧造成的温室气体排放。对于项目事前估计,由于通常无法预测项目边界内的火灾发生情况,因此可以不考虑森林火灾造成的项目边界内温室气体排放。
(1)理论上讲,在无林地上开展碳汇造林活动前,原有灌草等植被继续生长达不到政府定义森林的阀值标准,故基线情景下碳汇量极少,基本可以忽略不计;此外,河北丰宁县落叶松碳汇造林项目是在宜林荒山开展的碳汇造林活动,造林前不涉及农业活动的转移,并且造林过程中选择苗木等都是基于就近原则,涉及项目边界外交通工具燃油排放非常少,因此把基线碳汇量和碳泄露量设定为零。
[2] 黄宰胜,陈钦.林业碳汇经济价值评价及其影响因素分析——基于碳控排企业支付意愿的调查[J].统计与信息论坛,2017(6).
[3] 曹先磊,张颖,石小亮,等.竹子造林CCER项目碳汇价值动态评估及敏感性分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017(2).
[4] 曹先磊,张颖.云南思茅松碳汇造林项目减排量、经济价值及其敏感性分析[J].生态环境学报,2017(2).
[5] 刘亚茜.河北地区华北落叶松、杨树单木生物量、碳贮量及其分配规律[D].保定:河北农业大学,2012.
[6] 冯亮明,肖友智.造林再造林碳汇项目的成本收益分析[J].林业经济问题,2008(5).
[7] Van Kooten G C,Sohngen B.Economics of Forest Ecosystem Carbon Sinks:A Review[J].International Review of Environmental & Resource Economics,2007(2).
[8] Benítez P C,Obersteiner M.Site Identification for Carbon Sequestration in Latin America:A Grid-based Economic Approach[J].Forest Policy & Economics,2006(6).
[9] 仲伟周,邢治斌.中国各省造林再造林工程的固碳成本收益分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012(9).
[10] 黄宰胜,陈钦.基于造林成本法的林业碳汇成本收益影响因素分析[J].资源科学,2016(3).
[11] 曾程,沈月琴,朱臻,等.基于造林再造林项目的杉木固碳成本收益分析[J].浙江农林大学学报,2015(1).
[12] 张治军,张小全,朱建华,等.广西主要人工林类型固碳成本核算[J].林业科学,2010(3).
[13] 张田田.华北落叶松人工林生物量与碳储量的研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2012.
[14] 陈静.企业投资碳汇林的成本效益分析[D].杭州:浙江农林大学,2015.
[15] 梅园,綦久竑,马骏.发展林业碳汇交易市场[J].中国金融,2016(23).
(1)网址:http://cdm.ccchina.gov.cn/archiver/cdmcn/UpFile/Files/Default/20161220132507019533.pdf
(2)落叶松林碳库主要包括地上生物量、地下生物量、枯死木、枯落物、土壤有机碳5大碳库。与项目基线情景相比,落叶松造林活动导致枯死木、枯落物、土壤有机碳库的碳储量均不会降低,故可保守地忽略不计。
(3)林地清理、整地或竹林经营过程中可能存在由于森林或其他木本植物生物质燃烧导致CH4、N2O、CO2等温室气体排放,由于本项目不涉及全面清林和炼山等有控制火烧;因此,根据方法学,本研究主要考虑项目边界内森林火灾引起生物质燃烧造成的温室气体排放。对于项目事前估计,由于通常无法预测项目边界内的火灾发生情况,因此可以不考虑森林火灾造成的项目边界内温室气体排放。
(1)理论上讲,在无林地上开展碳汇造林活动前,原有灌草等植被继续生长达不到政府定义森林的阀值标准,故基线情景下碳汇量极少,基本可以忽略不计;此外,河北丰宁县落叶松碳汇造林项目是在宜林荒山开展的碳汇造林活动,造林前不涉及农业活动的转移,并且造林过程中选择苗木等都是基于就近原则,涉及项目边界外交通工具燃油排放非常少,因此把基线碳汇量和碳泄露量设定为零。