成都积雨云形成的层结条件分析
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摘要
为了研究成都积雨云发生时的层结条件,采用中国气象局的探空资料和地面观测资料统计了成都地区2009-2013年积雨云出现时的对流指数和500 hPa、700 hPa、850 hPa 3个层次的物理量,分析了西南涡、低空切变线、低空急流4个影响系统下积雨云产生时的各指数演变图,得出以下结论:(1)春季,K指数在22℃～34℃, SI在1℃～8℃,对流稳定指数在-1℃～12℃,抬升指数在0℃～7℃,A指数在0℃～14℃,成都易有积雨云产生。(2)夏季,K指数在33℃～41℃,SI在-2℃～3℃,对流稳定指数在-15℃～2℃,抬升指数在-3℃～1℃,A指数在2℃～15℃,成都易有积雨云产生。(3)秋季,K指数在29℃～39℃,SI在-2℃～5℃,对流稳定指数在-13℃～5℃,抬升指数在-2℃～4℃,A指数在3℃～15℃,成都易有积雨云发生。
In order to study the stratification conditions of cumulonimbus clouds in Chengdu, the convection index of cumulonimbus clouds in Chengdu from 2009 to 2013 and the physical quantities at three levels of 500 hPa,700 hPa and 850 hPa were calculated by using the sounding data and ground observation data from China Meteorological Administration. The exponential evolution diagrams of cumulonimbus clouds under the four influence systems of southwest vortex, low-altitude shear line and low-altitude jet are analyzed, and the following conclusions are obtained:(1) In spring, the K index is between 22 ℃ and 34 ℃, SI is between 1 ℃ and 8 ℃,convection stability index is between 1 ℃ and 12 ℃, uplift index is between 0 ℃ and 7 ℃ and A index is between 0 ℃ and 14 ℃.(2) In summer,K index is between 33 ℃ and 41 ℃, SI is between-2 ℃ and 3 ℃, convection stability index is between-15 ℃ and 2 ℃,uplift index is between-3 ℃ and 1 ℃,A index is between 2 ℃ to 15 ℃. It is easy to produce cumulonimbus clouds in Chengdu.(3) In autumn, the K index is between 29 ℃ and 39 ℃,the SI index is between-2 ℃ and 5 ℃, the convection stability index is between-13 ℃ and 5 ℃, and the uplift index is between-2 ℃ and 4 ℃,A index between 3 ℃ and 15 ℃ and the cumulonimbus is easy to occur in Chengdu.
In order to study the stratification conditions of cumulonimbus clouds in Chengdu, the convection index of cumulonimbus clouds in Chengdu from 2009 to 2013 and the physical quantities at three levels of 500 hPa,700 hPa and 850 hPa were calculated by using the sounding data and ground observation data from China Meteorological Administration. The exponential evolution diagrams of cumulonimbus clouds under the four influence systems of southwest vortex, low-altitude shear line and low-altitude jet are analyzed, and the following conclusions are obtained:(1) In spring, the K index is between 22 ℃ and 34 ℃, SI is between 1 ℃ and 8 ℃,convection stability index is between 1 ℃ and 12 ℃, uplift index is between 0 ℃ and 7 ℃ and A index is between 0 ℃ and 14 ℃.(2) In summer,K index is between 33 ℃ and 41 ℃, SI is between-2 ℃ and 3 ℃, convection stability index is between-15 ℃ and 2 ℃,uplift index is between-3 ℃ and 1 ℃,A index is between 2 ℃ to 15 ℃. It is easy to produce cumulonimbus clouds in Chengdu.(3) In autumn, the K index is between 29 ℃ and 39 ℃,the SI index is between-2 ℃ and 5 ℃, the convection stability index is between-13 ℃ and 5 ℃, and the uplift index is between-2 ℃ and 4 ℃,A index between 3 ℃ and 15 ℃ and the cumulonimbus is easy to occur in Chengdu.
引文
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[14] 唐钱奎,鲁燕,黄先伦.“8.26”成都区域性短时暴雨天气过程的对流指数分析[J].成都信息工程学院学报,2010,25(5):518-523.
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[16] 张建春,王海霞,陶祖钰.对流有效位能预报能力的统计分析[J].暴雨灾害,2014,33(3):290-296.
[2] 立平良三,胡圣昌.积雨云的预报[J].气象科技,1982(1):62-64.
[3] Rohit Chakraborty,Saurabh Das,Animesh Maitra.Prediction of convective events using multi-frequency radiometric observations at Kolkata[J].Atmospheric Research,2016,169.
[4] Kunz M..The skill of convective parameters and indices to predict isolated and severe thunderstorms[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Science,2007,7(62).
[5] P R Jayakrishnan,C A Babu.Assessment of Convective Activity Using Stability Indices as Inferred from Radiosonde and MODIS Data[J].Atmospheric and Climate Sciences,2014,4(1).
[6] M.Korologou,H.Flocas,H.Michalopoulou.Developing an index for heavy convective rainfall forecasting over a Mediterranean coastal area[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Science,2014,14(8).
[7] 钟晓平.强对流降水前大气层结因子的分析[J].应用气象学报,1993(4):408-414.
[8] 郁淑华.四川盆地大范围强暴雨过程的合成分析[J].高原气象,1984(3):58-67.
[9] 郁淑华.四川盆地大范围强暴雨的合成分析——(二)温湿场和层结稳定度[J].高原气象,1986(1):62-70.
[10] 肖递祥,杨康权,徐栋夫,等.副高西侧四川盆地两次极端暴雨过程分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2015,35(4):10-18.
[11] 肖递祥,杨康权,俞小鼎,等.四川盆地极端暴雨过程基本特征分析[J].气象,2017,43(10):1165-1175.
[12] 王佳津,肖递祥,王春学.四川盆地极端暴雨水汽输送特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(10):1768-1783.
[13] 肖递祥,顾清源,祁生秀.2008年7月14—15日川西暴雨过程的温度层结变化分析[J].暴雨灾害,2009,28(1):8-13.
[14] 唐钱奎,鲁燕,黄先伦.“8.26”成都区域性短时暴雨天气过程的对流指数分析[J].成都信息工程学院学报,2010,25(5):518-523.
[15] 冯新灵,罗隆诚,邱丽丽.成都未来气候变化趋势的R/S分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2008(1):83-87.
[16] 张建春,王海霞,陶祖钰.对流有效位能预报能力的统计分析[J].暴雨灾害,2014,33(3):290-296.