PTA协定中服务自由化“深度”的测量及对贸易增长影响的实证
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摘要
随着全球价值链的深入发展,服务贸易的重要性与日俱增。现有WTO框架下的多边服务贸易规则(GATS)已无法适应全球价值链发展的需要,与此同时,包含服务贸易新规则的优惠贸易协定(PTA)开始大量涌现。文章结合国外研究方法,初步构建了一套专门衡量服务贸易协定深度的简易指数,对近年来较有代表性的PTA进行衡量。研究结果发现,PTA在"GATS+"和"GATS-X"议题上不仅提升了服务贸易相关条款的"表面深度",还通过增加有约束力的条款及时锁定现有成果,进一步提高了服务自由化的"实际深度"。在此基础上,文章重点从理论角度分析了服务自由化对全球服务贸易增长以及对具有全球价值链特征的制造业出口的影响路径,并构建引力模型进行了实证检验。研究结果显示,服务贸易的深度自由化不仅可以促进一国服务贸易的进口,对一国服务贸易的出口也发挥着更为重要的推动作用,并能够依托全球价值链进一步推动制成品贸易的增长。
With the in-depth development of Global Value Chains( GVCs),the importance of trade in services is increasing. The existing multilateral service trade rules( GATS) under the WTO framework have been unable to adapt to the development needs of GVCs. At the same time,preferential trade agreement( PTA) containing new rules for trade in services have begun to emerge.Combining with foreign research methods,this paper initially constructs a set of simple index that measures the depth of service trade agreements. It measures the most representative PTAs in recent years and finds that PTAs not only increase the apparent depth of the provisions of service trade,but also further increase the real depth of service liberalization by adding binding terms and timely locking in existing results under both of GATS + and GATS-X issues. On this basis,this paper focuses on the theoretical perspective of the impact of service liberalization on the growth of global service trade and the export of manufacturing with GVCs characteristics,and builds a gravitational model based on historical data for empirical testing. The results show that the deep liberalization of trade in services can not only promote the services import of a country,but also play a more important role in promoting the services export of a country,and can further promote the growth of trade in manufactured goods based on GVCs.
With the in-depth development of Global Value Chains( GVCs),the importance of trade in services is increasing. The existing multilateral service trade rules( GATS) under the WTO framework have been unable to adapt to the development needs of GVCs. At the same time,preferential trade agreement( PTA) containing new rules for trade in services have begun to emerge.Combining with foreign research methods,this paper initially constructs a set of simple index that measures the depth of service trade agreements. It measures the most representative PTAs in recent years and finds that PTAs not only increase the apparent depth of the provisions of service trade,but also further increase the real depth of service liberalization by adding binding terms and timely locking in existing results under both of GATS + and GATS-X issues. On this basis,this paper focuses on the theoretical perspective of the impact of service liberalization on the growth of global service trade and the export of manufacturing with GVCs characteristics,and builds a gravitational model based on historical data for empirical testing. The results show that the deep liberalization of trade in services can not only promote the services import of a country,but also play a more important role in promoting the services export of a country,and can further promote the growth of trade in manufactured goods based on GVCs.
引文
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[3]Hofmanm,Clauda,Alberto Osnago,Michele Ruta.Horizontal Depth:A New Database on the Content of Deep Agreements.Policy Research Working Paper,No.WPS 7981.Washington,D.C.:World Bank Group,2017.
[4]Lawrence,R.Z.,Instution B..Regionalism,Multilateralism and Deeper Integration[J].Georage Wahington Journal of International Law&Economics,1996,73(4):792.
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[6]Orefice,G.,Rocha,R..Deep Integration and Production Networks:An Empirical Analysis.The World Economy,2014,37(1):106-136.
[7]Osnago,Alberto,Nadia Rocha,Michele Ruta.Deep Integration Trade Agreements and Global Value Chains.Working Paper,World Bank,2016.
[8]WTO.The WTO and Preferential Trade Agreements:From Co-existence to Coherence.World Trade Report 2011.https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/wtrll_e.htm,2011.
[9]Tarr D G,Shepotylo O..Poverty Effects of Russia's WTO Accession:modeling“real”households and endogenous productivity effects[M].The World Bank,2005.
[10]陈丽丽,龚静.区域服务贸易协定、制度因素与服务贸易促进体系研究---基于49国之间双边服务贸易流量面板数据的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2014,40(11):132-143.
[11]高疆,盛斌.贸易协定质量会影响全球生产网略吗?[J].世界经济研究,2018(8):37-42.
[12]孟雪,陈靓,徐丽青.中韩FTA金融服务开放度分层假设与影响分析[J].世界经济研究,2017(04):33-42.
[13]周念利,林珊,周文灿.区域服务贸易安排中“GATS-”承诺的服务贸易影响---基于发展中经济体视角的经验研究[J].亚太经济,2015,31(1):37-42.
(1)所有指数均取计算数值实际值小数点后两位。
(1)尽管美国于2018年宣布退出TPP,但是该协定仍然代表了由美国主导的服务贸易自由化的意愿,是区域优惠贸易协定的里程碑,有必要对其进行分析。
(2)经比较,CPTPP和TPP中与服务贸易相关的内容基本一致,不影响协定深度的测算,因此,后文将两个协定视为同一协定进行测算,并根据最新的CPTPP情况进行描述。
(1)该方法更适合对大量0数值数据和缺失数据样本进行对数线性化后的引力方程回归,且模拟出来的结果也是稳健的。
[2]Horn,H.,P.C.Mavroidis,P.C.,A.Sapir.Beyond the WTO?An Anatomy of EU and US Preferential Trade Agreements.The World E-conomy,2010(33):1565-1588.
[3]Hofmanm,Clauda,Alberto Osnago,Michele Ruta.Horizontal Depth:A New Database on the Content of Deep Agreements.Policy Research Working Paper,No.WPS 7981.Washington,D.C.:World Bank Group,2017.
[4]Lawrence,R.Z.,Instution B..Regionalism,Multilateralism and Deeper Integration[J].Georage Wahington Journal of International Law&Economics,1996,73(4):792.
[5]Nords,H.,D.Rouzet.The Impact of Services Trade Restrictiveness on Trade Flows:First Estimates[J].Paris:OECD Trade Policy Papers,2015,No.178,OECD Publishing.
[6]Orefice,G.,Rocha,R..Deep Integration and Production Networks:An Empirical Analysis.The World Economy,2014,37(1):106-136.
[7]Osnago,Alberto,Nadia Rocha,Michele Ruta.Deep Integration Trade Agreements and Global Value Chains.Working Paper,World Bank,2016.
[8]WTO.The WTO and Preferential Trade Agreements:From Co-existence to Coherence.World Trade Report 2011.https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/wtrll_e.htm,2011.
[9]Tarr D G,Shepotylo O..Poverty Effects of Russia's WTO Accession:modeling“real”households and endogenous productivity effects[M].The World Bank,2005.
[10]陈丽丽,龚静.区域服务贸易协定、制度因素与服务贸易促进体系研究---基于49国之间双边服务贸易流量面板数据的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2014,40(11):132-143.
[11]高疆,盛斌.贸易协定质量会影响全球生产网略吗?[J].世界经济研究,2018(8):37-42.
[12]孟雪,陈靓,徐丽青.中韩FTA金融服务开放度分层假设与影响分析[J].世界经济研究,2017(04):33-42.
[13]周念利,林珊,周文灿.区域服务贸易安排中“GATS-”承诺的服务贸易影响---基于发展中经济体视角的经验研究[J].亚太经济,2015,31(1):37-42.
(1)所有指数均取计算数值实际值小数点后两位。
(1)尽管美国于2018年宣布退出TPP,但是该协定仍然代表了由美国主导的服务贸易自由化的意愿,是区域优惠贸易协定的里程碑,有必要对其进行分析。
(2)经比较,CPTPP和TPP中与服务贸易相关的内容基本一致,不影响协定深度的测算,因此,后文将两个协定视为同一协定进行测算,并根据最新的CPTPP情况进行描述。
(1)该方法更适合对大量0数值数据和缺失数据样本进行对数线性化后的引力方程回归,且模拟出来的结果也是稳健的。