近60年无为县降水变化趋势研究
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摘要
为了揭示无为县降水的变化趋势和规律,服务于水资源管理、生态建设等方面,采用线性倾向性估计、MannKendall突变检测、小波分析等方法,对无为县1957—2016年降水资料进行了分析。结果表明:无为县年、夏季和冬季的降水量呈上升趋势,春季和秋季的降水量呈下降趋势;年降水日数呈下降趋势,四季降水日数与其降水量保持相同的变化趋势;年和四季的平均降水强度均呈上升趋势;年平均降水强度的上升主导了年降水量的上升趋势,春季和秋季的降水日数的下降主导了春、秋两季降水量的下降趋势,夏季和冬季的降水日数和平均降水强度的上升共同主导了夏、冬两季降水量的上升趋势;年降水量没有发生突变,春季、夏季、秋季和冬季的降水量分别在1993年、1979年、1985年、1987年发生突变;年和四季降水量存在丰枯交替的多周期变化规律,目前均处于偏多阶段并将持续较长时间;年、春季、夏季和秋季的降水量与相应时段的平均气温存在一定的负相关关系,而冬季的降水量与其平均气温则存在一定的正相关关系。
To reveal the trend and pattern of the precipitation in Wuwei County for the purpose of resource management and ecological construction,we utilized linear tendency estimation,Mann-Kendall mutation detection,and wavelet analysis and other methods to analyze the precipitation information in Wuwei County from 1957 to 2016.The results demonstrated that:based on precipitation in Wuwei County,there was an uptrend in summer and winter,and a downtrend in spring and autumn;for annual precipitation,there was an uptrend.The annual precipitation days showed a downward trend,and the precipitation days in the four seasons were the same as precipitation amounts in the four seasons.The annual and seasonal average precipitation intensities showed the upward trend.The annual and seasonal precipitation intensities increased year by year.The declining number of precipitation days in spring and autumn dominated the downtrend of precipitation in these two seasons.The growing number of precipitation days as well as the average precipitation intensity resulted in the uptrend of precipitation in summer and winter.There was no significant change in annual precipitation,while major changes in precipitation happened in spring in 1993,in summer in 1979,in autumn 1985,and in winter in 1987.The annual precipitation and each season precipitation had the cyclical variation pattern of abundant and dry alternation.At present,annual and seasonal rainfall amounts are all in the rich stages and will last for a long time.There is a negative correlation between annual precipitation,spring,summer,and autumn precipitation,and the corresponding average temperatures.There is a positive correlation between winter precipitation and average temperature.
To reveal the trend and pattern of the precipitation in Wuwei County for the purpose of resource management and ecological construction,we utilized linear tendency estimation,Mann-Kendall mutation detection,and wavelet analysis and other methods to analyze the precipitation information in Wuwei County from 1957 to 2016.The results demonstrated that:based on precipitation in Wuwei County,there was an uptrend in summer and winter,and a downtrend in spring and autumn;for annual precipitation,there was an uptrend.The annual precipitation days showed a downward trend,and the precipitation days in the four seasons were the same as precipitation amounts in the four seasons.The annual and seasonal average precipitation intensities showed the upward trend.The annual and seasonal precipitation intensities increased year by year.The declining number of precipitation days in spring and autumn dominated the downtrend of precipitation in these two seasons.The growing number of precipitation days as well as the average precipitation intensity resulted in the uptrend of precipitation in summer and winter.There was no significant change in annual precipitation,while major changes in precipitation happened in spring in 1993,in summer in 1979,in autumn 1985,and in winter in 1987.The annual precipitation and each season precipitation had the cyclical variation pattern of abundant and dry alternation.At present,annual and seasonal rainfall amounts are all in the rich stages and will last for a long time.There is a negative correlation between annual precipitation,spring,summer,and autumn precipitation,and the corresponding average temperatures.There is a positive correlation between winter precipitation and average temperature.
引文
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[2]潘舟艳,闫丽娟,李广,等.榆中县近42年降水突变及周期变化分析[J].甘肃农业大学学报,2016,51(6):102-109.
[3]马荣.延安市45年降水变化趋势及突变特征分析[J].延安大学学报:自然科学版,2016,35(3):95-99.
[4]张红英,李晶晶,段娟,等.气候变暖背景下长治市极端降水变化趋势[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(32):137-143.
[5]杨萍,王乃昂,张海峰,等.青海湖地区降水变化趋势和突变分析[J].青海大学学报:自然科学版,2013,31(5):69-73.
[6]黄济琛,陆宝宏,徐玲玲,等.变化条件下常德市降水气温特征分析[J].水文,2016,36(5):85-91.
[7]娄必友,陈俊.猫跳河上游流域汛期降水特征及变化趋势[J].四川水力发电,2014,33(3):84-88.
[8]万敏,李家启,张爽,等.北碚区降水时空分布及变化趋势分析[J].西南师范大学学报:自然科学版,2013,38(7):122-128.
[9]徐建新,陈学凯,黄鑫.湄潭县降水突变特征分析[J].华北水利水电大学学报:自然科学版,2014,35(2):6-11.
[10]韩璐,曹阳,常静,等.近50年来辽宁省气温和降水突变特征分析[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2014,12(3):310-315.
[11]韩丹,程先富,张群,等.安徽省1961—2007年降水特征分析[J].人民长江,2011,42(23):23-26.
[12]王秋龙.安徽省近50余年降水量时空变化特征分析[J].测绘工程,2014,23(11):19-24.
[13]江俊杰,孙卫国.1959—2007年安徽省降水时空变化特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(1):27-33.
[14]王润科.武都区50年气温与降水的变化趋势及相关性分析[J].天水师范学院学报,2015,35(2):46-49.
[15]罗启华,郭生练,李天元,等.江汉平原区域降水与气温长期变化趋势分析[J].长江科学院院报,2011,28(3):10-14.
[16]孟鹏,安昕.沈阳市不同时间尺度降水趋势及突变研究[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(33):256-262.
[17]周雪英,段均泽,李晓川,等.1960—2011年巴音布鲁克山区降水变化趋势与突变特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2013,7(5):19-24.
[18]王秀萍,王烁,李潇潇.1971—2013年大连地区降水变化趋势分析[J].气象与环境学报,2016,32(3):47-52.
[19]肖义,唐少华,陈华,等.湘江流域1960—2008年降水气温变化趋势[J].人民长江,2013,44(3):10-12,32.