三亚入境旅游客源市场结构及演化特征研究
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摘要
分析入境客源市场结构及其演化特征,可为目的地旅游国际化水平提升提供研究支撑。基于2007—2016年三亚入境旅游客源市场数据,对三亚21个入境客源市场的地理集中度、亲景度、市场竞争态进行了分析。结果表明:三亚市近十年来入境旅游客源市场逐渐趋于分散,结构较稳定,多元化竞争格局逐步形成;主要入境旅游客源市场亲景度差异明显,但年际变化不大;洲内客源市场亲景度总体较稳定,洲际市场呈现平稳向好态势;入境客源市场竞争态以瘦狗市场和幼童市场为主,且出现明显的交替现象。在此基础上,进行三亚入境客源市场亲景度和市场竞争态的关联分析,发现两者相关性不强,最后就三亚入境旅游客源市场结构优化相关问题进行了探讨。
Analysis of the structure of the inbound foreign tourism market and the evolution of characteristics could provide the research support for the internationalization of destination tourism. Based on the data of inbound tourism market of Sanya from 2007 to2016,the geographical concentration index methods,preference scale and competition state of 21 inbound tourism markets in Sanya were analyzed. The results showed that the main tourism market in Sanya was gradually dispersed in the past ten years,the structure had more stable and the diversified competition pattern had gradually formed. The different markets had obvious differences in preference scale,but it had little change during the past years,the preference scale of the tourism market in the continent was generally stable,and the intercontinental market generally presenteds a steady trend. The main competitive states of the inbound tourism market were the lean-dog market and the young-child market,and there were obvious alternation phenomena. On this basis,the correlation analysis of the inbound tourism market's preference index and competition state in Sanya was carried out,and it was found that the correlation between the two was not strong. Finally,this paper discussed the issues related to the structure optimization of Sanya's inbound tourism market.
Analysis of the structure of the inbound foreign tourism market and the evolution of characteristics could provide the research support for the internationalization of destination tourism. Based on the data of inbound tourism market of Sanya from 2007 to2016,the geographical concentration index methods,preference scale and competition state of 21 inbound tourism markets in Sanya were analyzed. The results showed that the main tourism market in Sanya was gradually dispersed in the past ten years,the structure had more stable and the diversified competition pattern had gradually formed. The different markets had obvious differences in preference scale,but it had little change during the past years,the preference scale of the tourism market in the continent was generally stable,and the intercontinental market generally presenteds a steady trend. The main competitive states of the inbound tourism market were the lean-dog market and the young-child market,and there were obvious alternation phenomena. On this basis,the correlation analysis of the inbound tourism market's preference index and competition state in Sanya was carried out,and it was found that the correlation between the two was not strong. Finally,this paper discussed the issues related to the structure optimization of Sanya's inbound tourism market.
引文
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[2]Burger C J,Dohnal M,Kathrada M,et al. Practitioners Guide to Time Series Methods for Tourism Demand Forecasting:A Case Study of Durban,South Africa[J]. Tourism Management,2001,22(4)∶403-409.
[3]Antonio F M. Decomposing Seasonal Concentration[J]. Annals of Tourism Research,2003,30(4)∶942-956.
[4]Chu F L. A Piecewise Linear Approach to Modeling and Forecasting Demands for Macau Tourism[J]. Tourism Management,2011,32(6)∶1414-1420.
[5]保继刚,郑海燕,戴光全.桂林国内客源市场的空间结构演变[J].地理学报,2002,57(1)∶96-106.
[6]张捷,都金康,周寅康,等.自然观光旅游地客源市场的空间结构研究——以九寨沟及比较景区为例[J].地理学报,1999,54(4)∶357-364.
[7]汪德根.九华山国内客源市场空间结构与出游行为研究[J].资源开发与市场,2004,20(5)∶342-344.
[8]宣国富,陆林,汪德根,等.三亚市旅游客流空间特性研究[J].地理研究,2004,23(1)∶115-124.
[9]马耀峰,梁旺兵.基于亲景度的美国旅华市场拓展研究——以我国六大旅游热点城市为例[J].旅游学刊,2005,20(1)∶35-38.
[10]宁志中,杨蕾蕾,钟林生.中国陆地边境地区入境旅游市场的时空特征研究[J].资源科学,2014,36(6)∶1125-1132.
[11]南宇,杨永春,史婧.西北五省区入境旅游客源市场动态演化结构分析研究[J].经济地理,2011,31(9)∶1158-1165.
[12]王颖凌,刘亢,连丽娟.三亚入境旅游客源国市场动态研究[J].现代商业,2014,(5)∶90-91.
[13]蔡道成.三亚入境旅游需求影响因素研究——以韩国客源市场为例[J].科技和产业,2017,17(7)∶46-49.
[14]张振祥,傅萍,王格林.入境旅游市场创新发展策略研究——以三亚市为例[J].科技创新,2017,(4)∶69-72.
[15]杨培韬,李庆雷,杨路佳.基于亲景度、竞争态和地理集中指数的云南省入境旅游客源市场分析[J].陕西师范大学学报,2016,30(3)∶70-76.
[16]金蓉,王雪平.基于亲景度和竞争态的甘肃省入境国际旅游客源市场研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(4)∶190-194.
[17]郭安禧,黄福才.香港入境旅游客源市场竞争态与亲景度研究[J].地域研究与开发,2012,31(1)∶104-109.
[18]刘智兴,马耀峰.内蒙古入境旅游外国客源市场分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(1)∶204-208.
[19]张艳,章锦河,王浩.黄山市入境国外旅游市场亲景度与竞争态分析[J].人文地理,2007,22(2)∶43-47.