开发时滞在房价上涨中的中介效应研究
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摘要
因开发时滞已成为限制房屋供应效率的核心因素,受国内土地杠杆不断提升现象启发,我们试图验证两者的作用机制.我们首先利用实物期权模型,建立更贴近实际的二重随机微分方程,定量测算土地杠杆和开发时滞的非线性交互机制.局部均衡模型显示,在市场预期稳定的情况下,土地开发周期主要由土地杠杆(即土地价值与房屋价值的比例)决定.2002-2015年全国31个省域的面板数据回归结果显示,在有效控制人口密度等外部因素的影响后,平均来看,土地杠杆每提高100个百分点,当年开发时滞提高20个百分点.在经过时间趋势、外生事件冲击和地区位置等稳健性检验后,这一结论仍然成立.继而,建立三阶段中介效应模型,计算得到整体的中介效应为46%,但随着土地杠杆的提升,相较于时滞的间接途径,直接成本效应已成为影响房价的主要途径.而在此过程中,开发时滞对房价的影响始终是相对稳定且显著的.同时,土地杠杆存在类似的加速器效应,即随着从较低状态提高到较高状态,土地杠杆对房屋价格的正向溢出效应更强,作用力度提高约80%.上述研究证实,忽视土地杠杆过高对房地产市场的负面作用、单纯从需求端控制房价可能是不足的,凸显了从土地供给端进行结构性改革的重要性,需要将管理开发时滞纳入房地产调控整体政策框架中.
In view of development lag has become the core factor to limit the efficiency of housing supply.Inspired by the continuous upgrading of domestic land leverage, we try to verify the mechanism of land leverage and development lag. We first use real option model to establish a more practical double stochastic differential equation and partial equilibrium model shows that when the market expectation is stable, the land development cycle is mainly determined by the land lever(i.e. the ratio of land price to housing price).In the past 2002-2015 years, the panel data regression of 31 provinces in China showed that, after controlling the external factors such as population density effectively, on average, the land leverage increased by 100 percentage points, and the development lag increases 20 percentage points. This conclusion is still stable after the test of the time trend, the impact of exogenous events and the location of the region. Then, the three stage mediating effect is established, and the overall mediating effect is 46% with the promotion of land leverage, the direct cost effect has become the main way to influence housing price compared with the indirect way of development lag. At the same time, there is a similar accelerator effect in land leverage,that is, with the improvement from lower to higher level, the positive spillover effect of land leverage on housing prices is stronger, and the effect is increased by about 80%. The study highlights the importance of structural reforms from the land supply side which implies the importance of effective management of development lag as well as land leverage in the overall policy framework of real estate regulation.
In view of development lag has become the core factor to limit the efficiency of housing supply.Inspired by the continuous upgrading of domestic land leverage, we try to verify the mechanism of land leverage and development lag. We first use real option model to establish a more practical double stochastic differential equation and partial equilibrium model shows that when the market expectation is stable, the land development cycle is mainly determined by the land lever(i.e. the ratio of land price to housing price).In the past 2002-2015 years, the panel data regression of 31 provinces in China showed that, after controlling the external factors such as population density effectively, on average, the land leverage increased by 100 percentage points, and the development lag increases 20 percentage points. This conclusion is still stable after the test of the time trend, the impact of exogenous events and the location of the region. Then, the three stage mediating effect is established, and the overall mediating effect is 46% with the promotion of land leverage, the direct cost effect has become the main way to influence housing price compared with the indirect way of development lag. At the same time, there is a similar accelerator effect in land leverage,that is, with the improvement from lower to higher level, the positive spillover effect of land leverage on housing prices is stronger, and the effect is increased by about 80%. The study highlights the importance of structural reforms from the land supply side which implies the importance of effective management of development lag as well as land leverage in the overall policy framework of real estate regulation.
引文
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1.在房屋存量-增量(stock-flow)模型中,开发时滞(development lag)和供应时滞(supply lag)两个词语存在混用现象.在中文文献中,两者的内涵也极其相近,如文献[3]、[4]分别使用了开发时滞和供应时滞的表述.本文的概念与刘修岩等的“开发时滞”概念最为接近,全文统一使用“开发时滞”的表述.
2.也有一些研究将建造成本在房屋价值中所占的比例视为常数,如文献[32]、[33].
3.如考虑预售(pre-sale)制度的影响,则情况更为复杂.国内绝大多数楼盘都是先预售再竣工交楼(两者通常有1~2年的间隔),预售显然处于开工和竣工两个节点之间.如果将期房视为远期商品,预售制度可发挥“风险共担”的作用~([38]),以规避房地产市场估值和违约风险(valuation and default)两个核心风险~([39]).一些实证研究证实,虽然预售制度能够平抑现房市场的收益~([40]),但并未有直接证据显示开发商会有意识利用预售制度来调节市场供给,而且国内预售条件相对较高,一般要达到主体完工后方可预售,与香港市场的“炒楼花”式预售制度存在显著差异,并不会直接催生房地产投机.即便考虑预售作为融资渠道的作用,无论是在固定价格~([41])还是带违约罚金的预售合同~([42])中,均未发现开发商利用预售来应对市场不确定性的证据.实践中,新建房屋一旦达到预售条件,开发商倾向于早日预售,并不会选择预售时机.综上所述,预售制度不会对开发时滞造成实质性影响,未在模型中引入预售制度.感谢审稿人指出这一点.
4.可利用泰勒公式二阶展开后得到更为一般化的公式,限于篇幅,不再展开.
5.限于篇幅,FE, FD, RE, BE, FE, TW等模型结果,不再赘述.
6.我们曾考虑将土地杠杆系数视为随机变量,采用随机系数方程,但因随机系数方程会损失过多自由度,估计结果可信度降低,最终仍选用部分变系数模型.
[2]况伟大,李涛.土地出让方式、地价与房价[J].金融研究,2012(8):56-69.
[3]刘修岩,李松林,秦蒙.开发时滞、市场不确定性与城市蔓延[J].经济研究,2016(8):159-171.Liu X Y, Li S L, Qin M. Development lag, market uncertainty and urban sprawl[J]. Economic Research Journal,2016(8):159-171.
[4]钟远,朱清华,李启明.房地产市场土地供应时滞效应分析[J].建筑经济,2006(s2):156-159.
[5]邹至庄,牛霖琳.中国城镇居民住房的需求与供给[J].金融研究,2010(1):1-11.
[6]况伟大.预期、投机与中国城市房价波动[J].经济研究,2010(9):67-78.Zhu W D. Expectation, speculation and urban housing price volatility in China[J]. Economic Research Journal,2010(9):67-78.
[7] Gu G, Michael L,Cheng Y. Housing supply and its relationships with land supply[J]. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 2015, 8(3):375-395.
[8] Bar-Ilan A, Strange W C. Urban development with lags[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 1996, 39(39):87-113.
[9] Holland A S, Ott S H, Riddiough T J. The role of uncertainty in investment:An examination of competing investment models using commercial real estate data[J]. Real Estate Economics, 2000, 28(1):33-64.
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1.在房屋存量-增量(stock-flow)模型中,开发时滞(development lag)和供应时滞(supply lag)两个词语存在混用现象.在中文文献中,两者的内涵也极其相近,如文献[3]、[4]分别使用了开发时滞和供应时滞的表述.本文的概念与刘修岩等的“开发时滞”概念最为接近,全文统一使用“开发时滞”的表述.
2.也有一些研究将建造成本在房屋价值中所占的比例视为常数,如文献[32]、[33].
3.如考虑预售(pre-sale)制度的影响,则情况更为复杂.国内绝大多数楼盘都是先预售再竣工交楼(两者通常有1~2年的间隔),预售显然处于开工和竣工两个节点之间.如果将期房视为远期商品,预售制度可发挥“风险共担”的作用~([38]),以规避房地产市场估值和违约风险(valuation and default)两个核心风险~([39]).一些实证研究证实,虽然预售制度能够平抑现房市场的收益~([40]),但并未有直接证据显示开发商会有意识利用预售制度来调节市场供给,而且国内预售条件相对较高,一般要达到主体完工后方可预售,与香港市场的“炒楼花”式预售制度存在显著差异,并不会直接催生房地产投机.即便考虑预售作为融资渠道的作用,无论是在固定价格~([41])还是带违约罚金的预售合同~([42])中,均未发现开发商利用预售来应对市场不确定性的证据.实践中,新建房屋一旦达到预售条件,开发商倾向于早日预售,并不会选择预售时机.综上所述,预售制度不会对开发时滞造成实质性影响,未在模型中引入预售制度.感谢审稿人指出这一点.
4.可利用泰勒公式二阶展开后得到更为一般化的公式,限于篇幅,不再展开.
5.限于篇幅,FE, FD, RE, BE, FE, TW等模型结果,不再赘述.
6.我们曾考虑将土地杠杆系数视为随机变量,采用随机系数方程,但因随机系数方程会损失过多自由度,估计结果可信度降低,最终仍选用部分变系数模型.