美国科技创新对中国科技创新溢出效应的时变特征研究
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摘要
在理论分析的基础上,根据中美科技创新数据的结构特点,构建LT-TVP-VAR模型实证研究美国科技创新对中国科技创新溢出效应的时变特征。结果表明,美国科技创新对中国科技创新的溢出效应呈现先上升、后下降的"倒U型"形态,峰值出现于2005年,长期溢出强度大于短期。因此,应该在外部推动新一轮对外开放和妥善处理中美关系,营造良好的营商和外商投资环境;而在内部持续推动结构性改革,提升自主创新能力及经济发展的稳定性和韧性。
According to the theoretical analysis and structure characteristics of Sino-US science and technology innovation data,this paper employs the LT-TVP-VAR model to empirically study the time-varying characteristics of spillover effects of American science and technology innovation on China. Research results show that the spillover effects on Chinese science and technology innovation are showed "inverted U"pattern,with the peak appearing in 2005. In addition,the direct and indirect spillover effects of long-term are greater than those of the short term. The results reveal that externally a new round of opening-up and proper handling of Sino-US relations should be promoted,and a favorable environment for doing business and foreign investment should be created,while internally the structural reform should be promoted to enhance the capacity for independent innovation and the stability and resilience of economic development.
According to the theoretical analysis and structure characteristics of Sino-US science and technology innovation data,this paper employs the LT-TVP-VAR model to empirically study the time-varying characteristics of spillover effects of American science and technology innovation on China. Research results show that the spillover effects on Chinese science and technology innovation are showed "inverted U"pattern,with the peak appearing in 2005. In addition,the direct and indirect spillover effects of long-term are greater than those of the short term. The results reveal that externally a new round of opening-up and proper handling of Sino-US relations should be promoted,and a favorable environment for doing business and foreign investment should be created,while internally the structural reform should be promoted to enhance the capacity for independent innovation and the stability and resilience of economic development.
引文
(1)申锋,薛健飞:《从去蔽到控制---对科学技术成为意识形态的思考》,《常州大学学报(社会科学版)》2018年第5期。
(2)祝树金,段凡,李仁宇:《本国知识产权保护如何影响出口边际---基于技术创新和技术模仿的中介效应分析》,《湖南大学学报(社会科学版)》2018年第6期。
(3)张永凯:《企业技术创新模式演化分析:以苹果、三星和华为为例》,《广东财经大学学报》2018年第2期。
(1)方平:《新发展理念推进现代化经济体系建设》,《企业经济》2017年第12期。
(2)Nakajima J,West M.“Bayesian Analysis of Latent Threshold Dynamic Models”,Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,2013(2):151-164.
(1)Nakajima J,Kasuya M,Watanabe T.“Bayesian analysis of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model for the Japanese economy and monetary policy”,Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,2011(3):225-245.
(2)Nakajima J,West M.“Bayesian Analysis of Latent Threshold Dynamic Models”,Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,2013(2):151-164.
(2)祝树金,段凡,李仁宇:《本国知识产权保护如何影响出口边际---基于技术创新和技术模仿的中介效应分析》,《湖南大学学报(社会科学版)》2018年第6期。
(3)张永凯:《企业技术创新模式演化分析:以苹果、三星和华为为例》,《广东财经大学学报》2018年第2期。
(1)方平:《新发展理念推进现代化经济体系建设》,《企业经济》2017年第12期。
(2)Nakajima J,West M.“Bayesian Analysis of Latent Threshold Dynamic Models”,Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,2013(2):151-164.
(1)Nakajima J,Kasuya M,Watanabe T.“Bayesian analysis of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model for the Japanese economy and monetary policy”,Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,2011(3):225-245.
(2)Nakajima J,West M.“Bayesian Analysis of Latent Threshold Dynamic Models”,Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,2013(2):151-164.