中国西部民族地区产业结构优化升级的城镇减贫效应研究
|
摘要
基于西部民族8省区2000—2015年数据,使用两阶段最小二乘法对产业结构优化升级的城镇减贫效应进行系统分析。研究发现:西部民族地区产业结构高度化的提升将显著降低城镇贫困发生强度,且在收入差距较大的地区,其减贫效应越大;产业结构合理化的推进有助于降低城镇贫困发生率和贫困深度,但本地收入分配状况的恶化将阻碍其效应发挥。从行业层面看,住宿和餐饮业的适度发展在推动产业结构高度化的同时将显著降低城镇贫困发生率;采矿业、水利、环境和公共设施管理业的城镇减贫效应在产业结构越不合理的地区较大;房地产业的城镇减贫效应则与本地产业结构合理化水平呈正比。最后,基于研究结论提出了针对性建议。
Based on the data of eight ethnic minority provinces and regions in western China from 2000 to 2015,a two-stage least squares method is used to systematically analyze the urban poverty reduction effect of optimizing and upgrading industrial structure. The study finds that the increase in the industrial structure supererogation in western ethnic minority areas will significantly reduce the intensity of urban poverty,and the poverty reduction effect becomes stronger in regions with larger income gaps; the development of the industrial structure rationalization will help to reduce the incidence rate and the depth of urban poverty,but the deterioration of local income distribution will hinder this effect. From the perspective of different industries,the moderate development of the accommodation and catering industry will significantly reduce the incidence of urban poverty while promoting the local industrial structure supererogation to a higher level; the urban poverty reduction effects of the mining industry,water conservancy,environment and public facility management industry are larger in the regions where their industrial structure is more unreasonable; the urban poverty reduction effect of real estate industry has positive correlations with the rationalization level of local industrial structure. Finally,specific recommendations were made based on the conclusions.
Based on the data of eight ethnic minority provinces and regions in western China from 2000 to 2015,a two-stage least squares method is used to systematically analyze the urban poverty reduction effect of optimizing and upgrading industrial structure. The study finds that the increase in the industrial structure supererogation in western ethnic minority areas will significantly reduce the intensity of urban poverty,and the poverty reduction effect becomes stronger in regions with larger income gaps; the development of the industrial structure rationalization will help to reduce the incidence rate and the depth of urban poverty,but the deterioration of local income distribution will hinder this effect. From the perspective of different industries,the moderate development of the accommodation and catering industry will significantly reduce the incidence of urban poverty while promoting the local industrial structure supererogation to a higher level; the urban poverty reduction effects of the mining industry,water conservancy,environment and public facility management industry are larger in the regions where their industrial structure is more unreasonable; the urban poverty reduction effect of real estate industry has positive correlations with the rationalization level of local industrial structure. Finally,specific recommendations were made based on the conclusions.
引文
[1]刘林,龚新蜀,李翠锦.西北地区城镇居民贫困程度的测度与实证分析[J].人口学刊,2011,(6):18-26.
[2]Montalvo J G,Ravallion M.The Pattern of Growth and Poverty Reduction in China[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2010,38(1):2-16.
[3]Ravallion M,Datt G.How Important to India's Poor Is the Sectoral Composition of Economic Growth?[J].World Bank Economic Review,1996,10(1):1-25.
[4]Warr P G,Wang W T.Poverty,Inequality and Economic Growth in Taiwan[C]//Ranis G,Hu S C(Eds).The Political Economy of Taiwan's Development into the 21st Century.London:Edward Elgar,1999.
[5]Ravallion M,Chen S H.China's(Uneven)Progress against Poverty[J].Journal of Development Economics,2005,82(1):1-42.
[6]章元,许庆.农业增长对降低农村贫困真的更重要吗?---对世界银行观点的反思[J].金融研究,2011,(6):109-122.
[7]张凤华,叶初升.经济增长、产业结构与农村减贫---基于省际面板数据的实证分析[J].当代财经,2011,(12):14-21.
[8]侯石安,谢玲.贵州农村贫困程度及其影响因素分析[J].贵州社会科学,2014,295(7):122-126.
[9]钟君.西南地区产业结构转型与农村减贫关系研究[J].统计与决策,2017,(8):101-103.
[10]单德朋,王英,郑长德.专业化、多样化与产业结构减贫效应的动态异质表现研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(7):157-168.
[11]兀晶.西部民族地区传统产业升级路径研究[J].贵州民族研究,2016,(7):158-161.
[12]Ravallion M,Chen S,Sangraula P.New Evidence on the Urbanization of Global Poverty[J].Population and Development Review,2007,33(4):667-701.
[13]UN-Habitat(UN Human Settlements Programme).The Global Urban Indicators Database[DB/OL].Nairobi:UN-Habitat,2014.
[14]Lucci P,Bhatkal T.Monitoring Progress on Urban Poverty:Are Indicators Fit for Purpose?[J/OL].Overseas Development Institute Working Paper,2014,(405).
[15]骆祚炎.我国城镇贫困人口规模再估算[J].财经科学,2006,(9):82-89.
[16]单德朋,郑长德.民族地区城镇贫困动态演化与经济增长益贫性研究[J].西北人口,2014,(1):79-91.
[17]Chamhuri N H,Karim H A,Hamdan H.Conceptual Framework of Urban Poverty Reduction:A Review of Literature[J].Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences,2012,68:804-814.
[18]Foster J,Greer J,Thorbecke E.A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures[J].Journal of Econometrics,1984,52(2):227-321.
[19]陈宗胜,于涛.中国城镇贫困线、贫困率及存在的问题[J].经济社会体制比较,2017,(6):40-53.
[20]戴魁早.中国工业结构的优化与升级:1985-2010[J].数理统计与管理,2014,33(2):296-304.
[21]干春晖,郑若谷,余典范.中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J].经济研究,2011,(5):4-16,31.
[22]陈万灵,杨永聪.全球进口需求结构变化与中国产业结构的调整[J].国际经贸探索,2014,30(9):13-23.
[23]赵佳佳,王建林.中国新一轮重工业化成因与影响---基于省级数据的经验证据[J].上海经济研究,2014,(2):41-50.
[24]李东坤,邓敏.中国省际OFDI、空间溢出与产业结构升级---基于空间面板杜宾模型的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2016,(1):121-133.
[25]杜凤莲,孙婧芳.经济增长、收入分配与减贫效应[J].经济科学,2009,(3):15-26.
[26]单德朋.教育效能和结构对西部地区贫困减缓的影响研究[J].中国人口科学,2012,(5):84-94.
[27]郑小三,李小克.产业结构、固定资产投资与城乡收入差距---基于中部地区省级面板数据的实证分析[J].经济与管理,2012,26(7):71-79.
(1)数据来源于2015年民族地区农村贫困情况,中国西部民族经济研究中心,http://www. cweer. cn/show-30-39-1. html,2016-05-13.
(1)根据郑小三和李小克(2012)[27]的研究,产业结构的优化升级往往会造成固定资产投资流向的同步变动,而反过来固定资产投资的流向变动也将反映产业结构优化升级的结果,因此本文使用各行业全社会固定资产投资额占地区固定资产投资总额的比重来衡量其相对重要程度。其中西部民族8省区历年的行业全社会固定资产投资额和固定资产投资总额数据均来自对应年份的地区统计年鉴。
(1)为了便于在回归结果表4中进行表示,本文将各行业与产业结构高度化和泰尔指数的交叉项统一表示为ln Ii×ln UR,其在模型(10)~(12)中代指ln Ii×ln IU,而在模型(13)~(15)中代指ln I i×ln IR。
[2]Montalvo J G,Ravallion M.The Pattern of Growth and Poverty Reduction in China[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2010,38(1):2-16.
[3]Ravallion M,Datt G.How Important to India's Poor Is the Sectoral Composition of Economic Growth?[J].World Bank Economic Review,1996,10(1):1-25.
[4]Warr P G,Wang W T.Poverty,Inequality and Economic Growth in Taiwan[C]//Ranis G,Hu S C(Eds).The Political Economy of Taiwan's Development into the 21st Century.London:Edward Elgar,1999.
[5]Ravallion M,Chen S H.China's(Uneven)Progress against Poverty[J].Journal of Development Economics,2005,82(1):1-42.
[6]章元,许庆.农业增长对降低农村贫困真的更重要吗?---对世界银行观点的反思[J].金融研究,2011,(6):109-122.
[7]张凤华,叶初升.经济增长、产业结构与农村减贫---基于省际面板数据的实证分析[J].当代财经,2011,(12):14-21.
[8]侯石安,谢玲.贵州农村贫困程度及其影响因素分析[J].贵州社会科学,2014,295(7):122-126.
[9]钟君.西南地区产业结构转型与农村减贫关系研究[J].统计与决策,2017,(8):101-103.
[10]单德朋,王英,郑长德.专业化、多样化与产业结构减贫效应的动态异质表现研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(7):157-168.
[11]兀晶.西部民族地区传统产业升级路径研究[J].贵州民族研究,2016,(7):158-161.
[12]Ravallion M,Chen S,Sangraula P.New Evidence on the Urbanization of Global Poverty[J].Population and Development Review,2007,33(4):667-701.
[13]UN-Habitat(UN Human Settlements Programme).The Global Urban Indicators Database[DB/OL].Nairobi:UN-Habitat,2014.
[14]Lucci P,Bhatkal T.Monitoring Progress on Urban Poverty:Are Indicators Fit for Purpose?[J/OL].Overseas Development Institute Working Paper,2014,(405).
[15]骆祚炎.我国城镇贫困人口规模再估算[J].财经科学,2006,(9):82-89.
[16]单德朋,郑长德.民族地区城镇贫困动态演化与经济增长益贫性研究[J].西北人口,2014,(1):79-91.
[17]Chamhuri N H,Karim H A,Hamdan H.Conceptual Framework of Urban Poverty Reduction:A Review of Literature[J].Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences,2012,68:804-814.
[18]Foster J,Greer J,Thorbecke E.A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures[J].Journal of Econometrics,1984,52(2):227-321.
[19]陈宗胜,于涛.中国城镇贫困线、贫困率及存在的问题[J].经济社会体制比较,2017,(6):40-53.
[20]戴魁早.中国工业结构的优化与升级:1985-2010[J].数理统计与管理,2014,33(2):296-304.
[21]干春晖,郑若谷,余典范.中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J].经济研究,2011,(5):4-16,31.
[22]陈万灵,杨永聪.全球进口需求结构变化与中国产业结构的调整[J].国际经贸探索,2014,30(9):13-23.
[23]赵佳佳,王建林.中国新一轮重工业化成因与影响---基于省级数据的经验证据[J].上海经济研究,2014,(2):41-50.
[24]李东坤,邓敏.中国省际OFDI、空间溢出与产业结构升级---基于空间面板杜宾模型的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2016,(1):121-133.
[25]杜凤莲,孙婧芳.经济增长、收入分配与减贫效应[J].经济科学,2009,(3):15-26.
[26]单德朋.教育效能和结构对西部地区贫困减缓的影响研究[J].中国人口科学,2012,(5):84-94.
[27]郑小三,李小克.产业结构、固定资产投资与城乡收入差距---基于中部地区省级面板数据的实证分析[J].经济与管理,2012,26(7):71-79.
(1)数据来源于2015年民族地区农村贫困情况,中国西部民族经济研究中心,http://www. cweer. cn/show-30-39-1. html,2016-05-13.
(1)根据郑小三和李小克(2012)[27]的研究,产业结构的优化升级往往会造成固定资产投资流向的同步变动,而反过来固定资产投资的流向变动也将反映产业结构优化升级的结果,因此本文使用各行业全社会固定资产投资额占地区固定资产投资总额的比重来衡量其相对重要程度。其中西部民族8省区历年的行业全社会固定资产投资额和固定资产投资总额数据均来自对应年份的地区统计年鉴。
(1)为了便于在回归结果表4中进行表示,本文将各行业与产业结构高度化和泰尔指数的交叉项统一表示为ln Ii×ln UR,其在模型(10)~(12)中代指ln Ii×ln IU,而在模型(13)~(15)中代指ln I i×ln IR。