“经济新常态”下的中国人口政策选择

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英文篇名：The Choice of China's Population Policy Under the “New Normal” 作者：穆光宗 英文作者：MU Guang-zong; 关键词：经济新常态 ; 超低生育率 ; 老龄化 ; 人口压迫生产力 ; 生育政策 ; 鼓励生育 ; 放开二孩政策 英文关键词：new normal of economy;;ultralow fertility rate;;ageing;;the population oppresses productivity;;birth policy;;birth encouragement;;relax the second child plicy 中文刊名：NJRQ 英文刊名：Population and Society 机构：北京大学人口研究所; 出版日期：2015-04-15 出版单位：人口与社会 年：2015 期：v.31;No.119 语种：中文; 页：NJRQ201502001 页数：7 CN：02 ISSN：32-1851/C 分类号：5-11

摘要

中国的人口经济关系已经发生重大变化。经济新常态同时伴随着"新矛盾""新问题"和"潜在风险",其中一个还没有引起足够关注的问题是来自人口方面的变化,包括劳动力短缺和老化、持续低生育率和快速老龄化。人力短缺问题已经逐渐上升为主导性的新人口问题。如果说"生产力压迫人口"的问题已经解决,那么"人口压迫生产力"的问题将日渐突出。中国目前面临的是"低生育率人口问题",低生育率趋势不仅将长期化,而且将内卷化,卷入"低生育—老龄化"的恶性循环之中。提出全面鼓励二孩应该成为紧迫的国家选择。
        Great changes have taken place in the relationship between China's population and economy. the new normal of economy is accompanied by new contradictions, new problems, potential risks, and one problem which has not caused enough attention—— the change of the population, including labor shortages and aging, continued lower fertility and rapid ageing. The manpower shortage has escalated into a dominant and new population problem. If we say that the problem of productivity oppressing population has been resolved, the problem of  population pressing productivity will become more and more serious. What China is facing now is low fertility trend, which will not only be permanent, but also go into a vicious cycle of low birth rate- aging. So, the paper puts forward here that it is an urgent choice for the state to encourage comprehensively 2 children program.

引文

[1]侯佳伟,黄四林,辛自强,等.中国人口生育意愿变迁:1980—2011[J].中国社会科学,2014(4):78-97.