人口老龄化与社会养老保险:理论与宏观经济计量证据
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摘要
随着人口出生率下降和预期寿命延长,人口老龄化日益加剧。分析了总和生育率、老年抚养比、新生儿预期寿命、60岁老年人预期寿命、退休年龄、养老金净替代率、储蓄率等人口和宏观经济因素对我国社会养老保险支出影响的方向和力度,就上述人口与宏观经济因素对社会养老保险支出水平影响的力度加以检验。研究表明,总和生育率下降、老年抚养比提高和新生儿与老年人预期寿命延长将增加社会养老保险支出压力,而延长退休年龄和提高储蓄率可减轻社会养老保险支出压力。
With declining birth rates and longer life expectancy,the aging population increasing,this paper analyzes the retirement age,net pension replacement rate,savings rate,the total fertility rate,elderly dependency ratio,the newborn life expectancy and life expectancy of the elderly population's impact on China's Social endowment insurance direction and strength,and make a empirical test.Research shows that the total fertility rate drop,elderly dependency ratio increase and extended life expectancy of newborns and the elderly will increase spending on Social endowment insurance pressure,while raising the retirement age and higher savings rate can reduce the pressure of social endowment insurance.
With declining birth rates and longer life expectancy,the aging population increasing,this paper analyzes the retirement age,net pension replacement rate,savings rate,the total fertility rate,elderly dependency ratio,the newborn life expectancy and life expectancy of the elderly population's impact on China's Social endowment insurance direction and strength,and make a empirical test.Research shows that the total fertility rate drop,elderly dependency ratio increase and extended life expectancy of newborns and the elderly will increase spending on Social endowment insurance pressure,while raising the retirement age and higher savings rate can reduce the pressure of social endowment insurance.
引文
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Bongaarts,J.Population Aging and the Rising Cost of Public Pensions[J]. Population and Development Review,2004,30(1):1-23.
Coile,C.,Jonathan G.Future Social Security Entitlements and the Retirement Decision[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2007,89(2):234-246.
Dutta,J,Sandeep K,&Michael J.O.A Portfolio Approach to the Optimal Funding of Pensions[J].Economics Letters,2000,69(2):201-206.
Feldstein,M S.,Elena R.Individual Risk in Investment-Based Social Security System[J].American Economic Review,2001,91(4):1116-1125.
Meier,V,Matthias W.Pensions,Fertility and Education[J].Journal of Pension Economics and Finance,2010,9(1):75-93.
昌忠泽.人口老龄化的经济影响——对文献的研究和反思[J].财贸研究,2018,(2):11-22.
陈彦斌,郭豫媚,姚一旻.人口老龄化对中国高储蓄的影响[J].金融研究,2014,(1):71-84.
李超,罗润东.老龄化、预防动机与家庭储蓄率——对中国第二次人口红利的实证研究[J].人口与经济,2018,(2):104-113.
刘永平,陆铭.从家庭养老角度看老龄化的中国经济能否持续增长[J].世界经济,2008 ,(1):65-77.
童玉芬,李玉梅,刘传奇.我国城镇化进程中的城乡人口老龄化趋势及政策启示[J].人口与经济,2014,(6):36-44.
汪伟.人口老龄化、生育政策调整与中国经济增长[J].经济学季刊,2016,(1):67-95
王云多.老龄化背景下人口与宏观经济因素对公共养老金支出的影响[J].江南大学学报(人文社会科学版),2018,(3):93-100.
王云多.人口老龄化对公共养老金制度的影响[J].内蒙古社会科学(汉文版),2017,(5):166-172.
王金营,付秀彬.考虑人口年龄结构变动的中国消费函数计量分析———兼论中国人口老龄化对消费的影响[J].人口研究,2006 ,(1):29-36.
赵昕东,王昊,刘婷.人口老龄化、养老保险与居民储蓄率[J].中国软科学,2017,(8):156-165.