两种背景场同化雷达资料对辽宁省一次暴雨预报的影响
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摘要
针对2013年8月15—16日先后在辽宁省锦州和抚顺地区发生的特大暴雨,分别以T639和NCEP预报场作为背景场,利用中尺度数值模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)和ADAS(ARPS Data Analysis System)同化系统进行了同化多普勒雷达观测资料的试验,检验同化雷达资料和采用不同背景场对暴雨预报的影响。结果表明:(1)同化雷达资料前,使用两种背景场的预报结果对锦州的强降水均出现漏报,同化雷达资料后,均预报出了锦州黑山一带的强降水,而12~24 h预报结果中对位于抚顺地区强降水预报的改善不大,采用T639较NCEP预报作为背景场对抚顺地区强降水的预报更好;(2)ADAS同化雷达资料后对模式初始湿度场的改善较大,700 h Pa和850 h Pa比湿有明显的增量。同时,同化雷达资料后更新了模式初始场中的水物质,水物质增量位置和强降水发生位置有较好的对应关系;(3)通过分析模式预报的风场,回波和水汽通量散度发现,同化试验预报初期在锦州和阜新一带预报出了强度较强且深厚的水汽场,低层西南暖湿气流和高层西北干冷气流的配置在锦州地区水汽区域的左侧激发了强烈的上升辐合运动,而其右侧伴有强烈的辐散是导致锦州黑山强降水爆发的主要原因。
To understand the improvements of two types of background filed used to weather forecasting assimilate radar observation,WRF model and ADAS are used to forecast the rainstorm that occurred at Jinzhou and Fushun of Liaoning during 15-17 August 2013,and two types of background filed include T639 and NCEP. The Result shows:(1)WRF fails to forecast the rainstorm in Jinzhou area. After assimilating radar observation with ADAS,it has been great improved in forecasting the rainstorm at the area of Jinzhou with both background fields. There is little improvement of forecast rainfall at Fushun after assimilation within 12~24 hours,and the performance of T639 is better than NCEP as background fields.(2)The initial filed of specific humidity is improved greatly after assimilating radar observation,and distinctly at 700 and 850 h Pa. Meanwhile,the water substances in initial field are updated by assimilation,and the position have good correspondence with the area of rainstorm.(3)A strong and deep moist area is forecasted at the rainfall region in both assimilation tests. A system of strong warm wet wind jet stream from southwest at lowlevel and cold dry at high level cooperation with the high moist region is the main reason leads to the occurrence of prolonged heavy precipitation ultimately,and a wind convergence in front of the moist region and a strong sinking inflowin the back of the rainfall region also forecasted with two background fields.
To understand the improvements of two types of background filed used to weather forecasting assimilate radar observation,WRF model and ADAS are used to forecast the rainstorm that occurred at Jinzhou and Fushun of Liaoning during 15-17 August 2013,and two types of background filed include T639 and NCEP. The Result shows:(1)WRF fails to forecast the rainstorm in Jinzhou area. After assimilating radar observation with ADAS,it has been great improved in forecasting the rainstorm at the area of Jinzhou with both background fields. There is little improvement of forecast rainfall at Fushun after assimilation within 12~24 hours,and the performance of T639 is better than NCEP as background fields.(2)The initial filed of specific humidity is improved greatly after assimilating radar observation,and distinctly at 700 and 850 h Pa. Meanwhile,the water substances in initial field are updated by assimilation,and the position have good correspondence with the area of rainstorm.(3)A strong and deep moist area is forecasted at the rainfall region in both assimilation tests. A system of strong warm wet wind jet stream from southwest at lowlevel and cold dry at high level cooperation with the high moist region is the main reason leads to the occurrence of prolonged heavy precipitation ultimately,and a wind convergence in front of the moist region and a strong sinking inflowin the back of the rainfall region also forecasted with two background fields.
引文
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[25]朱定真,沈树勤,李昕.华东地区大范围热带气旋大暴雨的综合分析[J].气象科学,1997,17(3):298-306.
[26]杨小银,宋广宁,付培健.“5·10”岷县暴雨灾害天气过程的数值模拟和诊断分析[J].高原气象,2013,32(3):798-805,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00031.
[2]何邓新,邵爱梅.判断大气要素场相似度的相似面积比方法[J].高原气象,2014,33(3):658-665,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00103.
[3]潘留杰,张宏芳,王楠,等.陕西一次强对流天气过程的中尺度及雷达观测分析[J].高原气象,2013,32(1):278-289,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00027.
[4]王丹,王改利,刘黎平,等.基于雷达回波外推和中尺度模式预报的短时降水对比分析[J].高原气象,2014,33(3):811-822,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00038.
[5]王遂缠,胡向军,张新荣,等.雷达资料同化在甘肃局地暴雨天气个例中的应用[J].高原气象,2011,30(3):711-718.
[6]段云霞,李得勤.台风“碧利斯”的雷达反演与改进[J].气象与环境学报,2012,28(5):25-33.
[7]段云霞,邵爱梅,杨毅.利用双多普勒雷达资料对一次台风流场结构的分析[J].高原气象,2010,29(1):187-196.
[8]王改利,刘黎平,邱崇践,等.多普勒激光雷达风场反演方法研究[J].大气科学,2010,34(1):143-153.
[9]杨毅,邱崇践,龚建东,等.三维变分和物理初始化方法相结合同化多普勒雷达资料的试验研究[J].气象学报,2008,66(4):479-488.
[10]Li Y,Wang X,Xue M.Assimilation of radar radial velocity data with the WRF ensemble-3DVAR hybrid system for the prediction of hurricane Ike(2008)[J].Mon Wea Rev,2012,140(11):3507-3524.
[11]徐道生,邵爱梅,邱崇践.SVD-En3DVar方法同化多普勒雷达速度观测资料Ⅰ:模拟资料试验[J].大气科学,2011,35(4):753-766.
[12]徐道生,邵爱梅,邱崇践.SVD-En3DVar方法同化多普勒雷达速度观测资料Ⅱ:实际资料试验[J].大气科学,2011,35(5):818-832.
[13]Carpenter R L,Bassett J G M,Brewster K A,et al.A globally relocatable numerical weather prediction system based on WRF and ADAS[C].Extended abstracts,20thConference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and 16thConf.on Numerical Weather Prediction,Amer Meteor Soc,Seattle,Wash,2004.
[14]Weygandt S S,Shapiro A,Droegemeier K K.Retrieval of initial forecast fields from single-Doppler observations of a supercell thunderstorm.Part I:Single-Doppler velocity retrieva[lJ].Mon Wea Rev,2002,130(3):433-453.
[15]Weygandt S S,Shapiro A,Droegemeier K K.Retrieval of initial forecast fields from single-Doppler observations of a supercell thunderstorm.Part II:Thermodynamic retrieval and numerical prediction[J].Mon Wea Rev,2002,130(3):454-476.
[16]盛春岩,浦一芬,高守亭.多普勒天气雷达资料同化对暴雨模拟的影响[J].大气科学,2006,30(1):93-104.
[17]盛春岩,薛德强,雷霆,等.雷达资料同化与提高模式水平分辨率对短时预报影响的数值对比试验[J].气象学报,2006,64(3):293-307.
[18]王叶红,赖安伟,赵玉春.降水资料同化在梅雨锋特大暴雨个例模拟中的应用研究[J].气象学报,2012,70(3):402-417.
[19]徐广阔,孙建华,雷霆,等.多普勒天气雷达资料同化对暴雨模拟的影响[J].应用气象学报,2009,20(1):36-46.
[20]Xue M,Wang D,Gao J,et al.The Advanced Regional Prediction System(ARPS),storm-scale numerical weather prediction and data assimilation[J].Meteor Atmos Phys,2003,82(1):139-170.
[21]Xue M,Droegemeier K K,Wong V.The Advanced Regional Prediction System(ARPS)-A multi-scale nonhydrostatic atmospheric simulation and prediction model.Part I:Model dynamics and verication[J].Meteor Atmos Phys,2000,75(3-4):161-193.
[22]Hu M,Xue M.3DVAR and cloud analysis with WSR-88D level-data for the prediction of the Fort Worth Tornadic thunderstorms.Part II:Impact of radial velocity analysis via 3DVAR[J].Mon Wea Rev,2005,134:675-698.
[23]Srivastava K,Roy B S K,Sen R S,et al.Simulation of high impact convective events over Indian region by ARPS model with assimilation of Doppler weather radar radial velocity and reflectivity[J].Atmosfera,2010,23(1):53-73.
[24]Dawson D T,Xue M.Numerical Forecasts of the 15-16 June2002 Southern Plains Mesoscale Convective System:Impact of Mesoscale Data and Cloud Analysis[J].Mon Wea Rev,2006,134(6):1607-1629.
[25]朱定真,沈树勤,李昕.华东地区大范围热带气旋大暴雨的综合分析[J].气象科学,1997,17(3):298-306.
[26]杨小银,宋广宁,付培健.“5·10”岷县暴雨灾害天气过程的数值模拟和诊断分析[J].高原气象,2013,32(3):798-805,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00031.