负期望条件下的末期效应:情绪动机诱发风险寻求
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摘要
风险决策中,末期效应指"个体在重复多轮决策任务的末尾冒险倾向升高"的现象,但其内在机制尚不明确。三个研究的结果发现,在实验室环境和自然环境下,不同期望(负期望值和等期望值)条件下被试在最后一轮的投资均会显著增加,末期效应稳定出现,且不受到最后一轮决策前被试所拥有的代币数量的影响。即,就算在风险选项收益更小的情况下,被试也会倾向于在最后一轮选择高风险选项,且这一效应是参照点独立的,这说明末期效应的出现是源于对情绪满足感的追求。未来研究可从这一点切入,进一步研究情绪影响风险决策过程的机制。
The ending effect of risky decision-making refers to the phenomenon that individuals would be more likely to take risks when a multiple-played decision-making task comes to an end. Three experiments examined the ending effect with risky decision tasks of different expected values, both in laboratory settings and in natural environment. The results showed that, the ending effect appeared in both laboratories and natural settings. Participants showed increased risk taking in the last round in both equal-expected value gambles and negative-expected value gambles. In addition, the ending effect is not moderated by the amount of tokens participants had before the last round. It appears that the ending effect is driven by the motivational need for an emotionally rewarding ending and suggests that the ending effect is reference independent. Future research on the underlying mechanism of the ending effect may benefit by focusing on affective system since it plays an important role in the ending effect.
The ending effect of risky decision-making refers to the phenomenon that individuals would be more likely to take risks when a multiple-played decision-making task comes to an end. Three experiments examined the ending effect with risky decision tasks of different expected values, both in laboratory settings and in natural environment. The results showed that, the ending effect appeared in both laboratories and natural settings. Participants showed increased risk taking in the last round in both equal-expected value gambles and negative-expected value gambles. In addition, the ending effect is not moderated by the amount of tokens participants had before the last round. It appears that the ending effect is driven by the motivational need for an emotionally rewarding ending and suggests that the ending effect is reference independent. Future research on the underlying mechanism of the ending effect may benefit by focusing on affective system since it plays an important role in the ending effect.
引文
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Mckenzie,C.R.M.,Sher,S.,Müller-Trede,J.,Lin,C.,Liersch,M.J.,&Rawstron,A.G.(2016).Are longshots only for losers?A new look at the last race effect.Journal of Behavioral Decision Making,29(1),25-36.
Metzger,M.A.(1985).Biases in betting:An application of laboratory findings.Psychological Reports,56(3),883-888.doi:10.2466/pr0.1985.56.3.883
Scholer,A.A.,Zou,X.,Fujita,K.,Stroessner,S.J.,&Higgins,E.T.(2010).When risk seeking becomes a motivational necessity.Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,99(2),215-231.
Shiv,B.,Loewenstein,G.,Bechara,A.,Damasio,H.,&Damasio,A.R.(2005).Investment behavior and the negative side of emotion.Psychological Science,16(6),435-439.
Thaler,R.H.,&Johnson,E.J.(1990).Gambling with the house money and trying to break even:The effects of prior outcomes on risky choice.Management Science,36(6),643-660.
Thaler,R.H.,&Ziemba,W.T.(1988).Anomalies:Parimutuel betting markets:Racetracks and lotteries.Journal of Economic Perspectives,2(2),161-174.
Wood,S.M.W.,&Bechara,A.(2014).The neuroscience of dual(and triple)systems in decision making The neuroscience of risky decision making.(pp.177-202).Washington,DC,US:American Psychological Association.
Xing,C.,Meng,Y.,Isaacowitz,D.M.,Wen,Y.,Lin,Z.(2018).The ending effect in investment decisions:The motivational need for an emotionally rewarding ending.Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin.doi:10.1177/0146167218788829
郑利平.(2000).59岁现象的经济学分析.中共中央党校学报,4(4),81-85.doi:10.14119/j.cnki.zgxb.2000.04.011
Ali,M.M.(1977).Probability and utility estimates for racetrack bettors.Journal of Political Economy,85(4),803-815.doi:10.1086/260600
Asch,P.,Malkiel,B.G.,&Quandt,R.E.(1982).Racetrack betting and informed behavior.Journal of Financial Economics,10(2),187-194.doi:10.1016/0304-405X(82)90012-5
Brand,M.,Labudda,K.,&Markowitsch,H.J.(2006).Neuropsychological correlates of decision-making in ambiguous and risky situations.Neural Networks,19(8),1266-1276.
Carstensen,L.L.(2006).The influence of a sense of time on human development.Science,312(5782),1913-1915.
Carstensen,L.L.,Isaacowitz,D.M.,&Charles,S.T.(1999).Taking time seriously:A theory of socioemotional selectivity.American Psychologist,54(3),165-181.
Faul,F.,Erdfelder,E.,Buchner,A.,&Lang,A.G.(2009).Statistical power analyses using G*Power 3.1:Tests for correlation and regression analyses.Behavior Research Methods,41(4),1149-1160.doi:10.3758/BRM.41.4.1149
Faul,F.,Erdfelder,E.,Lang,A.G.,&Buchner,A.(2007).G*Power 3:A flexible statistical power analysis program for the social,behavioral,and biomedical sciences.Behavior Research Methods,39(2),175-191.doi:10.3758/BF03193146
Hertwig,R.,Barron,G.,Weber,E.U.,&Erev,I.(2004).Decisions from experience and the effect of rare events in risky choice.Psychological Science,15(8),534-539.
Hogarth,R.M.,&Reder,M.W.(1986).Editors'comments:Perspectives from economics and psychology.The Journal of Business,59(4),S185-S207.
Kelley,N.J.,Eastwick,P.W.,Harmon-Jones,E.,&Schmeichel,B.J.(2015).Jealousy increased by induced relative left frontal cortical activity.Emotion,15(5),550-555.doi:10.1037/emo0000068
Knight,F.H.(1921).Risk,uncertainty and profit.Social Science Electronic Publishing,(4),682-690.
Kopelman,R.E.,&Minkin,B.L.(1991).Toward a psychology of parimutuel behavior:Test of Gluck's Laws.Psychological Reports,68(2),701-702.
Mcglothlin,W.H.(1956).Stability of choices among uncertain alternatives.American Journal of Psychology,69(4),604-615.
Mckenzie,C.R.M.,Sher,S.,Müller-Trede,J.,Lin,C.,Liersch,M.J.,&Rawstron,A.G.(2016).Are longshots only for losers?A new look at the last race effect.Journal of Behavioral Decision Making,29(1),25-36.
Metzger,M.A.(1985).Biases in betting:An application of laboratory findings.Psychological Reports,56(3),883-888.doi:10.2466/pr0.1985.56.3.883
Scholer,A.A.,Zou,X.,Fujita,K.,Stroessner,S.J.,&Higgins,E.T.(2010).When risk seeking becomes a motivational necessity.Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,99(2),215-231.
Shiv,B.,Loewenstein,G.,Bechara,A.,Damasio,H.,&Damasio,A.R.(2005).Investment behavior and the negative side of emotion.Psychological Science,16(6),435-439.
Thaler,R.H.,&Johnson,E.J.(1990).Gambling with the house money and trying to break even:The effects of prior outcomes on risky choice.Management Science,36(6),643-660.
Thaler,R.H.,&Ziemba,W.T.(1988).Anomalies:Parimutuel betting markets:Racetracks and lotteries.Journal of Economic Perspectives,2(2),161-174.
Wood,S.M.W.,&Bechara,A.(2014).The neuroscience of dual(and triple)systems in decision making The neuroscience of risky decision making.(pp.177-202).Washington,DC,US:American Psychological Association.
Xing,C.,Meng,Y.,Isaacowitz,D.M.,Wen,Y.,Lin,Z.(2018).The ending effect in investment decisions:The motivational need for an emotionally rewarding ending.Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin.doi:10.1177/0146167218788829