新结构经济学:将“耐心资本”作为一种比较优势
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摘要
世界经济需要一种增长提升策略,基础设施融资似乎是其中的解决之道。本文根据新结构经济学(Lin,2010,2012)对长期导向(Long Term Orientation)和短期导向的资本异质性展开讨论。传统的新自由主义认为资本具有同质性,因此不会发生货币和期限不匹配的问题,完全的资本账户自由化"非常有益"。然而,以往的研究却在许多亚洲经济体的文化中发现了长期导向的证据。在本篇探索性文章中,我们认为可将长期导向视为一种特殊的禀赋,在某些情况下可变成"耐心资本"的比较优势。如果这些国家能将"耐心资本"方面的潜在比较优势转化为显性比较优势,培养以有意义的方式"打包"盈利和非盈利项目的能力,那么它们在基础设施融资中便能获得显性竞争优势。"打包"公共基础设施和私人服务的能力,是海外合作获得成功的关键体制因素之一。
The world economy needs a growth-lifting strategy,and infrastructure financing seems to hold the key.Based on the New Structural Economics(Lin 2010,2012)we discuss the heterogeneity of capital focusing on the long term versus short term orientation(STO).Traditional neoliberalism assumes that capital is homogenous,therefore,there is no issue of currency and term mismatch and thus complete capital account liberalization is"beneficial".However,previous studies have found evidence of long term orientation(LTO)in the culture of many Asian economies(Hofstede 1991).In this exploratory paper,we suggest that the LTO can be considered a special endowment which,under certain circumstances,can be developed into a comparative advantage(CA)in patient capital.If these countries can turn their latent CA into a revealed CA in patient capital,and develop the ability to "package"profitable and non-profitable projects in meaningful ways,they would have a"revealed"CA in infrastructure financing.The ability to"package"public infrastructure and private services is one of the key institutional factors for the success in overseas cooperation.
The world economy needs a growth-lifting strategy,and infrastructure financing seems to hold the key.Based on the New Structural Economics(Lin 2010,2012)we discuss the heterogeneity of capital focusing on the long term versus short term orientation(STO).Traditional neoliberalism assumes that capital is homogenous,therefore,there is no issue of currency and term mismatch and thus complete capital account liberalization is"beneficial".However,previous studies have found evidence of long term orientation(LTO)in the culture of many Asian economies(Hofstede 1991).In this exploratory paper,we suggest that the LTO can be considered a special endowment which,under certain circumstances,can be developed into a comparative advantage(CA)in patient capital.If these countries can turn their latent CA into a revealed CA in patient capital,and develop the ability to "package"profitable and non-profitable projects in meaningful ways,they would have a"revealed"CA in infrastructure financing.The ability to"package"public infrastructure and private services is one of the key institutional factors for the success in overseas cooperation.
引文
[1]Aschauer,David A.Back of the G-7Pack:Public Investment and Productivity Growth in the Group of Seven[R].Working Paper Series,Macroeconomic Issues 89-13,Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago,1989.
[2]Bai,Chong-En.The Return to Capital in China[R].NBER Working Paper No.12755,2006.
[3]Broner,Fernando,Ventura,Jaume.Rethinking the Effects of Financial Globalization[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2016.
[4]Calderón,César.Infrastructure and Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa[J].Journal of African Economies,19(suppl.1):i13-i87-,Infrastructure in Latin America,In Handbook of Latin American Economics,J.Ocampo,Oxford University Press,London.
[5]Calderón,César.Is Infrastructure Capital Productive?A Dynamic Heterogeneous Approach[R].World Bank Policy Working Papers 5682,2011.
[6]Canning,David.The Social Rate of Return on Infrastructure Investments[R].World Bank Working Papers WPS 2390,2000.
[7]Chandra,Vandana,Justin Yifu Lin,and Yan Wang.Leading Dragons Phenomenon:New Opportunities for Catch-Up in Low-Income Countries[R].WB Policy Research working paper 6000,2012.
[8]Chen,Chuan.South-South Cooperation in Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa[R].Working Paper for ECOSOC,2013.
[9]Dollar,David.China as a Global Investor[OL].https://www.brookings.edu/.../China-as-a-Global-Investor.
[10]Estache,Antonio.Infrastructure Finance in Developing Countries:An Overview[R].EIB publication,2011.
[11]Foster,Vivien,et al.Africa's Infrastructure:A Time for Transformation[R].The World Bank,Washington DC,2010.
[12]Galor,Oded,andmerzak.The Agricultural Origins of Time Preference[J].American Economics Review,2016.
[13]Gou,Qin,Yiping Huang,and Jianguo Xu.Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Growth Revisited:Different Effects of Inflow and Outflow Liberalization[R].Working Paper National School of Development,Peking University.
[14]Halland,Havard,John Beardsworth,Bryan Land,and James Schmidt.Resource Financed Infrastructure:A Discussion on a New Form of Infrastructure Financing[R].The World Bank,Washington DC,2014.
[15]Hofstede,Geert.Cultures and Organizations:Software of the Mind[M].McGraw-Hill,London,1991.
[16]Hofstede,Geert,Gert Jan Hofstede,Michael Minkov,Cultures and Organizations:Software of the Mind[M].Revised and Expanded 3rd Edition.New York:McGraw-Hill USA,2010.
[17]IMF,World Economic Outlook[R].Chapter 3on Infrastructure,Washington DC,2014.
[18]Ju,Jiandong,Justin Yifu Lin,and Yong Wang.Endowment Structures,Industrial Dynamics,and Economic Growth[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,76(November 2015):244-263.doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2015.09.006.
[19]Kapur,Basant.Global Financial Imbalances and Endogenous Growth in a North-South Setting[R].Working Paper,National University of Singapore,2016.
[20]Kose,Ayhan,Eswar Prasad,Kenneth Rogoff,and Shang-Jin Wei.Financial Globalization:A Reappraisal[R].IMFStaff Papers,Volume 56,No.1.Washington DC,2009.
[21]Kukharskyy,Bohdan.Relational Contracts and Global Sourcing[J].Journal of International Economics,2016.
[22]Lin,Justin Yifu.Beyond Keynesianism:The Necessity of a Globally Coordinated Solution[J].Harvard International Review,31(2):14-17.
[23]---.New Structural Economics:A Framework for Rethinking Development[R].Policy Research Working Paper5197,World Bank,Washington,DC,2010.
[24]---.New Structural Economics:A Framework for Rethinking Development[J].World Bank Research Observer,2011a,26(2):193-221.
[25]---.Global Crisis Requires Global Solutions[Z].Speech prepared for the Council on Foreign Relations,New York(February 28),2011b.
[26]---.A Pro-Growth Response to the Crisis[J].Intereconomics:Review of European Economic Policy,2011c,46(6):321-326.
[27]---.Growth Identification and Facilitation:The Role of the State in the Dynamics of Structural Change[J].Development Policy Review,2011d,29(3):264-290.
[28]---.The Quest for Prosperity:How Developing Economies Can Take Off[M].Princeton,NJ:Princeton University Press,2012.
[29]---.New Structural Economics:A Framework for Rethinking Development and Policy[R].Washington DC,World Bank,2012b.
[30]---.Building Infrastructure for a Brighter Future:How Infrastructure Investment Initiative can Generate Growth and Create Jobs in the Developed World[Z].Article for Foreign Policy,2012c.
[31]---.Against the Consensus:Reflections on the Great Recession[M].Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[32]---.The Washington Consensus Revisited:A New Structural Economics Perspective[J].Journal of Economic Policy Reform,2015a,18(2):96-113,DOI:10.1080/17487870.2014.936439.
[33]---.Why I Do Not Support Complete Capital Account Liberalization[J].China Economic Journal,2015b,8(1):86-93,DOI:10.1080/17538963.2015.1002178.
[34]Lin,Justin Yifu and Kevin Lu.Infrastructure's Class of Its Own[Z].Project Syndicate(https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/justin-yifu-lin-and-kevin-lu-argue-that-to-attract-private-investment-infrastructure-must-be-redefined-as-a-new-asset-class?barrier=accessreg),2014.
[35]Lin,Justin Yifu and Yan Wang.Beyond the Marshall Plan:The Global Structural Transformation Fund(GSTF)[D].A paper for the UN's Post-2015development agenda.Published in May 2013.Available online.
[36]Lin,Justin Yifu and Yan Wang.“Comments”in Halland,Havard,John Beardsworth,Bryan Land,and James Schmidt.Resource Financed Infrastructure:A Discussion on a New Form of Infrastructure Financing[R].The World Bank,Washington DC,2014.
[37]Lin,Justin Yifu and Yan Wang.Going Beyond Aid:Development Cooperation for Structural Transformation.Cambridge University Press,2017.
[38]Lin,Justin Yifu,Kevin Lu,and CledanMandri-Perrott.New Equities for Infrastructure Investment[Z].Project Syndicate(https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/infrastructure-investment-asset-class-by-justin-yifu-lin-et-al-2015-03?barrier=accessreg),2015.
[39]Lu,Kevin and Justin Yifu Lin.To Finance the World's Infrastructure,We Need a New Asset Class[Z].The World Post,A Partnership of the Hufftong Post and Berggruen Institute(http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kevin-lu/worldbank-global-infrastructure-facility_b_4078840.html),2013.
[40]Mendoza,Enrique G.;Quadrini,Vincenzo;Rios-Rull,Jose-Victor.Financial Integration,Financial Development,and Global Imbalances[J].Journal of Political Economy,2009.
[41]OECD.Infrastructure Financing Instruments and Incentives[R].The project is under Secretary General of the OECD.Paris,2015.
[42]Peterson,George E.Unlocking Land Values to Finance Urban Infrastructure:Land-based Financing Options for Cities[Z].Trends and Policy Options Series,Washington DC,2008.
[43]Spence,Michael.The Growth Report:Principal Findings and Recommendations[Z].2008.
[44]Stiglitz,Joseph E.A Nobel Laureate Explains How Trump Could Nuke the Economy[Z].Vanity Fair,December27,2016.
[45]TANG,Xiaoyang.China-Africa Economic Diplomacy and Its Implication to Global Value Chain[Z].(In Chinese),World Knowledge Publishers Beijing,September 2014,pp.81-88.
[46]Wang,Yan.Infrastructure:The Foundation for Growth and Poverty Reduction:A Synthesis[Z].Chapter III in Volume II,Economic Transformation and Poverty Reduction:How it Happened in China,Helping it Happen in Africa,China-OECD/DAC Study Group.
[47]World Bank.Global Economic Prospects:Uncertainties and Vulnerabilities[R].The World Bank,Washington,DC.
[48]---Chinese FDI in Ethiopia[Z].A World Bank Survey,2012.
[49]---Supporting Infrastructure Development in Low-Income Countries[R].The World Bank,Washington,DC.
[50]Zeng,Douglas Zhihua.An Assessment of Six Economic Zones in Nigeria,in Farole,Thomas,Special Economic Zones in Africa:Comparing Performance and Learning from Global Experience[R].The World Bank,Washington DC,2010.
(1)“显而易见的是,以更加传统的经济学为基础提出的一些建议不再有效。政策制定者不能依赖于像‘保持财政平衡制约’、‘利用货币政策控制通货膨胀’和‘保持宏观经济稳定’一样的简单的政策指导,然后等着市场自行完成接下来的调整。想当然地认为用这种方法促进的增长能够潜移默化地改善贫困人口的生活,这是一种站不住脚的假设。确实,我们现在的困境部分是由于太遵循那些过时的建议而造成的。”见Towards a Consensus on the Principles of Policymaking for the Contemporary World,http://www.sida.se/globalassets/sida/eng/press/stockholm-statement.pdf,2016-11-15。
(1)See Lin(2009b).
(2)参见Lin(2011c)、Lin和Doemerland(2012)、Lin(2013),以及Lin和Wang(2013)(http://www.post2015hlp.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Lin-Wang_Beyond-the-Marshall-Plan-A-Global-Structural-Transformation-Fund.pdf)。
(3)See Lin and Wang,Going Beyond Aid:Development Cooperation for Structural Transformation,Cambridge University Press,2017.
(4)See www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/pdf/c3.pdf
(1)例如,Aschauer(1989)发现,公共基础设施资本存量是决定美国全要素生产率总值的重要因素。他预测基础设施资本的边际产出每年高达100%。Canning和Bennathan(2000)指出:“在数量有限的一些国家,我们发现了表明电力产能和平整路面产能急剧短缺的证据,大量超额资本又回到了基础设施投资中。”
(1)关于合法、典型的土地资产基础设施融资,见Peterson和George(2008)。
(1)五大文化维度是个人主义、男性气质、不确定性的规避、长期导向性和权利距离(Hofstede,1991)。
(2)中国价值调查是Michael Bond与其中国同事于1971年开展的调查。其中第四个维度与儒家学说中的恒心(毅力)高度相关,即节俭、遵守身份决定的关系及次序、拥有羞耻感、稳重(Hofstede等,2010)。
(1)“对冲基金的关键点不是长期性,对对冲基金来说,一个季度几乎就是永恒了。它们的目标是在华盛顿觉醒之前,把钱快速充入政府慷慨的订单”,Joseph E.Stiglitz(Vanity Fair,2016年12月27日)。
(2)这个概念符合Justin Lin和Kevin Lu的博客中所说的“购买并持有”的资本(Lu和Lin,2013;Lin和Lu,2014;Lin、Lu和Mandri-Perrott,2015)。
[2]Bai,Chong-En.The Return to Capital in China[R].NBER Working Paper No.12755,2006.
[3]Broner,Fernando,Ventura,Jaume.Rethinking the Effects of Financial Globalization[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2016.
[4]Calderón,César.Infrastructure and Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa[J].Journal of African Economies,19(suppl.1):i13-i87-,Infrastructure in Latin America,In Handbook of Latin American Economics,J.Ocampo,Oxford University Press,London.
[5]Calderón,César.Is Infrastructure Capital Productive?A Dynamic Heterogeneous Approach[R].World Bank Policy Working Papers 5682,2011.
[6]Canning,David.The Social Rate of Return on Infrastructure Investments[R].World Bank Working Papers WPS 2390,2000.
[7]Chandra,Vandana,Justin Yifu Lin,and Yan Wang.Leading Dragons Phenomenon:New Opportunities for Catch-Up in Low-Income Countries[R].WB Policy Research working paper 6000,2012.
[8]Chen,Chuan.South-South Cooperation in Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa[R].Working Paper for ECOSOC,2013.
[9]Dollar,David.China as a Global Investor[OL].https://www.brookings.edu/.../China-as-a-Global-Investor.
[10]Estache,Antonio.Infrastructure Finance in Developing Countries:An Overview[R].EIB publication,2011.
[11]Foster,Vivien,et al.Africa's Infrastructure:A Time for Transformation[R].The World Bank,Washington DC,2010.
[12]Galor,Oded,andmerzak.The Agricultural Origins of Time Preference[J].American Economics Review,2016.
[13]Gou,Qin,Yiping Huang,and Jianguo Xu.Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Growth Revisited:Different Effects of Inflow and Outflow Liberalization[R].Working Paper National School of Development,Peking University.
[14]Halland,Havard,John Beardsworth,Bryan Land,and James Schmidt.Resource Financed Infrastructure:A Discussion on a New Form of Infrastructure Financing[R].The World Bank,Washington DC,2014.
[15]Hofstede,Geert.Cultures and Organizations:Software of the Mind[M].McGraw-Hill,London,1991.
[16]Hofstede,Geert,Gert Jan Hofstede,Michael Minkov,Cultures and Organizations:Software of the Mind[M].Revised and Expanded 3rd Edition.New York:McGraw-Hill USA,2010.
[17]IMF,World Economic Outlook[R].Chapter 3on Infrastructure,Washington DC,2014.
[18]Ju,Jiandong,Justin Yifu Lin,and Yong Wang.Endowment Structures,Industrial Dynamics,and Economic Growth[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,76(November 2015):244-263.doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2015.09.006.
[19]Kapur,Basant.Global Financial Imbalances and Endogenous Growth in a North-South Setting[R].Working Paper,National University of Singapore,2016.
[20]Kose,Ayhan,Eswar Prasad,Kenneth Rogoff,and Shang-Jin Wei.Financial Globalization:A Reappraisal[R].IMFStaff Papers,Volume 56,No.1.Washington DC,2009.
[21]Kukharskyy,Bohdan.Relational Contracts and Global Sourcing[J].Journal of International Economics,2016.
[22]Lin,Justin Yifu.Beyond Keynesianism:The Necessity of a Globally Coordinated Solution[J].Harvard International Review,31(2):14-17.
[23]---.New Structural Economics:A Framework for Rethinking Development[R].Policy Research Working Paper5197,World Bank,Washington,DC,2010.
[24]---.New Structural Economics:A Framework for Rethinking Development[J].World Bank Research Observer,2011a,26(2):193-221.
[25]---.Global Crisis Requires Global Solutions[Z].Speech prepared for the Council on Foreign Relations,New York(February 28),2011b.
[26]---.A Pro-Growth Response to the Crisis[J].Intereconomics:Review of European Economic Policy,2011c,46(6):321-326.
[27]---.Growth Identification and Facilitation:The Role of the State in the Dynamics of Structural Change[J].Development Policy Review,2011d,29(3):264-290.
[28]---.The Quest for Prosperity:How Developing Economies Can Take Off[M].Princeton,NJ:Princeton University Press,2012.
[29]---.New Structural Economics:A Framework for Rethinking Development and Policy[R].Washington DC,World Bank,2012b.
[30]---.Building Infrastructure for a Brighter Future:How Infrastructure Investment Initiative can Generate Growth and Create Jobs in the Developed World[Z].Article for Foreign Policy,2012c.
[31]---.Against the Consensus:Reflections on the Great Recession[M].Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[32]---.The Washington Consensus Revisited:A New Structural Economics Perspective[J].Journal of Economic Policy Reform,2015a,18(2):96-113,DOI:10.1080/17487870.2014.936439.
[33]---.Why I Do Not Support Complete Capital Account Liberalization[J].China Economic Journal,2015b,8(1):86-93,DOI:10.1080/17538963.2015.1002178.
[34]Lin,Justin Yifu and Kevin Lu.Infrastructure's Class of Its Own[Z].Project Syndicate(https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/justin-yifu-lin-and-kevin-lu-argue-that-to-attract-private-investment-infrastructure-must-be-redefined-as-a-new-asset-class?barrier=accessreg),2014.
[35]Lin,Justin Yifu and Yan Wang.Beyond the Marshall Plan:The Global Structural Transformation Fund(GSTF)[D].A paper for the UN's Post-2015development agenda.Published in May 2013.Available online.
[36]Lin,Justin Yifu and Yan Wang.“Comments”in Halland,Havard,John Beardsworth,Bryan Land,and James Schmidt.Resource Financed Infrastructure:A Discussion on a New Form of Infrastructure Financing[R].The World Bank,Washington DC,2014.
[37]Lin,Justin Yifu and Yan Wang.Going Beyond Aid:Development Cooperation for Structural Transformation.Cambridge University Press,2017.
[38]Lin,Justin Yifu,Kevin Lu,and CledanMandri-Perrott.New Equities for Infrastructure Investment[Z].Project Syndicate(https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/infrastructure-investment-asset-class-by-justin-yifu-lin-et-al-2015-03?barrier=accessreg),2015.
[39]Lu,Kevin and Justin Yifu Lin.To Finance the World's Infrastructure,We Need a New Asset Class[Z].The World Post,A Partnership of the Hufftong Post and Berggruen Institute(http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kevin-lu/worldbank-global-infrastructure-facility_b_4078840.html),2013.
[40]Mendoza,Enrique G.;Quadrini,Vincenzo;Rios-Rull,Jose-Victor.Financial Integration,Financial Development,and Global Imbalances[J].Journal of Political Economy,2009.
[41]OECD.Infrastructure Financing Instruments and Incentives[R].The project is under Secretary General of the OECD.Paris,2015.
[42]Peterson,George E.Unlocking Land Values to Finance Urban Infrastructure:Land-based Financing Options for Cities[Z].Trends and Policy Options Series,Washington DC,2008.
[43]Spence,Michael.The Growth Report:Principal Findings and Recommendations[Z].2008.
[44]Stiglitz,Joseph E.A Nobel Laureate Explains How Trump Could Nuke the Economy[Z].Vanity Fair,December27,2016.
[45]TANG,Xiaoyang.China-Africa Economic Diplomacy and Its Implication to Global Value Chain[Z].(In Chinese),World Knowledge Publishers Beijing,September 2014,pp.81-88.
[46]Wang,Yan.Infrastructure:The Foundation for Growth and Poverty Reduction:A Synthesis[Z].Chapter III in Volume II,Economic Transformation and Poverty Reduction:How it Happened in China,Helping it Happen in Africa,China-OECD/DAC Study Group.
[47]World Bank.Global Economic Prospects:Uncertainties and Vulnerabilities[R].The World Bank,Washington,DC.
[48]---Chinese FDI in Ethiopia[Z].A World Bank Survey,2012.
[49]---Supporting Infrastructure Development in Low-Income Countries[R].The World Bank,Washington,DC.
[50]Zeng,Douglas Zhihua.An Assessment of Six Economic Zones in Nigeria,in Farole,Thomas,Special Economic Zones in Africa:Comparing Performance and Learning from Global Experience[R].The World Bank,Washington DC,2010.
(1)“显而易见的是,以更加传统的经济学为基础提出的一些建议不再有效。政策制定者不能依赖于像‘保持财政平衡制约’、‘利用货币政策控制通货膨胀’和‘保持宏观经济稳定’一样的简单的政策指导,然后等着市场自行完成接下来的调整。想当然地认为用这种方法促进的增长能够潜移默化地改善贫困人口的生活,这是一种站不住脚的假设。确实,我们现在的困境部分是由于太遵循那些过时的建议而造成的。”见Towards a Consensus on the Principles of Policymaking for the Contemporary World,http://www.sida.se/globalassets/sida/eng/press/stockholm-statement.pdf,2016-11-15。
(1)See Lin(2009b).
(2)参见Lin(2011c)、Lin和Doemerland(2012)、Lin(2013),以及Lin和Wang(2013)(http://www.post2015hlp.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Lin-Wang_Beyond-the-Marshall-Plan-A-Global-Structural-Transformation-Fund.pdf)。
(3)See Lin and Wang,Going Beyond Aid:Development Cooperation for Structural Transformation,Cambridge University Press,2017.
(4)See www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/pdf/c3.pdf
(1)例如,Aschauer(1989)发现,公共基础设施资本存量是决定美国全要素生产率总值的重要因素。他预测基础设施资本的边际产出每年高达100%。Canning和Bennathan(2000)指出:“在数量有限的一些国家,我们发现了表明电力产能和平整路面产能急剧短缺的证据,大量超额资本又回到了基础设施投资中。”
(1)关于合法、典型的土地资产基础设施融资,见Peterson和George(2008)。
(1)五大文化维度是个人主义、男性气质、不确定性的规避、长期导向性和权利距离(Hofstede,1991)。
(2)中国价值调查是Michael Bond与其中国同事于1971年开展的调查。其中第四个维度与儒家学说中的恒心(毅力)高度相关,即节俭、遵守身份决定的关系及次序、拥有羞耻感、稳重(Hofstede等,2010)。
(1)“对冲基金的关键点不是长期性,对对冲基金来说,一个季度几乎就是永恒了。它们的目标是在华盛顿觉醒之前,把钱快速充入政府慷慨的订单”,Joseph E.Stiglitz(Vanity Fair,2016年12月27日)。
(2)这个概念符合Justin Lin和Kevin Lu的博客中所说的“购买并持有”的资本(Lu和Lin,2013;Lin和Lu,2014;Lin、Lu和Mandri-Perrott,2015)。