基于区位熵的耕地变化与经济发展的相互关系探讨——以湖南省为例
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摘要
以湖南省为例,选取了经济、人口、农业和城市化中的12个因子,运用灰色关联分析模型分析了湖南省2005～2016年耕地变化的主要影响因素,揭示耕地变化的作用机制;其次运用土地利用弹性系数和区位熵等方法对耕地变化与经济发展的相互关系进行了探讨,为制定合理的耕地保护政策提供了依据。研究结果表明:(1)湖南省耕地变化呈现先减少后增加的特征,其中2008～2009年间增幅最大。(2)在耕地变化的12个影响因子中,灰色关联度值最高的是农业人口。(3)自2009年后湖南省土地利用集约度较低。(4)湖南省14个地级市中,长沙、湘潭、岳阳3个城市区位熵值介于0～1之间,经济发展对耕地变化影响较小。
A total of 12 factors related to economy, population, agriculture and urbanization were selected, and the main influencing factors of cultivated land changes in Hunan province from 2005 to 2016 were analyzed by using grey relation degree model. The relationship between cultivated land change and economic development was explored by means of land use elasticity coefficient and location entropy. The results indicated that:(1) the changes in cultivated land of Hunan province decreased first and then increased, and its increment during 2008～2009 was the biggest;(2) among the 12 factors affecting cultivated land changes, the agricultural population had the highest grey relation degree;(3) since the year 2009, the intensity of land use in Hunan province has been relatively low;(4) in 14 prefecture-level cities of Hunan province, the location entropies of Changsha, Xiangtan and Yueyang were between 0 and 1, showing that the economic development in these cities has little influence on the changes in cultivated land.
A total of 12 factors related to economy, population, agriculture and urbanization were selected, and the main influencing factors of cultivated land changes in Hunan province from 2005 to 2016 were analyzed by using grey relation degree model. The relationship between cultivated land change and economic development was explored by means of land use elasticity coefficient and location entropy. The results indicated that:(1) the changes in cultivated land of Hunan province decreased first and then increased, and its increment during 2008～2009 was the biggest;(2) among the 12 factors affecting cultivated land changes, the agricultural population had the highest grey relation degree;(3) since the year 2009, the intensity of land use in Hunan province has been relatively low;(4) in 14 prefecture-level cities of Hunan province, the location entropies of Changsha, Xiangtan and Yueyang were between 0 and 1, showing that the economic development in these cities has little influence on the changes in cultivated land.
引文
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[4] 李秀彬.全球环境变化研究的核心领域:土地利用/土地覆被变化的国际研究动向[J].地理学报,1996,63(6):553-558.
[5] Fritz S,See L,Mccallum I,et al.Mapping global cropland and field size[J].Global Change Biology,2015,21(5):1980-1992.
[6] 谈明洪,吕昌河.城市用地扩展与耕地保护[J].自然资源学报,2005,20(1):52-58.
[7] 潘佩佩,王晓旭,杨桂山,等.经济快速发展地区耕地质量时空变化格局研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2015,31(4):65-70.
[8] 王忠俊.西安市耕地资源变化与经济发展的协整性与因果关系研究[J].陕西农业科学,2013,59(3):197-199.
[9] 李兆富,杨桂山.湖州市50年耕地资源变化与经济发展关系研究[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2006,22(2):128-131.
[10] 曲福田,吴丽梅.经济增长与耕地非农化的库兹涅茨曲线假说及验证[J].资源科学,2004(5):61-67.
[11] 杨桂山.土地利用/覆被变化与区域经济发展:长江三角洲近50年耕地数量变化研究的启示[J].地理学报,2004,59(增刊1):41-46.
[12] 高金兰,马晓群,张庆国,等.安徽省粮食单产趋势变化及主要经济因素影响分析[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(3):108-115.
[13] 湖南省统计局.湖南统计年鉴(2017)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2017.
[14] 邓聚龙.灰色系统理论的关联空间[J].模糊数学,1985(2):1-10.
[15] 张凤太,苏维词,周继霞.基于熵权灰色关联分析的城市生态安全评价[J].生态学杂志,2008(7):1249-1254.
[16] 高鸿业.西方经济学[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2011.
[17] 张佑印,顾静,黄河清.中国区域旅游产业结构变化的空间差异分析[J].经济地理,2012,32(4):155-159,172.