县域农业资源承载力评价预警系统构建初探
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摘要
[目的]建立农业资源承载能力评价预警系统,加快提升农业资源环境管控能力,是调结构转方式、推进农业绿色发展、建设美丽中国的重大举措。[方法]按照绿色发展理念,以"驱动力—压力—状态—影响—响应"(DPSIR)理论为基础构建农业资源承载力理论模型。[结果]以县域耕地和草地为研究对象,提出了基于承载体变化态势的农业资源承载能力评价预警思路;建立了农业资源承载力评价指标与综合集成评价方法、农业资源超载类型和预警等级划分体系;设计了农业资源超载成因解析准则和承载力调控政策创新方向。[结论]基于承载体视角的资源承载力评价预警系统适用于开放的县域农业资源管理;建立健全农业资源监测体系和资源台账,面向评价预警需求长期积累专题数据,突破"数据短板"。
Establishing an evaluation and early-warning system for carrying capacity of agricultural resources and speeding up the management of agricultural resources and environment are the important measures for transferring mode,adjusting structure,promoting the green-agriculture and building a beautiful China. We constructed a theoretical model of agricultural resources carrying capacity based on the " Driving Force-Pressure-State-Influence-Response"( DPSIR) theory. Taking the cultivated land and grassland in counties as the research object,this paper put forward the idea of early-warning of agricultural resources carrying capacity based on the trends of bearing bodies,established an evaluation index system and integrated evaluation methods of agricultural resources carrying capacity.Furthermore,classification methods of overloading and warning levels were constructed. Based on above,we pointed out the analysis principles of overloading origins and put forward an innovation direction of the control policies for agricultural resources carrying capacity. Based on the perspective of the supporting body of the evaluation and earlywarning system for resources carrying capacity is applicable to the open county-scale agricultural resources managements. Establishing and improving agricultural resources monitoring and accounting system,and accumulating the thematic data for evaluation and early-warning system in the long-term could break the " data short board".
Establishing an evaluation and early-warning system for carrying capacity of agricultural resources and speeding up the management of agricultural resources and environment are the important measures for transferring mode,adjusting structure,promoting the green-agriculture and building a beautiful China. We constructed a theoretical model of agricultural resources carrying capacity based on the " Driving Force-Pressure-State-Influence-Response"( DPSIR) theory. Taking the cultivated land and grassland in counties as the research object,this paper put forward the idea of early-warning of agricultural resources carrying capacity based on the trends of bearing bodies,established an evaluation index system and integrated evaluation methods of agricultural resources carrying capacity.Furthermore,classification methods of overloading and warning levels were constructed. Based on above,we pointed out the analysis principles of overloading origins and put forward an innovation direction of the control policies for agricultural resources carrying capacity. Based on the perspective of the supporting body of the evaluation and earlywarning system for resources carrying capacity is applicable to the open county-scale agricultural resources managements. Establishing and improving agricultural resources monitoring and accounting system,and accumulating the thematic data for evaluation and early-warning system in the long-term could break the " data short board".
引文
[1]张合成.探索建立重要农业资源监测与管理制度.中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(7):1~3
[2]盛来运,付凌晖.转型期农业发展对经济增长的影响.中国农村经济,2014,(1):4~12,37
[3]万宝瑞.当前我国农业发展的趋势与建议.农业经济问题,2014,34(4):4~7,110
[4]黄季焜.新时期的中国农业发展:机遇、挑战和战略选择.中国科学院院刊,2013,28(3):295~300
[5]赵其国.当前我国农业发展中存在的深层次问题及对策.生态环境学报,2013,22(6):911~915
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[7]龙胤慧,郭中小,廖梓龙,等.基于水资源承载能力的达茂旗牧区用水方案优化.地理科学,2015,35(2):238~244
[8]王顺久,杨志峰,丁晶.关中平原地下水资源承载力综合评价的投影寻踪方法.资源科学,2004,26(6):104~110
[9]石汝杰.基于三角白化权函数的重庆市水资源承载力灰色聚类评价.中国农业资源与区划,2015,36(6):22~29
[10]彭文英,刘念北.首都圈人口空间分布优化策略——基于土地资源承载力估测.地理科学,2015,35(5):558~564
[11]杨亮,吕耀,郑华玉.城市土地承载力研究进展.地理科学进展,2010,29(5):593~600
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[13]温亮,游珍,林裕梅,等.基于层次分析法的土地资源承载力评价——以宁国市为例.中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(3):1~6
[14]王长建,杜宏茹,张小雷,等.塔里木河流域相对资源承载力.生态学报,2015,35(9):2880~2893
[15]孙慧,刘媛媛.相对资源承载力模型的扩展与实证.中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(11):126~135
[16]汪菲,杨德刚,王长建,等.新疆相对资源承载力及可持续发展时空演变特征分析.中国沙漠,2013,33(5):1605~1613
[17]唐华俊,罗其友.农业区域发展学导论.北京:科学出版社,2008
[18]樊杰,王亚飞,汤青,等.全国资源环境承载能力监测预警(2014版)学术思路与总体技术流程.地理科学,2015,35(1):1~10
[19]曹琦,陈兴鹏,师满江.基于DPSIR概念的城市水资源安全评价及调控.资源科学,2012,34(8):1591~1599
[20]周政达,王辰星,付晓,等.基于DPSIR模型的国家大型煤电基地生态效应评估指标体系.生态学报,2014,34(11):2830~2836
[21]李民,邓楚雄,谢炳庚,等.基于DPSIR模型的长沙市低碳经济发展水平变化评价.农业现代化研究,2016,37(3):453~459
[2]盛来运,付凌晖.转型期农业发展对经济增长的影响.中国农村经济,2014,(1):4~12,37
[3]万宝瑞.当前我国农业发展的趋势与建议.农业经济问题,2014,34(4):4~7,110
[4]黄季焜.新时期的中国农业发展:机遇、挑战和战略选择.中国科学院院刊,2013,28(3):295~300
[5]赵其国.当前我国农业发展中存在的深层次问题及对策.生态环境学报,2013,22(6):911~915
[6]段春青,刘昌明,陈晓楠,等.区域水资源承载力概念及研究方法的探讨.地理学报,2010,65(1):82~90
[7]龙胤慧,郭中小,廖梓龙,等.基于水资源承载能力的达茂旗牧区用水方案优化.地理科学,2015,35(2):238~244
[8]王顺久,杨志峰,丁晶.关中平原地下水资源承载力综合评价的投影寻踪方法.资源科学,2004,26(6):104~110
[9]石汝杰.基于三角白化权函数的重庆市水资源承载力灰色聚类评价.中国农业资源与区划,2015,36(6):22~29
[10]彭文英,刘念北.首都圈人口空间分布优化策略——基于土地资源承载力估测.地理科学,2015,35(5):558~564
[11]杨亮,吕耀,郑华玉.城市土地承载力研究进展.地理科学进展,2010,29(5):593~600
[12]罗雁文,魏晓,王良健,等.湖南省各市(州)土地资源承载力评价.经济地理,2009,29(2):284~289
[13]温亮,游珍,林裕梅,等.基于层次分析法的土地资源承载力评价——以宁国市为例.中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(3):1~6
[14]王长建,杜宏茹,张小雷,等.塔里木河流域相对资源承载力.生态学报,2015,35(9):2880~2893
[15]孙慧,刘媛媛.相对资源承载力模型的扩展与实证.中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(11):126~135
[16]汪菲,杨德刚,王长建,等.新疆相对资源承载力及可持续发展时空演变特征分析.中国沙漠,2013,33(5):1605~1613
[17]唐华俊,罗其友.农业区域发展学导论.北京:科学出版社,2008
[18]樊杰,王亚飞,汤青,等.全国资源环境承载能力监测预警(2014版)学术思路与总体技术流程.地理科学,2015,35(1):1~10
[19]曹琦,陈兴鹏,师满江.基于DPSIR概念的城市水资源安全评价及调控.资源科学,2012,34(8):1591~1599
[20]周政达,王辰星,付晓,等.基于DPSIR模型的国家大型煤电基地生态效应评估指标体系.生态学报,2014,34(11):2830~2836
[21]李民,邓楚雄,谢炳庚,等.基于DPSIR模型的长沙市低碳经济发展水平变化评价.农业现代化研究,2016,37(3):453~459