省级食品安全监督抽检工作样本量的确定方法研究
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摘要
目的提出省级食品安全监督抽检工作样本量的确定方法。方法按照简单随机抽样方法计算最低样本量,以县、区级监测区域数量作为扩容依据,确定最终监督抽检样本总量。结果一类错误取不同值时,计算所得样本量不同,当一类错误取0.05时,使用本文提出的方法计算的监测样本总量与创建食品安全示范城市要求的抽检样品数量要求相一致。结论所提出的按照简单随机抽样方法和统计学公式确定监督抽检样本量,具有一定的科学性,可供监管部门和行业内相关人员探讨。
Objective To put forward a method to determine the sample size of food safety supervision and sampling inspection at provincial level. Methods According to the simple random sampling method, the minimum sample size was calculated, the number of monitoring areas at the county and district level was used as the basis for expansion, and the total amount of samples for final supervision sampling was determined. Results When a type of error took different values, the calculated sample size was different. When a type of error was taken as 0.05, the total amount of monitoring samples calculated using the method proposed in this paper was consistent with the requirement for the number of sample samples required to create a food safety demonstration city. Conclusion The proposed sample size according to the simple random sampling method and the statistical formula is determined to be scientific, and can be used by the regulatory authorities and relevant personnel in the industry.
Objective To put forward a method to determine the sample size of food safety supervision and sampling inspection at provincial level. Methods According to the simple random sampling method, the minimum sample size was calculated, the number of monitoring areas at the county and district level was used as the basis for expansion, and the total amount of samples for final supervision sampling was determined. Results When a type of error took different values, the calculated sample size was different. When a type of error was taken as 0.05, the total amount of monitoring samples calculated using the method proposed in this paper was consistent with the requirement for the number of sample samples required to create a food safety demonstration city. Conclusion The proposed sample size according to the simple random sampling method and the statistical formula is determined to be scientific, and can be used by the regulatory authorities and relevant personnel in the industry.
引文
[1]国家食品药品监督管理总局.食品安全抽样检验管理办法[Z].China Food and Drug Administration.Management measures for sampling inspection of food safety[Z].
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[12]杨大进,李宁.2013年国家食品污染和有害因素风险工作手册[M].北京:中国标准出版社,2012.Yang DJ,Li N.2013 National food pollution and hazardous factor risk manual[M].Beijing:China Standards Publishing House,2012.
[13]广东省统计局,国家统计局广东调查总队.2018年广东国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL].[2019-2-20].http://stats.gd.gov.cn/attachment/0/321/321956/2207563.pdf?ref=spec,2019-2-20/2019-4-11.Statistical Bureau of Guangdong Province,Guangdong Investigation Team of the National Bureau of Statistics.2018 Statistical bulletin on national economic and social development of guangdong province[EB/OL].[2019-2-20].http://stats.gd.gov.cn/attachment/0/321/321956/2207563.pdf?ref=spec,2019-2-20/2019-4-11.
[2]何平,王煜红,汪小明,等.提高我国食品安全抽检监测有效性的分析和建设[J].中国酿造,2015,34(3):162-165.He P,Wang YH,Wang XM,et al.Analysis and suggestion to improve the validity of food safety inspection and monitoring[J].China Brew,2015,34(3):162-165.
[3]李越凡.有效进行食品安全抽检监测工作相关问题探讨[J].中国药事,2016,30(5):426-428.Li YF.Dicussion on the problems about implementation of the food safety monitoring[J].Chin Med,2016,30(5):426-428.
[4]方积乾,孙振球.卫生统计学(第5版)[M].北京:人民卫生出版社,2005.Fang JQ,Sun ZQ.Health statistics(5th Edition)[M].Beijing:People's Medical Publishing House,2005.
[5]孙振球,徐勇勇.医学统计学(第二版)[M].北京:人民卫生出版社,2005.Sun ZQ,Xu YY.Medical statistics(2th edition)[M].Beijing:People's Medical Publishing House,2005.
[6]李琦,熊宁,刘勇,等.湖北省稻谷质量调查、品质测报样品扦样量优化的研究[J].粮食与饲料工业,2017,(2):6-12.Li Q,Xiong N,Liu Y,et al.Optimization of sampling scheme of survey and forecast of paddy harvest quality in Hubei province[J].Cere Feed Ind,2017,(2):6-12.
[7]李洁明,祁新娥.统计学原理[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2010.Li JM,Qi XE.Principles of statistics[M].Shanghai:Fudan University Press,2010.
[8]金勇进,蒋妍,李序颖.抽样技术[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002.Jin YJ,Jiang Y,Li XY.Sampling technique[M].Beijing:Renmin University Press,2002.
[9]Crisp A,Curtis P.Sample size estimation for non-inferiority trails of time-to-event date[J].Pharm Statist,2008,(7):236-244.
[10]马文斌,周淑琴.稻谷品质测报抽样样本容量的优化分析[J].粮食与食品工业,2014,11(4):45-48.Ma WB,Zhou SQ.Optimum analysis of sample size for rice quality forecasting[J].Food Food Ind,2014,11(4):45-48.
[11]张革庆.食品抽样样本量的确定与网格化抽样管理的探讨[J].中国科技投资,2018,(11):384.Zhang GQ.Determination of sample size of food sampling and discussion on grid sampling management[J].Sci Technol Invest China,2018,(11):384.
[12]杨大进,李宁.2013年国家食品污染和有害因素风险工作手册[M].北京:中国标准出版社,2012.Yang DJ,Li N.2013 National food pollution and hazardous factor risk manual[M].Beijing:China Standards Publishing House,2012.
[13]广东省统计局,国家统计局广东调查总队.2018年广东国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL].[2019-2-20].http://stats.gd.gov.cn/attachment/0/321/321956/2207563.pdf?ref=spec,2019-2-20/2019-4-11.Statistical Bureau of Guangdong Province,Guangdong Investigation Team of the National Bureau of Statistics.2018 Statistical bulletin on national economic and social development of guangdong province[EB/OL].[2019-2-20].http://stats.gd.gov.cn/attachment/0/321/321956/2207563.pdf?ref=spec,2019-2-20/2019-4-11.