事前-事中两阶段突发事件应急决策方法
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摘要
针对具有事前不确定情景预测信息的突发事件应急响应决策问题,考虑到事前防灾、减灾措施会对事中应对措施的实施效果造成影响的问题特点,提出了一种事前-事中两阶段突发事件应急决策方法.该方法中,首先通过计算各事中应对措施的效用值确定针对不同防灾、减灾措施和事中灾害情景的最优事中应对措施;然后,基于后悔理论的思想,构建两两防灾、减灾措施比较的过度应对预期后悔矩阵和应对不足预期后悔矩阵,进而构建综合预期后悔矩阵;在此基础上,分别计算各防灾、减灾措施的全局预期欣喜值、全局预期后悔值和排序值,并最终确定事前防灾、减灾措施和针对不同事中灾害情景的应对措施.最后,通过一个案例研究说明了本文所提出方法的计算过程.
With respect to the emergency response problem with uncertain scenario predictions, a beforehandongoing two-stage decision making method is proposed considering that the prevention actions adopted beforehand will affect the effects of response actions when the emergency is ongoing. In the method, by calculating the utility of each response action, the most desirable response action concerning each prevention action and each scenario is determined. Then, based on the idea of regret theory, the excessive response matrix and insufficient response matrix for pairwise comparisons of prevention actions are constructed,and then an overall anticipated regret matrix is built for selection the desirable prevention action. Further, the global delight value, global regret value and ranking value of each prevention action is calculated according to the overall anticipated regret matrix. Moreover, the ranking of the prevention actions can be determined, and the desirable prevention action and the response action corresponding to each emergency scenario can be obtained. Finally, a case study is given to illustrate the use of the proposed method.
With respect to the emergency response problem with uncertain scenario predictions, a beforehandongoing two-stage decision making method is proposed considering that the prevention actions adopted beforehand will affect the effects of response actions when the emergency is ongoing. In the method, by calculating the utility of each response action, the most desirable response action concerning each prevention action and each scenario is determined. Then, based on the idea of regret theory, the excessive response matrix and insufficient response matrix for pairwise comparisons of prevention actions are constructed,and then an overall anticipated regret matrix is built for selection the desirable prevention action. Further, the global delight value, global regret value and ranking value of each prevention action is calculated according to the overall anticipated regret matrix. Moreover, the ranking of the prevention actions can be determined, and the desirable prevention action and the response action corresponding to each emergency scenario can be obtained. Finally, a case study is given to illustrate the use of the proposed method.
引文
[1]中华人民共和国国务院法制办.中华人民共和国突发事件应对法[M].北京:中国法制出版社,2007.The People's Republic of China State Council Legislative Affairs Office. The People's Republic of China emergency response law[M]. Beijing:China Legal Publishing House, 2007.
[2]中华人民共和国国务院法制办.国家突发公共事件总体应急预案[M].北京:中国法制出版社,2006.The People's Republic of China State Council Legislative Affairs Office. The overall national public emergency contingency plan[M]. Beijing:China Legal Publishing House, 2006.
[3]网易新闻.超强台风“海马” 21日或登陆广东中东部沿海[EB/OL].[2016-10-19]. http://news.163.com/16/1019/10/C301M52G00014SEH.html.NetEase News. Super typhoon"Haim"will land central eastern coast of Guangdong on 21[EB/OL].[2016-10-19].http://news.163.com/16/1019/10/C3O1M52G00014SEH.html.
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[5] Tamura H, Yamamoto K, Tomiyama S, et al. Modeling and analysis of decision making problem for mitigating natural disaster risks[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2000, 122(2):461-468.
[6] Hamalainen R P, Lindstedt M R K, Sinkko K. Multiattribute risk analysis in nuclear emergency management[J].Risk Analysis, 2000, 20(4):455-467.
[7]杨文国,黄钧,池宏,等,信息缺失下的应急方案选择模型及算法研究[J].中国管理科学,2007, 15(Special issue):729-732.Yang W G, Huang J, Chi H, et al. The study on the choosing emergency plan problem with incomplete information[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2007, 15(Special issue):729-732.
[8]姜艳萍,樊治平,苏明明.应急决策方案的动态调整方法研究[J].中国管理科学,2011,19(5):104-108.Jiang Y P, Fan Z P, Su M M. Study on the dynamic adjusting method for emergency decision[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2011, 19(5):104-108.
[9]樊治平,刘洋,沈荣鉴.基于前景理论的突发事件应急响应的风险决策方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012, 32(5):977-984.Fan Z P, Liu Y, Shen R J. Risk decision analysis method for emergency response based on prospect theory[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2012, 32(5):977-984.
[10] Liu Y, Fan Z P, Zhang Y. Risk decision analysis in emergency response:A method based on cumulative prospect theory[J]. Computers&Operations Research, 2014, 42:75-82.
[11]王亮,王应明.基于前景理论的动态参考点应急决策方法研究[J].中国管理科学,2013, 21(Special issue):132-140.Wang L, Wang Y M. Study on the emergency decision method of dynamic reference point based on prospect theory[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2013, 21(Special issue):132-140.
[12]李仕峰,杨乃定,张云翌.突发事件下选择应急方案的风险决策方法[J].控制与决策,2013, 28(12):1859-1863.Li S F, Yang N D, Zhang Y Y. Risk decision analysis method for emergency plan selection[J]. Control and Decision, 2013, 28(12):1859-1863.
[13]尔古打机,寇纲,杜义飞·不完全信息下非常规突发事件应急决策缺失数据处理模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(3):702-713.Ergu D J, Kou G, Du Y F. Missing data processing model for unconventional emergency decision-making under incomplete information[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2015, 35(3):702-713.
[14] Regnier E. Public evacuation decisions and hurricane track uncertainty[J]. Management Science, 2008, 54(1):16-28.
[15]袁媛,刘洋,樊治平·考虑后悔规避的突发事件应急响应的风险决策方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015, 35(10):2630-2636.Yuan Y, Liu Y, Fan Z P. Risk decision making method for emergency response considering regret aversion[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2015, 35(10):2630-2636.
[16]张晓,樊治平,陈发动.基于后悔理论的风险型多属性决策方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013, 33(9):2313-2320.Zhang X, Fan Z P, Chen F D. Method for risky multiple attribute decision making based on regret theory[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2013, 33(9):2313-2320.
[17] Bell D E. Regret in decision making under uncertainty[J]. Operations Research, 1982, 30(5):961-981.
[18] Loomes G, Sugden R. Regret theory:An alternative theory of rational choice under uncertainty[J]. The Economic Journal, 1982, 92(368):805-824.
[19] Quiggin J. Regret theory with general choice sets[J]. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1994, 8(2):153-165.
[20] Tversky A, Kahneman D. Advances in prospect theory:Cumulative representation of uncertainty[J]. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1992, 5(4):297-323.
[21] Chorus C G. Regret theory based route choices and traffic equilibria[J]. Transportmetrica, 2010, 8:291-305.
[22]于超,樊治平.考虑决策者后悔规避的风险投资项目选择方法[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(6):29-37.Yu C, Fan Z P. Method for venture capital project selection considering decision maker's regret aversion[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2016, 24(6):29-37.
[2]中华人民共和国国务院法制办.国家突发公共事件总体应急预案[M].北京:中国法制出版社,2006.The People's Republic of China State Council Legislative Affairs Office. The overall national public emergency contingency plan[M]. Beijing:China Legal Publishing House, 2006.
[3]网易新闻.超强台风“海马” 21日或登陆广东中东部沿海[EB/OL].[2016-10-19]. http://news.163.com/16/1019/10/C301M52G00014SEH.html.NetEase News. Super typhoon"Haim"will land central eastern coast of Guangdong on 21[EB/OL].[2016-10-19].http://news.163.com/16/1019/10/C3O1M52G00014SEH.html.
[4] Wikipedia. Tangjiashan lake[J]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tangjiashan_Lake.
[5] Tamura H, Yamamoto K, Tomiyama S, et al. Modeling and analysis of decision making problem for mitigating natural disaster risks[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2000, 122(2):461-468.
[6] Hamalainen R P, Lindstedt M R K, Sinkko K. Multiattribute risk analysis in nuclear emergency management[J].Risk Analysis, 2000, 20(4):455-467.
[7]杨文国,黄钧,池宏,等,信息缺失下的应急方案选择模型及算法研究[J].中国管理科学,2007, 15(Special issue):729-732.Yang W G, Huang J, Chi H, et al. The study on the choosing emergency plan problem with incomplete information[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2007, 15(Special issue):729-732.
[8]姜艳萍,樊治平,苏明明.应急决策方案的动态调整方法研究[J].中国管理科学,2011,19(5):104-108.Jiang Y P, Fan Z P, Su M M. Study on the dynamic adjusting method for emergency decision[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2011, 19(5):104-108.
[9]樊治平,刘洋,沈荣鉴.基于前景理论的突发事件应急响应的风险决策方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012, 32(5):977-984.Fan Z P, Liu Y, Shen R J. Risk decision analysis method for emergency response based on prospect theory[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2012, 32(5):977-984.
[10] Liu Y, Fan Z P, Zhang Y. Risk decision analysis in emergency response:A method based on cumulative prospect theory[J]. Computers&Operations Research, 2014, 42:75-82.
[11]王亮,王应明.基于前景理论的动态参考点应急决策方法研究[J].中国管理科学,2013, 21(Special issue):132-140.Wang L, Wang Y M. Study on the emergency decision method of dynamic reference point based on prospect theory[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2013, 21(Special issue):132-140.
[12]李仕峰,杨乃定,张云翌.突发事件下选择应急方案的风险决策方法[J].控制与决策,2013, 28(12):1859-1863.Li S F, Yang N D, Zhang Y Y. Risk decision analysis method for emergency plan selection[J]. Control and Decision, 2013, 28(12):1859-1863.
[13]尔古打机,寇纲,杜义飞·不完全信息下非常规突发事件应急决策缺失数据处理模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(3):702-713.Ergu D J, Kou G, Du Y F. Missing data processing model for unconventional emergency decision-making under incomplete information[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2015, 35(3):702-713.
[14] Regnier E. Public evacuation decisions and hurricane track uncertainty[J]. Management Science, 2008, 54(1):16-28.
[15]袁媛,刘洋,樊治平·考虑后悔规避的突发事件应急响应的风险决策方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015, 35(10):2630-2636.Yuan Y, Liu Y, Fan Z P. Risk decision making method for emergency response considering regret aversion[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2015, 35(10):2630-2636.
[16]张晓,樊治平,陈发动.基于后悔理论的风险型多属性决策方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013, 33(9):2313-2320.Zhang X, Fan Z P, Chen F D. Method for risky multiple attribute decision making based on regret theory[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2013, 33(9):2313-2320.
[17] Bell D E. Regret in decision making under uncertainty[J]. Operations Research, 1982, 30(5):961-981.
[18] Loomes G, Sugden R. Regret theory:An alternative theory of rational choice under uncertainty[J]. The Economic Journal, 1982, 92(368):805-824.
[19] Quiggin J. Regret theory with general choice sets[J]. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1994, 8(2):153-165.
[20] Tversky A, Kahneman D. Advances in prospect theory:Cumulative representation of uncertainty[J]. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1992, 5(4):297-323.
[21] Chorus C G. Regret theory based route choices and traffic equilibria[J]. Transportmetrica, 2010, 8:291-305.
[22]于超,樊治平.考虑决策者后悔规避的风险投资项目选择方法[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(6):29-37.Yu C, Fan Z P. Method for venture capital project selection considering decision maker's regret aversion[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2016, 24(6):29-37.