2016年“7.19”京津冀极端降水系统的动热力结构及不稳定条件分析
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摘要
利用NCEP/NCAR的GFS再分析资料,结合中国气象局气象信息中心提供的全国自动站观测降水量资料、CMORPH卫星反演降水资料、FY2反演降水资料和雷达定量估测降水产品融合的降水资料,对造成2016年7月19～21日北京—天津—河北(以下简称京津冀)地区的极端降水天气系统动热力结构演变以及不稳定条件进行了诊断分析,揭示了京津冀地区上空不同气压层上天气尺度系统的配置,水汽条件,降水发生的垂直运动条件及不稳定层结演变情况。结果表明:(1)500 hPa呈现东高西低的环流形势,与700 hPa低涡和高低空急流相配合,副高北抬阻挡华北地区低涡的东移,导致低涡在京津冀地区停滞是此次降水发生的环流背景;(2)低层的低涡东移发展与中高层正涡度叠加对暴雨发生有重要作用;(3)引用位势散度分析对流不稳定度变化的原因表明,降水区后部的京津冀西南地区,低层的位势不稳定主要由位势散度的水平风垂直切变部分决定,代表水平风垂直切变和大气湿斜压的共同作用,弱降水区以及降水区后方的低层位势散度为负值,有利于该区域位势不稳定加强,强降水区及降水区前方位势散度为正值,抑制了位势不稳定发展。位势散度变化可以通过影响大气稳定度变化进而影响降水落区,位势散度的高值区对应了降水大值区,尤其是700 hPa位势散度对降水落区有很好的指示作用,可以结合位势散度的变化对降水落区进行预估。
The evolution of dynamic and thermal structure and instability condition of an extreme precipitation system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are analyzed using the NCEP/NCAR Global Forecast System(GFS) data combined with national automatic stations observations of precipitation provided by the Meteorological Information Center of China Meteorological Administration, the CMORPH satellite precipitation data and the fusion of precipitation data from the FY2 precipitation and radar quantitative estimation of precipitation. This study reveals the configuration of weather systems in different air pressure zones over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Vertical motion, water vapor condition and unstable stratification evolution during the precipitation process are explored. The results are as follows.(1) The circulation at 500 hPa presented an east-high-west-low pattern, which was coordinated with a low-level vortex at 700 hPa and jet streams in low and high levels. The subtropical high blocked the eastward movement of the low-level vortex in North China, making it stagnant in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.(2) The development and eastward-moving of the low level vortex was important for the occurrence of the rainstorm.(3) The potential divergence analysis was applied to explore changes in convective instability. Results indicate that in the rear of the precipitation area, lower-level potential instability was mainly determined by vertical wind shear, which reflected the joint effects of vertical wind shear and moist baroclinicity. Lower-level potential divergence was negative in weak precipitation area and behind the precipitation area, which was conducive to regional potential instability. Potential divergence was positive in strong precipitation area and in front of precipitation area, inhibiting the development of potential instability. The change in potential divergence affected precipitation region through affecting the atmospheric stability. The high value region of potential divergence corresponded to high value region of precipitation, especially the 700 hPa potential divergence was a good indicator for precipitation region, which could be estimated by the change of potential divergence at 700 h Pa.
The evolution of dynamic and thermal structure and instability condition of an extreme precipitation system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are analyzed using the NCEP/NCAR Global Forecast System(GFS) data combined with national automatic stations observations of precipitation provided by the Meteorological Information Center of China Meteorological Administration, the CMORPH satellite precipitation data and the fusion of precipitation data from the FY2 precipitation and radar quantitative estimation of precipitation. This study reveals the configuration of weather systems in different air pressure zones over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Vertical motion, water vapor condition and unstable stratification evolution during the precipitation process are explored. The results are as follows.(1) The circulation at 500 hPa presented an east-high-west-low pattern, which was coordinated with a low-level vortex at 700 hPa and jet streams in low and high levels. The subtropical high blocked the eastward movement of the low-level vortex in North China, making it stagnant in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.(2) The development and eastward-moving of the low level vortex was important for the occurrence of the rainstorm.(3) The potential divergence analysis was applied to explore changes in convective instability. Results indicate that in the rear of the precipitation area, lower-level potential instability was mainly determined by vertical wind shear, which reflected the joint effects of vertical wind shear and moist baroclinicity. Lower-level potential divergence was negative in weak precipitation area and behind the precipitation area, which was conducive to regional potential instability. Potential divergence was positive in strong precipitation area and in front of precipitation area, inhibiting the development of potential instability. The change in potential divergence affected precipitation region through affecting the atmospheric stability. The high value region of potential divergence corresponded to high value region of precipitation, especially the 700 hPa potential divergence was a good indicator for precipitation region, which could be estimated by the change of potential divergence at 700 h Pa.
引文
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李娜,冉令坤,周玉淑,等.2013.北京“7.21”暴雨过程中变形场引起的锋生与倾斜涡度发展诊断分析[J].气象学报,71(4):593-605.Li Na,Ran Lingkun,Zhou Yushu,et al.2013.Diagnosis of the frontogenesis and slantwise vorticity development caused by the deformation in the Beijing“7.21”torrential rainfall event[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),71(4):593-605.doi:10.11676/qxxb2013.065
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刘还珠,王维国,邵明轩,等.2007.西太平洋副热带高压影响下北京区域性暴雨的个例分析[J].大气科学,31(4):727-734.Liu Huanzhu,Wang Weiguo,Shao Mingxuan,et al.2007.A case study of the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high on the torrential rainfall in Beijing area[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),31(4):727-734.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2007.04.17
刘璐,冉令坤,周玉淑,等.2015.北京“7.21”暴雨的不稳定性及其触发机制分析[J].大气科学,39(3):583-595.Liu Lu,Ran Lingkun,Zhou Yushu,et al.2015.Analysis on the instability and trigger mechanism of torrential rainfall event in Beijing on 21 July2012[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),39(3):583-595.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1407.14144
全美兰,刘海文,朱玉祥,等.2013.高空急流在北京“7.21”暴雨中的动力作用[J].气象学报,71(6):1012-1019.Quan Meilan,Liu Haiwen,Zhu Yuxiang,et al.2013.Study of the dynamic effects of the upper-level jet stream on the Beijing rainstorm of 21 July 2012[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),71(6):1012-1019.doi:10.11676/qxxb2013.092
冉令坤,齐彦斌,郝寿昌.2014.“7.21”暴雨过程动力因子分析和预报研究[J].大气科学,38(1):83-100.Ran Lingkun,Qi Yanbin,Hao Shouchang.2014.Analysis and forecasting of heavy rainfall case on 21 July 2012 with dynamical parameters[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),38(1):83-100.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.12160
沈艳,潘旸,宇婧婧,等.2013.中国区域小时降水量融合产品的质量评估[J].大气科学学报,36(1):37-46.Shen Yan,Pan Yang,Yu Jingjing,et al.2013.Quality assessment of hourly merged precipitation product over China[J].Transactions Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),36(1):37-46.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-7097.2013.01.005
盛春岩,高守亭,史玉光.2012.地形对门头沟一次大暴雨动力作用的数值研究[J].气象学报,70(1):65-77.Sheng Chunyan,Gao Shouting,Shi Yuguang.2012.Numerical simulation of the dynamic effect of the orography on a Mentougou severe torrential rain event[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),70(1):65-77.doi:10.11676/qxxb2012.006
孙建华,张小玲,卫捷,等.2005.20世纪90年代华北大暴雨过程特征的分析研究[J].气候与环境研究,10(3):492-506.Sun Jianhua,Zhang Xiaoling,Wei Jie,et al.2005.A study on severe heavy rainfall in North China during the 1990s[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),10(3):492-506.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-9585.2005.03.020
孙建华,赵思雄,傅慎明,等.2013.2012年7月21日北京特大暴雨的多尺度特征[J].大气科学,37(3):705-718.Sun Jianhua,Zhao Sixiong,Fu Shenming,et al.2013.Multi-scale characteristics of record heavy rainfall over Beijing area on July 21,2012[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),37(3):705-718.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.12202
孙继松.2005a.气流的垂直分布对地形雨落区的影响[J].高原气象,24(1):62-69.Sun Jisong.2005a.The effects of vertical distribution of the lower level flow on precipitation location[J].Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),24(1):62-69.doi:10.3321/j.issn:1000-0534.2005.01.010
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