新型可变编组高速动车组创新功能优势及经济效益评价研究
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摘要
随着我国社会经济持续快速发展,消费者对于高铁运输的需求急剧增长。本文采用多元回归法预测2020年全国动车组客流量,进一步证实高铁有极高的社会需求。然而我国高铁运输存在供需矛盾及自身的结构性矛盾。目前急需充分利用已有线路运输能力,在基本不增加成本的基础上,改进动车组的实用性、舒适性等。本文从成本节约和收入增加两条路径入手,表明应用新型工业化平台及动车组、优化运行模式及开行方案,可为铁路行业寻求新的经济增长点。并基于动车保有量的增加,预测2020年及2025年运行新型列车的经济效益。得出结论:新型可变编组高速动车组工业化平台可大大降低动车组的生产、运行及检修成本;新型可变编组高速动车组可在基本不增加运行成本的情况下大幅增加客运及货运能力,直接增加高铁的经济效益。
With the rapid development of China's social economy, consumers demand for high-speed rail transport shows a sharp increase. In this paper, the multivariate regression method is applied to predict the passenger flow rate of the national motor vehicle group in 2020, which further proves the high social demand of the high-speed railway.However, China's high-speed railway transportation has the contradiction between supply and demand and its own structural contradictions as well. At present, it is urgent to make full use of the existing line transport capacity, and improve the practicability and comfort of the train on the basis of the basic cost. This paper analyzes the economic benefits of the new high-speed train from cost saving and revenue growth. It is indicated that new economic growth points can be found for the railway industry through the application of new industrial platform and the new EMUs, optimizing operation mode and development plan. Then based on the increase of holding volume, the economic benefits of new high-speed EMUs running in 2020 and 2025 are predicted. We draw the conclusion: the Industrial Platform of Variable Formation can greatly reduce the production, operation and maintenance cost. And the New EMUs of Variable Formation can significantly increase passenger and freight capacity without increasing operating costs, and directly increase the economic benefits of high-speed rail.
With the rapid development of China's social economy, consumers demand for high-speed rail transport shows a sharp increase. In this paper, the multivariate regression method is applied to predict the passenger flow rate of the national motor vehicle group in 2020, which further proves the high social demand of the high-speed railway.However, China's high-speed railway transportation has the contradiction between supply and demand and its own structural contradictions as well. At present, it is urgent to make full use of the existing line transport capacity, and improve the practicability and comfort of the train on the basis of the basic cost. This paper analyzes the economic benefits of the new high-speed train from cost saving and revenue growth. It is indicated that new economic growth points can be found for the railway industry through the application of new industrial platform and the new EMUs, optimizing operation mode and development plan. Then based on the increase of holding volume, the economic benefits of new high-speed EMUs running in 2020 and 2025 are predicted. We draw the conclusion: the Industrial Platform of Variable Formation can greatly reduce the production, operation and maintenance cost. And the New EMUs of Variable Formation can significantly increase passenger and freight capacity without increasing operating costs, and directly increase the economic benefits of high-speed rail.
引文
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[2]肖翔,朱向东.城市轨道交通项目风险评价与管理研究[M].北京:中央文献出版社,2015.
[3]刘会芳.我国铁路客运量的组合问题研究[D].长沙:长沙理工大学,2013.
[4]王丽雯.我国高速铁路货运产品开发[J].石家庄铁道大学学报(自然科学版),2014(03):106-110.
[5]官秀敏,张国芹.我国高速动车组标准化系列化探讨[J].铁道技术监督,2015(06):1-4.
[6]黄俊辉.可变编组动车组设计[M].北京:中国铁道出版社,2015.
[7]康洪军,赵鹏,杨帅,张庆刚,乔珂.可变编组动车组合理运用方式及其适用范围分析[J].综合运输,2017,39(09):64-67.
[8]杨帅,赵鹏,康洪军,张庆刚.高速铁路可变编组动车组适用性分析[J].铁道运输与经济,2017,39(11):67-71.
[9]魏晓洁.高铁快递:我国铁路多元化经营的战略创新[J].综合运输,2012(7):51-55.