基于区间二型模糊AHP-VIKOR的风电建设项目投资风险决策模型研究
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摘要
从决策角度入手,对风电建设项目投资规划阶段的风险体系进行梳理和识别,形成风电建设项目投资规划阶段风险指标体系。考虑指标属性与权重信息的不确定、模糊性以及决策者所持风险态度,结合区间二型模糊数与AHP-VIKOR算法,构造基于区间二型模糊AHP-VIKOR的风险决策模型,并运用到风电建设项目中验证该方法的合理性和有效性。
In this paper, the risk system of wind power construction project investment planning stage is combed and identified from the decision-making point of view, and;the risk index system of the investment planning stage of the wind power construction project is formed. Considering the uncertainty, fuzziness of the attribute and weight information, and the risk attitude of the decision-makers, a risk decision model based on interval type-2 fuzzy AHP-VIKOR algorithm is constructed, and the rationality and effectiveness of the method are verified in the project of wind power construction.
In this paper, the risk system of wind power construction project investment planning stage is combed and identified from the decision-making point of view, and;the risk index system of the investment planning stage of the wind power construction project is formed. Considering the uncertainty, fuzziness of the attribute and weight information, and the risk attitude of the decision-makers, a risk decision model based on interval type-2 fuzzy AHP-VIKOR algorithm is constructed, and the rationality and effectiveness of the method are verified in the project of wind power construction.
引文
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[16]赵树平,梁昌勇,罗大伟.基于VIKOR和诱导广义直觉梯形模糊Choquet积分算子的多属性群决策方法[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(6):132-142.
[17]高志方,杨青,彭定洪.基于云模型的区间VIKOR多准则决策方法研究[J].昆明理工大学学报(自然科学版), 2013,38(5):111-116.
[18]郑皎,章恒全,焦俊,等.云模型与VIKOR集成的多属性群决策方法[J].计算机工程与应用, 2017,53(24):94-99.
[19]王铁旦,孙洁霖, 彭定洪.基于区间二型模糊集的VIKOR多属性决策方法研究[J].价值工程, 2013(29):305-307.
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[21]MENDEL J M, JOHN R I, LIU F. Interval type-2 fuzzy logic systems made simple[J].IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 2006,14(6):808-821.
[22]CHEN T Y. A linear assignment method for multiple-criteria decision analysis with interval type-2 fuzzy sets[J]. Applied Soft Computing Journal, 2013,13(5):2735-2748.
[23]CHEN S M, LEE L W. Fuzzy multiple attributes group decision-making based on the interval type-2 TOPSIS method[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2010,37(4):2790-2798.
[24]SAATY T L. The analytic hierarchy process[M]. New York:McGrawHill, 1980.
[25]BUCKLEY J J, FEURING T, HAYASHI Y. Fuzzy hierarchical analysis[J].IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems,1999,5(2):1009-1013.
[26]KAHRAMAN C. Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process with interval type-2 fuzzy sets[J]. Knowledge-Based Systems, 2014,59(2):48-57.
[27]OPRICOVIC S, TZENG G H. Compromise solution by MCDM methods: A comparative analysis of VIKOR and TOPSIS[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2004,156(2):445-455.
[28]王铁旦,孙洁霖,彭定洪.基于区间二型模糊集的VIKOR多属性决策方法研究[J].价值工程, 2013(29):305-307.
[29]QIN J, LIU X, PEDRYCZ W. An extended TODIM multi-criteria group decision making method for green supplier selection in interval type-2 fuzzy environment[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2016,258(2).
[30]DYMOVA L, SEVASTJANOV P, TTKHONENKO A. An interval type-2 fuzzy extension of the TOPSIS method using alpha cuts[J]. Knowledge-Based Systems, 2015, 83(1):116-127.
[31]GHORABAEE M K, AMIRI M, SADAGHIANI J S, et al. Multiple criteria group decision-making for supplier selection based on COPRAS method with interval type-2 fuzzy sets[J]. International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 2014, 75(5-8):1115-1130.
[32]张市芳.直觉模糊多属性群决策的VIKOR方法[J]. 西安工业大学学报, 2015(3):182-185.
[2]WU Y, HU Y, XIAO X, et al. Efficiency assessment of wind farms in China using two-stage data envelopment analysis[J]. Energy Conversion & Management, 2016,123:46-55.
[3]杨腾飞.大型风电项目风险评价及规避策略研究[J].经营管理者,2016(27):124-125.
[4]刘鹏.风电项目的风险分析与管理对策分析[J]. 科技传播,2013(3):75-84.
[5]张懿.陆上风电工程造价风险分析及评估研究[D]. 北京:华北电力大学(北京),2016.
[6]贾远绘,汤春明,鲍莉荣.基于风险视角的风电项目多属性决策模型探讨[J].电子测试, 2013(4):221-222.
[7]李存斌,苑嘉航,祁之强.基于灰色累积前景理论分布式电源投资风险型决策[J].华东电力, 2014,42(5):993-998.
[8]李峰,刘正超,贾晓希,等.基于全寿命周期理论的风电项目投资风险评价模型[J].华东电力, 2012(4):531-535.
[9]海姆斯.风险建模、评估和管理[M]. 胡平,译.2版.西安:西安交通大学出版社,2007.
[10]王晓霞,孙源,原杰.基于损益值矩阵法优化企业生产销售[J].现代电子技术, 2012,35(22):94-96.
[11]GóMEZ-LIMóN J A, GUTIéRREZ M C, RIESGO L. Modeling at farm level: positive Multi-Attribute Utility Programming [J]. Omega, 2016,65:17-27.
[12]NOURANI V, MOLAJOU A. Application of a hybrid association rules/decision tree model for drought monitoring[J].Global & Planetary Change, 2017,159:37-45.
[13]OPRICOVIC S, TZENG G H. Extended VIKOR method in comparison with outranking methods[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2007,178(2):514-529.
[14]林晓华,安相华,贾文华.产品方案优选的区间二型模糊VIKOR法[J].机械设计与制造, 2017(3):11-15.
[15]李勇,王燕.基于AHP和VIKOR的房地产企业项目投资决策评价研究[J].项目管理技术, 2014,12(2):84-88.
[16]赵树平,梁昌勇,罗大伟.基于VIKOR和诱导广义直觉梯形模糊Choquet积分算子的多属性群决策方法[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(6):132-142.
[17]高志方,杨青,彭定洪.基于云模型的区间VIKOR多准则决策方法研究[J].昆明理工大学学报(自然科学版), 2013,38(5):111-116.
[18]郑皎,章恒全,焦俊,等.云模型与VIKOR集成的多属性群决策方法[J].计算机工程与应用, 2017,53(24):94-99.
[19]王铁旦,孙洁霖, 彭定洪.基于区间二型模糊集的VIKOR多属性决策方法研究[J].价值工程, 2013(29):305-307.
[20]CORMIER A, BELLASSEN V. The risks of CDM projects: how did only 30% of expected credits come through?[J].Energy Policy, 2013,54(2):173-183.
[21]MENDEL J M, JOHN R I, LIU F. Interval type-2 fuzzy logic systems made simple[J].IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 2006,14(6):808-821.
[22]CHEN T Y. A linear assignment method for multiple-criteria decision analysis with interval type-2 fuzzy sets[J]. Applied Soft Computing Journal, 2013,13(5):2735-2748.
[23]CHEN S M, LEE L W. Fuzzy multiple attributes group decision-making based on the interval type-2 TOPSIS method[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2010,37(4):2790-2798.
[24]SAATY T L. The analytic hierarchy process[M]. New York:McGrawHill, 1980.
[25]BUCKLEY J J, FEURING T, HAYASHI Y. Fuzzy hierarchical analysis[J].IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems,1999,5(2):1009-1013.
[26]KAHRAMAN C. Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process with interval type-2 fuzzy sets[J]. Knowledge-Based Systems, 2014,59(2):48-57.
[27]OPRICOVIC S, TZENG G H. Compromise solution by MCDM methods: A comparative analysis of VIKOR and TOPSIS[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2004,156(2):445-455.
[28]王铁旦,孙洁霖,彭定洪.基于区间二型模糊集的VIKOR多属性决策方法研究[J].价值工程, 2013(29):305-307.
[29]QIN J, LIU X, PEDRYCZ W. An extended TODIM multi-criteria group decision making method for green supplier selection in interval type-2 fuzzy environment[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2016,258(2).
[30]DYMOVA L, SEVASTJANOV P, TTKHONENKO A. An interval type-2 fuzzy extension of the TOPSIS method using alpha cuts[J]. Knowledge-Based Systems, 2015, 83(1):116-127.
[31]GHORABAEE M K, AMIRI M, SADAGHIANI J S, et al. Multiple criteria group decision-making for supplier selection based on COPRAS method with interval type-2 fuzzy sets[J]. International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 2014, 75(5-8):1115-1130.
[32]张市芳.直觉模糊多属性群决策的VIKOR方法[J]. 西安工业大学学报, 2015(3):182-185.