长江经济带产业体系四元子系统协调发展的时空差异研究
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摘要
依据党的十九代报告关于产业体系的表述,构建产业体系四元子系统——实体经济、科技创新、现代金融、人力资源协调发展评价模型,实证研究2006—2016年长江经济带省域产业体系发展水平、耦合状态和协调发展状况的时空差异特征。研究发现:长江经济带产业体系发展水平稳步增长,但存在从下游到上游梯度下降的差序格局,并且差序格局表现出明显的锁定特征和加剧趋势;产业体系耦合状态整体从2006年的较低耦合上升到2016年的中度耦合,下游的上海、江苏、浙江耦合状态持续改善从而达到高度耦合状态,上游的云贵两省耦合度由中度耦合恶化为极低度耦合,其他省份的耦合度表现波动上升趋势;产业体系协调发展状态从中度失调改善为勉强协调,下游省市稳步提升到中度协调发展和良性协调发展阶段,江西、云南、贵州协调发展状况改善缓慢且仍然处于轻度失调发展阶段,其他省份协调发展水平呈上升趋势但尚未实现向协调发展的跨越。
According to the de? nition of industrial system in 19 th CPC National Congress report, by constructing the evaluation model of the coordinated development of industrial systems with quaternary subsystem-entity economy,scienti? c and technological innovation, modern ? nance and human resources, this paper empirically studies the spatialtemporal difference characteristics of the development level, coupling degree and coordinated development status of industrial system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2006 to 2016. It is found that:(1) the development level of the industrial system is steadily increasing, but there is a gradient descending pattern from downstream to upstream, and the differential pattern reveals the obvious lock-in feature and aggravating trend.(2) The coupling state of the industrial system has generally increased from the lower coupling in 2006 to the moderate coupling in 2016. Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang have continuously improved to a highly coupling state, Yunnan and Guizhou provinces have deteriorated from the moderate coupling to the very low coupling, and other provinces have an upward trend.(3) The coordinated development of industrial system in the whole Economic Belt has been improved from moderate imbalance to reluctant coordination. The downstream provinces have steadily upgraded to the stage of moderate and sound coordinated development. Jiangxi, Yunnan and Guizhou are still in the stage of mild imbalance. Other provinces show an upward trend, but have not yet leaped to the coordinated development.
According to the de? nition of industrial system in 19 th CPC National Congress report, by constructing the evaluation model of the coordinated development of industrial systems with quaternary subsystem-entity economy,scienti? c and technological innovation, modern ? nance and human resources, this paper empirically studies the spatialtemporal difference characteristics of the development level, coupling degree and coordinated development status of industrial system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2006 to 2016. It is found that:(1) the development level of the industrial system is steadily increasing, but there is a gradient descending pattern from downstream to upstream, and the differential pattern reveals the obvious lock-in feature and aggravating trend.(2) The coupling state of the industrial system has generally increased from the lower coupling in 2006 to the moderate coupling in 2016. Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang have continuously improved to a highly coupling state, Yunnan and Guizhou provinces have deteriorated from the moderate coupling to the very low coupling, and other provinces have an upward trend.(3) The coordinated development of industrial system in the whole Economic Belt has been improved from moderate imbalance to reluctant coordination. The downstream provinces have steadily upgraded to the stage of moderate and sound coordinated development. Jiangxi, Yunnan and Guizhou are still in the stage of mild imbalance. Other provinces show an upward trend, but have not yet leaped to the coordinated development.
引文
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[2]Solow R M. A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1956,70(1).
[3]Lucas Jr R E. On the mechanics of economic development[J].Journal of monetary economics,1988,22(1).
[4]Romer P M. Endogenous technological change[J]. Journal of political Economy,1990,98(5,Part 2).
[5]Young A. Learning by doing and the dynamic effects of international trade[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1991,106(2).
[6]Capello R,Lenzi C. Capello R,Lenzi C.Spatial heterogeneity in knowledge,innovation,and economic growth nexus:conceptual reflections and empirical evidence[J]. Journal of Regional Science,2014,54(2).
[7]Rodríguez-Pose A,Villarreal Peralta E M. Innovation and Regional Growth in Mexico:2000-2010[J]. Growth and Change,2015,46(2).
[8]Pece A M,Simona O E O,Salisteanu F. Innovation and economic growth:An empirical analysis for CEE countries[J]. Procedia Economics and Finance,2015(6).
[9]侯茂章,曾路.省域技术创新发展差异对经济增长的影响研究——基于中部六省和东部五省市的实证分析[J].工业技术经济,2015(4).
[10]樊杰,刘汉初.“十三五”时期科技创新驱动对我国区域发展格局变化的影响与适应[J].经济地理,2016(1).
[11]Gurley J G,Shaw E S. Financial structure and economic development[J]. Economic development and cultural change,1967,15(3).
[12]Goldsmith R W. Financial Structure and Development[M].New Haven:Yale University Press,1969.
[13]Shaw E. Financial deepening in economic development[M].New York:Oxford University Press,1973.
[14]King R G,Levine R.Finance and growth:Schumpeter might be right[J]. The quarterly journal of economics,1993,108(3).
[15]Apergis N,Filippidis I,Economidou C. Financial deepening and economic growth linkages:a panel data analysis[J]. Review of World Economics,2007,143(1).
[16]Fisman R,Love I. Trade credit,financial intermediary development,and industry growth[J]. The Journal of finance,2003,58(1).
[17]刘志彪.建设实体经济与要素投入协同发展的产业体系[J].天津社会科学,2018(2).
[18]刘志彪.理清六大关系,建立四位协同的现代产业体系[N].新华日报,2018-01-03.
[19]于世海.区域科技创新与经济增长质量的耦合协调性——基于桂、滇、黔2009—2015年的数据[J].社会科学家,2018(4).
[20]杨武,杨淼.中国科技创新与经济发展耦合协调度模型[J].中国科技论坛,2016(3).
[21]申韬,雷蕾.东盟国家金融生态环境与经济增长的耦合协调度差异分析[J].改革与战略,2018(8).
[22]刘芳,廖凯诚,彭耿.湖南省区域金融与经济耦合协调发展研究[J].湖南社会科学,2017(3).
[23]赵忠君,蒋东梅.长株潭人力资本与经济增长的耦合度分析[J].湖南商学院学报,2015(6).
[24]郭江江,戚巍,缪亚军.我国科技与经济社会发展协调度的测度研究[J].中国科技论坛,2012(5).
[25]刘满凤.中部地区六省科技发展与经济发展的协调性比较分析[J].科技管理研究,2010(1).
[26]胡双发.西部地区金融与经济协调发展研究[J].开发研究,2016(3).
[27]单良,宋关东.区域人力资源开发与经济发展的时空耦合分析——以环渤海地区为例[J].人口学刊,2016(4).
[28]周惠民,逯进.金融发展与经济增长的时空耦合度测度——以长三角城市群为例[J].城市问题,2017(3).
[29]侯纯光,程钰,任建兰.山东省“新五化”协调发展时空演变[J].经济地理,2016(10).
[30]谢艳艳.科技创新与经济发展耦合协调关系及空间分异研究——以甘肃为例[J].生产力研究,2017(8).
[31]蒋天颖,刘程军.长江三角洲区域创新与经济增长的耦合协调研究[J].地域研究与开发,2015(6).
[32]逯进,朱顺杰.金融生态、经济增长与区域发展差异——基于中国省域数据的耦合实证分析[J].管理评论,2015(11).
[33]彭新一,王春梅.区域高校科技创新能力与经济发展水平耦合协调研究[J].科技管理研究,2018(3).