1995—2011年中国制造业全球价值链动态演进过程分析——基于Ti VA数据库的新兴市场国家比较!
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摘要
基于OECD-WTO联合发布的Ti VA统计数据,利用全球价值链参与度、关联度与产业演进系数等量化方法,对1995—2011年中国制造业在全球价值链中的演进过程与趋势特征开展了实证检验,并在与其他新兴市场国家的比较中明晰所处位置与类型。研究结果表明:中国及其他新兴市场国家制造业全球价值链参与表现出明显的趋同性,参与度较高且为上升、收敛态势,中国制造业参与的进度更大、程度更深、水平更高;经历了振荡发展、加速融入、平稳调整等三个发展阶段,表现为"倒S形"发展过程,并在前向、后向两个方向上以渐趋平衡的关联度嵌入全球产业链,更具网络的稳固性与根植性;受此影响,中国及新兴市场国家的制造业内部随之出现不同程度的产业调适;中国的产业演进突出表现在由低技术产业向高技术产业演进,低技术产业仍然偏高,中高技术产业发展不足,属于跨梯度演进模式。这一演进特征与中国自身所处发展阶段与制造业总体水平紧密相关,也受到中国全面推进对外开放、加大工业化步伐、调整产业结构与加入WTO等政策因素的影响。
Referring to the GVC analysis framework based on global value chain and national accounts accounting system proposed by Koopman et al,the paper examined and reinterpreted the connotation and its application value of GVC correlation, and established the industrial evolution co-efficient,which was used to describe the manufacturing industrial changes caused by global value chain participation process,thus forming a method system suitable for the dynamic evolution analysis of global value chains. Based on the Ti VA statistical data jointly published by OECD-WTO,by applying a quantitative analysis method consisting of GVC participation index,correlation index and industrial evolution co-efficient,the paper made an empirical analysis of the evolution,trends and characteristics of China' s manufacturing industry in the global value chain participation in the period of 1995—2011,and determined its position and type in comparison with other emerging market countries. The research shows that the global value chains participation in China and other emerging market countries has significant convergence,and the GVC participation is relatively high and rising and converging. The GVC participation of China' s manufacturing is more progressive,deeper and higher. It has undergone three stages of development: oscillation development,accelerated integration and smooth adjustment, which is characterized by an "invert S-shaped " development processs. China' s manufacturing is embedded in the global industrial chain with a gradually balanced GVC Correlation in both forward and backward directions,and thus making the industrial network more stable and embedded. Under its influences,there comes to be varied degrees of industrial adjustment within China ' s manufacturing and emerging market countries. China' s manufacturing has evolved obviously from a low-tech industry to a high-tech one,but the proportion of low-tech industry is still higher,meanwhile the medium-and high-tech industries are still under-developed. It is closely related to China's own development stage and the overall level of manufacturing,as well as such China' s policies and strategic factors as opening-up policy,the pace of industrialization,the adjustments in the industrial structure and the participation in WTO.
Referring to the GVC analysis framework based on global value chain and national accounts accounting system proposed by Koopman et al,the paper examined and reinterpreted the connotation and its application value of GVC correlation, and established the industrial evolution co-efficient,which was used to describe the manufacturing industrial changes caused by global value chain participation process,thus forming a method system suitable for the dynamic evolution analysis of global value chains. Based on the Ti VA statistical data jointly published by OECD-WTO,by applying a quantitative analysis method consisting of GVC participation index,correlation index and industrial evolution co-efficient,the paper made an empirical analysis of the evolution,trends and characteristics of China' s manufacturing industry in the global value chain participation in the period of 1995—2011,and determined its position and type in comparison with other emerging market countries. The research shows that the global value chains participation in China and other emerging market countries has significant convergence,and the GVC participation is relatively high and rising and converging. The GVC participation of China' s manufacturing is more progressive,deeper and higher. It has undergone three stages of development: oscillation development,accelerated integration and smooth adjustment, which is characterized by an "invert S-shaped " development processs. China' s manufacturing is embedded in the global industrial chain with a gradually balanced GVC Correlation in both forward and backward directions,and thus making the industrial network more stable and embedded. Under its influences,there comes to be varied degrees of industrial adjustment within China ' s manufacturing and emerging market countries. China' s manufacturing has evolved obviously from a low-tech industry to a high-tech one,but the proportion of low-tech industry is still higher,meanwhile the medium-and high-tech industries are still under-developed. It is closely related to China's own development stage and the overall level of manufacturing,as well as such China' s policies and strategic factors as opening-up policy,the pace of industrialization,the adjustments in the industrial structure and the participation in WTO.
引文
[1]GARY GEREFFI,JOONKOO LEE.Why the World Suddenly Cares about Global Supply Chains[J].Journal of Supply Chain Management,2012,48(3):24-32.
[2]洪世勤,刘厚俊.中国制造业出口技术结构的测度及影响因素研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015(3):77-93.
[3]尹伟华.全球价值链视角下中国制造业出口贸易分解分析---基于最新的WIOD数据[J].经济学家,2017(8):33-39.
[4]DAUDIN G,RIFFLART C,SCHWEISGUTH D.Who Produces for Whom in the World Economy?[J].Canadian Journal of Economics,2011(4):1403-1437.
[5]KOOPMAN R,WANG Z,WEI S J.Estimating Domestic Content in Exports When Processing Trade is Pervasive[J].Journal of Development Economics,2012,99(1):178-189.
[6]GARY GEREFFI.Beyond the Producer-driven/Buyer-driven Dichotomy The Evolution of Global Value Chains in the Internet Era[J].IDS Bulletin,2001,32(3):30-40.
[7]HUMMELS D,ISHII J,YI K M.The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade[J].Journal of International Economics,2001,54(1):75-96.
[8]JOHNSON R C,NOGUERA G.Accounting for Intermediates:Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added[J].Journal of International Economics,2012,86(2):224-236.
[9]ROBERT C,JOHNSON,GUILLERMO N.Accounting for Intermediates:Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added[J].Journal of lnternational Economics,2012,186(2):224-236.
[10]KOOPMAN R,WANG Z,WEI S J.Tracing Value-added and Double Counting in Gross exports[J].American E-conomic Review,2014,104(2):459-494.
[11]TIMMER M P.Slicing up Global Value Chains[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,2014,28(2):99-118.
[12]刘遵义,陈锡康,杨翠红,等.非竞争型投入占用产出模型及其应用---中美贸易顺差透视[J].中国社会科学,2007(5):91-103.
[13]李昕,徐滇庆.中国外贸依存度和失衡度的重新估算---全球生产链中的增加值贸易[J].中国社会科学,2013(1):29-55.
[14]罗长远,张军.附加值贸易:基于中国的实证分析[J].经济研究,2014(6):4-11.
[15]张杰,陈志远,刘元春.中国出口国内附加值的测算与变化机制[J].经济研究,2013(10):124-137.
[16]王直,魏尚进,祝坤福.总贸易核算法:官方贸易统计与全球价值链的度量[J].中国社会科学,2015(9):108-127.
[17]王厚双,李艳秀,朱奕绮.我国服务业在全球价值链分工中的地位研究[J].世界经济研究,2015(8):11-18.
[18]乔小勇,王耕,郑晨曦.我国服务业及其细分行业在全球价值链中的地位研究---基于“地位-参与度-显性比较优势”视角[J].世界经济研究,2017(2):99-113.
[19]程大中.中国参与全球价值链分工的程度及演变趋势---基于跨国投入-产出分析[J].经济研究,2015(9):4-16.
(1)数据来自《中国历年统计年鉴》与《中国贸易外经统计年鉴》,或由此计算而得。
[2]洪世勤,刘厚俊.中国制造业出口技术结构的测度及影响因素研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015(3):77-93.
[3]尹伟华.全球价值链视角下中国制造业出口贸易分解分析---基于最新的WIOD数据[J].经济学家,2017(8):33-39.
[4]DAUDIN G,RIFFLART C,SCHWEISGUTH D.Who Produces for Whom in the World Economy?[J].Canadian Journal of Economics,2011(4):1403-1437.
[5]KOOPMAN R,WANG Z,WEI S J.Estimating Domestic Content in Exports When Processing Trade is Pervasive[J].Journal of Development Economics,2012,99(1):178-189.
[6]GARY GEREFFI.Beyond the Producer-driven/Buyer-driven Dichotomy The Evolution of Global Value Chains in the Internet Era[J].IDS Bulletin,2001,32(3):30-40.
[7]HUMMELS D,ISHII J,YI K M.The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade[J].Journal of International Economics,2001,54(1):75-96.
[8]JOHNSON R C,NOGUERA G.Accounting for Intermediates:Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added[J].Journal of International Economics,2012,86(2):224-236.
[9]ROBERT C,JOHNSON,GUILLERMO N.Accounting for Intermediates:Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added[J].Journal of lnternational Economics,2012,186(2):224-236.
[10]KOOPMAN R,WANG Z,WEI S J.Tracing Value-added and Double Counting in Gross exports[J].American E-conomic Review,2014,104(2):459-494.
[11]TIMMER M P.Slicing up Global Value Chains[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,2014,28(2):99-118.
[12]刘遵义,陈锡康,杨翠红,等.非竞争型投入占用产出模型及其应用---中美贸易顺差透视[J].中国社会科学,2007(5):91-103.
[13]李昕,徐滇庆.中国外贸依存度和失衡度的重新估算---全球生产链中的增加值贸易[J].中国社会科学,2013(1):29-55.
[14]罗长远,张军.附加值贸易:基于中国的实证分析[J].经济研究,2014(6):4-11.
[15]张杰,陈志远,刘元春.中国出口国内附加值的测算与变化机制[J].经济研究,2013(10):124-137.
[16]王直,魏尚进,祝坤福.总贸易核算法:官方贸易统计与全球价值链的度量[J].中国社会科学,2015(9):108-127.
[17]王厚双,李艳秀,朱奕绮.我国服务业在全球价值链分工中的地位研究[J].世界经济研究,2015(8):11-18.
[18]乔小勇,王耕,郑晨曦.我国服务业及其细分行业在全球价值链中的地位研究---基于“地位-参与度-显性比较优势”视角[J].世界经济研究,2017(2):99-113.
[19]程大中.中国参与全球价值链分工的程度及演变趋势---基于跨国投入-产出分析[J].经济研究,2015(9):4-16.
(1)数据来自《中国历年统计年鉴》与《中国贸易外经统计年鉴》,或由此计算而得。