基于EEMD视角的农业保险与农业信贷互动绩效——以山东省为例
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摘要
为研究农业保险与农业信贷之间是否具有协同关系,采用EEMD分析方法,对山东省1982—2015年农业保险保费收入和农业贷款余额年度数据进行研究,结果表明:两者均由高频分量、低频分量和趋势项构成。上述结构分量的格兰杰因果检验表明,农业保险和农业贷款高频分量之间在1%的水平上互为因果关系;而低频分量间存在不对称的传导方式,即在1%的水平上农业贷款到农业保险存在单向因果关系,在10%的水平上两者互为因果关系。
In order to investigate whether there is a synergy between agricultural insurance and agricultural credit,EEMD analysis method was used to study the annual data of agricultural insurance premium income and agricultural loan balance in Shandong Province from 1982 to 2015.The results show that both of agricultural insurance and agricultural credit are composed of high-frequency,low-frequency and trends,respectively.The Granger causality tests show that the high-frequency between agricultural insurance and agricultural loans are causally related to each other at the level of 1%.While there is two-way asymmetrical transmission relationship between low-frequency,at the level of 1%,only one-way causal relationship from agricultural loans to agricultural insurance,And at the 10% level,these two are related to each other.
In order to investigate whether there is a synergy between agricultural insurance and agricultural credit,EEMD analysis method was used to study the annual data of agricultural insurance premium income and agricultural loan balance in Shandong Province from 1982 to 2015.The results show that both of agricultural insurance and agricultural credit are composed of high-frequency,low-frequency and trends,respectively.The Granger causality tests show that the high-frequency between agricultural insurance and agricultural loans are causally related to each other at the level of 1%.While there is two-way asymmetrical transmission relationship between low-frequency,at the level of 1%,only one-way causal relationship from agricultural loans to agricultural insurance,And at the 10% level,these two are related to each other.
引文
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[16] Wu Z H,Huang N E,Chen X Y.The multi-dimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition method[J].Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis,2009,1(3):339-372
[17] Huang N E,Shen Z,Long S R,Wu M C,Shi H H,Zheng Q,Yen N C,Tung C C,Liu H H.The empirical mode decomposition and the hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis[J].Proceedings of the Royal Society A:Mathematical,Physical and Engineering Sciences,1998,454(1971):903-995
[18] Zhang X,Lai K K,Wang S Y.A new approach for crude oil price analysis based on empirical mode decomposition[J].Energy Economics,2008,30(3):905-918
[19] 中新网.山东金融机构为乡村振兴注入资本动力[EB/OL].(2018-07-12)[2018-07-20].http://news.sina.com.cn/o/2018-07-12/doc-ihfefkqq9332109.shtmlChina News Network Shandong financial institutions inject capital power into rural revitalization [EB/OL].(2018-07-12)[2018-07-20].http://news.sina.com.cn/o/2018-07-12/doc-ihfefkqq9332109.shtml (in Chinese)
[2] 林杰.保险与农业信贷供求的“帕累托改进”[J].福建金融,2008,23(6):18-22Lin J.Agricultural insurance and pareto improvement of agricultural supply and demand[J].Fujian Finance,2008,23(6):18-22 (in Chinese)
[3] Binswanger H P.Empirical estimation and use of risk pDiscussion[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1982,64(2):391-393
[4] Pomareda C.An evaluation of impact of credit insurance on bank performance in Panama[J].Blatimore and London:The Johns Hopkins University Press,1986:106-114
[5] 潘明清,郑军,刘丽.农业保险与农村信贷发展:作用机制与政策建议[J].农村经济,2015,33(6):76-79Pan M Q,Zheng J,Liu L.Agricultural insurance and rural credit development:Mechanism of action and policy suggestions[J].Rural Economy,2015,33(6):76-79 (in Chinese)
[6] 刘祚祥,黄权国.信息生产能力,农业保险与农村金融市场的信贷配给:基于修正的S-W模型的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2012,28(5):53-64Liu Z X,Huang Q G.Information production capacity,agricultural insurance and credit rationing in rural financial markets:An empirical analysis based on modified S-W model[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2012,28(5):53-64 (in Chinese)
[7] Carter M R,Cheng L.The impact inter-linked index insurance and credit contracts on financial market deepening and small farm productivity[C].In:Annual Meeting of the American Applied Economics Association 2010.Pittsburgh:The American Applied Economics Association,2010(2):24-26
[8] 刘素春,智迪迪.农业保险与农业信贷耦合协调发展研究:以山东省为例[J].保险研究,2017,38(2):29-39Liu S C,Zhi D D.A research on coupling and coordinated development between agricultural insurance and agricultural credit:Take Shandong Province as an example[J].Insurance Studies,2017,38(2):29-39 (in Chinese)
[9] 方首军,黄泽颖,孙良媛.农业保险与农业信贷互动关系的理论分析与实证究:1985—2009[J].农村金融研究,2012,33(7):60-65Fang S J,Huang Z Y,Sun L Y.Theoretical analysis and empirical research on the interaction between agricultural insurance and agricultural credit:1985—2009[J].Rural Finance Research,2012,33(7):60-65 (in Chinese)
[10] 祝国平,刘吉舫.农业保险是否支持了农业信贷?:来自全国227个地级市的证据[J].农村经济,2014,32(10):77-81Zhu G P,Liu J F.Does agricultural insurance support agricultural credit?:Evidence from 227 prefecture-level cities across the country[J].Rural Economy,2014,32(10):77-81 (in Chinese)
[11] Mosley P,Krishnamurthy R.Can crop insurance work?The case of India[J].Journal of Development Studies,1995(3):428-450
[12] Miranda M J,Gonzalez-Vega C.Systemic risk index insurance and optimal management of agricultural loan portfolios in developing countries[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,2010(6):118-122
[13] 任乐,王性玉,赵辉.农户信贷可得性和最优贷款额度的理论分析与实证检验:基于农业保险抵押品替代视角[J].管理评论2017,29(6):32-42Ren L,Wang X Y,Zhao H.Research on the credit availability of farmer households and the optimal amount of credit:Based on the collateral substitution of agricultural insurance[J].Management Review,2017,29(6):32-42 (in Chinese)
[14] 牛浩,陈盛伟.农业保险与农村信贷合作产品研究[J].保险研究,2014,35(12):32-40Niu H,Chen S W.The research on agricultural insurance and rural credit cooperation product[J].Insurance Studies,2014,35(12):32-40 (in Chinese)
[15] 王戈锋.农业保险与农村信贷互动机制的对接路径研究[J].保险研究,2011,32(6):96-99Wang G F.Study on the interface between agricultural insurance and agricultural credit interaction mechanism[J].Insurance Studies,2011,32(6):96-99 (in Chinese)
[16] Wu Z H,Huang N E,Chen X Y.The multi-dimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition method[J].Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis,2009,1(3):339-372
[17] Huang N E,Shen Z,Long S R,Wu M C,Shi H H,Zheng Q,Yen N C,Tung C C,Liu H H.The empirical mode decomposition and the hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis[J].Proceedings of the Royal Society A:Mathematical,Physical and Engineering Sciences,1998,454(1971):903-995
[18] Zhang X,Lai K K,Wang S Y.A new approach for crude oil price analysis based on empirical mode decomposition[J].Energy Economics,2008,30(3):905-918
[19] 中新网.山东金融机构为乡村振兴注入资本动力[EB/OL].(2018-07-12)[2018-07-20].http://news.sina.com.cn/o/2018-07-12/doc-ihfefkqq9332109.shtmlChina News Network Shandong financial institutions inject capital power into rural revitalization [EB/OL].(2018-07-12)[2018-07-20].http://news.sina.com.cn/o/2018-07-12/doc-ihfefkqq9332109.shtml (in Chinese)