基于树木年轮的旱灾逐年趋势变化的建模分析
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摘要
传统基于树轮宽度重建气候数据的方法,忽略了早材、晚材树轮宽度的差异,导致数据重建结果存在局限性,为此提出新的基于树木年轮的旱灾逐年趋势变化建模分析方法。在科尔沁沙地采集树木年轮样、收集水文气象资料,建立科尔沁沙地树木标准年轮年表;分析年轮指数与气象因子的相关性,获取不同水文气象因子对树木生长的作用关系,根据该结果采用干旱指数重建科尔沁沙地气候数据,实现科尔沁沙地旱灾逐年趋势变化分析。实验结果表明,所提方法获取的数据重建结果真实、可靠,采用该方法可知科尔沁沙地过去321年经历了6个潮湿阶段、5个干旱阶段,科尔沁沙地蒙古栎的年轮宽度与当年最低气温存在显著的正相关关系。
Traditional methods based on tree ring width to reconstruct climate data neglect the difference of tree ring width between early wood and late wood, which leads to the limitation of data reconstruction results. Therefore, a new method of annual trend change modeling and analysis of drought based on tree ring is proposed. We collected tree ring samples and hydro-meteorological data in Horqin sandy land and established standard tree ring chronology in Horqin sandy land. By analyzing the correlation between tree ring index and meteorological factors, the relationship between different hydro-meteorological factors and tree growth is obtained, and based on this result, by using drought index to reconstruct the climate data of Horqin sandy land, we are able to realize the annual trend change analysis of drought disaster in Horqin Sandy land. The experimental results show that the data reconstructed by the proposed method are real and reliable. The method get us to know that the Horqin sandy land has experienced six wet and five drought stages in the past 321 years. The annual ring width of Quercus Mongolica in Horqin sandy land has a significant positive correlation with the lowest temperature in that year.
Traditional methods based on tree ring width to reconstruct climate data neglect the difference of tree ring width between early wood and late wood, which leads to the limitation of data reconstruction results. Therefore, a new method of annual trend change modeling and analysis of drought based on tree ring is proposed. We collected tree ring samples and hydro-meteorological data in Horqin sandy land and established standard tree ring chronology in Horqin sandy land. By analyzing the correlation between tree ring index and meteorological factors, the relationship between different hydro-meteorological factors and tree growth is obtained, and based on this result, by using drought index to reconstruct the climate data of Horqin sandy land, we are able to realize the annual trend change analysis of drought disaster in Horqin Sandy land. The experimental results show that the data reconstructed by the proposed method are real and reliable. The method get us to know that the Horqin sandy land has experienced six wet and five drought stages in the past 321 years. The annual ring width of Quercus Mongolica in Horqin sandy land has a significant positive correlation with the lowest temperature in that year.
引文
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[13] 苏金娟, 王晓春. 张广才岭北部三大硬阔树木生长-气候关系的时空变异[J]. 生态学报, 2017, 37(5):1484-1495.
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[15] 王亚军, 马玉贞, 鲁瑞洁,等. 祁连山东延余脉——兴隆山树木径向生长记录的公元1845年来夏季NDVI变化[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(4):653-663.
[2] 贾敏, 朱万泽, 王文志. 树木径向生长主要去趋势方法与误差分析[J]. 世界林业研究, 2017, 30(3):59-63.
[3] 史景宁, 于健, 周华,等. 基于R软件的树木年轮宽度测量方法[J]. 生态学杂志, 2017, 36(7):2052-2059.
[4] 刘敏, 毛子军, 厉悦,等. 不同纬度阔叶红松林红松径向生长对气候因子的响应[J]. 应用生态学报, 2016, 27(5):1341-1352.
[5] 孟盛旺, 周光, 于健,等. 利用GIS工具测定树木圆盘年轮的方法[J]. 生态学杂志, 2017, 36(6):1746-1751.
[6] 张宇波, 成丽君. 农业气象灾害等级优化预测仿真研究[J]. 计算机仿真, 2017, 34(6):440-444.
[7] 赵少军, 魏强, 徐海量,等. 树木年轮对塔里木河生态环境变迁的印证[J]. 中国沙漠, 2017, 37(3):594-600.
[8] 张宁, 刘琪璟, 孟盛旺,等. 不通过髓心的树木圆盘年轮直径测定方法[J]. 生态学杂志, 2017, 36(1):258-266.
[9] 张芸, 叶茂, 汪亮亮,等. 塔里木河源流和干流胡杨年轮生长的差异性[J]. 生态学报, 2017, 37(18):6081-6090.
[10] ZHANG R, SHANG H, YU S, et al. Tree-ring-based precipitation reconstruction in southern Kazakhstan, reveals drought variability since A.D. 1770[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2017, 37(2):741-750.
[11] 苟晓霞, 叶茂, 高生峰,等. 塔里木河中游胡杨径向生长对气候变化的响应研究[J]. 西北植物学报, 2017, 37(9):1864-1871.
[12] 常永兴, 陈振举, 张先亮,等. 气候变暖下大兴安岭落叶松径向生长对温度的响应[J]. 植物生态学报, 2017, 41(3):279-289.
[13] 苏金娟, 王晓春. 张广才岭北部三大硬阔树木生长-气候关系的时空变异[J]. 生态学报, 2017, 37(5):1484-1495.
[14] 崔诗梦, 向玮. 间伐与气候对长白落叶松树轮宽度的影响[J]. 林业科学, 2017, 53(12):1-11.
[15] 王亚军, 马玉贞, 鲁瑞洁,等. 祁连山东延余脉——兴隆山树木径向生长记录的公元1845年来夏季NDVI变化[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(4):653-663.