故障规律未知时的装备任务成功性评估方法
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摘要
针对装备故障规律不易获取以及传统任务成功性评估中未分析装备技术状态等问题,提出了一种技术状态与任务可靠度之间的转换方法。利用径向基神经网络对装备技术状态等级进行了评估,利用云模型对装备的任务可靠度进行了评估。以此为基础,结合维修时间约束条件评估了故障规律未知时的装备任务成功性。
In order to solve the problems that the failure distribution is hard to be known and the technical condition is ignored when evaluating the equipment's dependability,a method which can exchange the technical condition with mission reliability is proposed.As the technical condition is recognized by using the method of radial basis function neural network,the mission reliability is evaluated by using the cloudy model.After all of this,equipment's dependability with an unknown failure distribution is evaluated within a steady time constraint.
In order to solve the problems that the failure distribution is hard to be known and the technical condition is ignored when evaluating the equipment's dependability,a method which can exchange the technical condition with mission reliability is proposed.As the technical condition is recognized by using the method of radial basis function neural network,the mission reliability is evaluated by using the cloudy model.After all of this,equipment's dependability with an unknown failure distribution is evaluated within a steady time constraint.
引文
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[21]曲广龙,杨洪耕.基于梯形云模型的电能质量数据关联性挖掘方法[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(7):145-149.QU G L,YANG H G.A correlation mining method for power quality data based on trapezoidal cloud model[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(7):145-149.
[22]杜湘瑜,尹全军,黄柯棣,等.基于云模型的定性定量转换方法及其应用[J].系统工程与电子技术,2008,30(4):772-776.DU X Y,YIN Q J,HUANG K L,et al.Transformation between qualitative variables and quantity based on cloud models and its application[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2008,30(4):772-776.
[2]刘芳,赵建印,郭波.基于EOOPN的作战单元任务成功性评估仿真模型[J].兵工学报,2007,28(4):481-486.LIU F,ZHAO J J,GUO B.Mission success evaluation model based on EOOPN for the division-brigade combat units[J].Acta Armamentarii,2007,28(4):481-486.
[3]陈砚桥,金家善,黄政.基于蒙特卡罗方法的舰船装备系统任务成功概率模型[J].船海工程,2012,41(1):103-105.CHEN J Q,JIN J S,HUANG Z.A mission completion success probability model for equipment system of warship based on monte carlo method[J].Ship&Ocean Engineering,2012,41(1):103-105.
[4]王睿,李庆民,阮旻智,等.基于作战单元任务成功性的可修复备件优化[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2012,38(8):1040-1045.WANG R,LI Q M,RUAN M Z,et al.Optimization of repairable spare parts based on combat unit mission success[J].Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2012,38(8):1040-1045.
[5]李磊,钱彦岭,杨拥民,等.基于概率模型检验的复杂武器系统任务可靠性评估方法研究[J].机械工程学报,2011,47(24):171-176.LI L,QIAN Y L,YANG Y M,et al.Evaluating mission reliability for complex weapon systems with probabilistic model checking[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2011,47(24):171-176.
[6]董岳,于永利,张柳,等.复杂系统使用任务完成概率模型[J].系统工程与电子技术,2011,33(1):94-97.DONG Y,YU Y L,ZHANG L,et al.Usage mission completion probability model for complex systems[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2011,33(1):94-97.
[7]ALAM M,SONG M,STEVEN L,et al.Reliability analysis of phased-mission systems:apractical approach[C]∥Proc.of the IEEE Computer Society Reliability and Maintainability Symposium,2006:551-558.
[8]刘震宇,马小兵,洪东跑,等.基于飞行剖面的作战飞机任务可靠性评估方法[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2012,38(1):59-63.LIU Z Y,MA X B,HONG D P,et al.Mission reliability assessment for battle-plane based on flight profile[J].Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2012,38(1):59-63.
[9]TANG Z H,DUGAN J B.BDD based reliability analysis of phased-mission systems with multimode failures[J].IEEE Trans.on Reliability,2006,55(2):350-360.
[10]FUNAKI K,YOSHIMOTO K.Distribution of total uptime during agiven time interval[J].IEEE Trans.on Reliability,1994,43(3):489-492.
[11]张建军.作战单元维修保障能力评估与优化技术研究[D].长沙:国防科技大学,2008.ZHANG J J.Study on combat unit maintenance capability evaluation and optimization technology[D].Changsha:National University of Defense Technology,2008.
[12]徐宗昌.保障性工程[M].北京:兵器工业出版社,2002.XU Z C.Supportability engineering[M].Beijing:Publishing House of Ordnance Industry,2002.
[13]陈果,杨虞微.航空发动机复杂磨损趋势的神经网络多变量预测模型[J].中国机械工程,2007,18(1):70-74.CHEN G,YANG Y W.Artificial neural network multi-variable forecasting model of aero-engine complex wear trend[J].China Mechanical Engineering,2007,18(1):70-74.
[14]吕永乐,郎荣玲,路辉,等.航空发动机性能参数联合RBFPN和FAR预测[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2010,36(2):131-134.LV Y L,LANG R L,LU H,et al.Prediction of aero engine’s performance parameter combining RBFPN and FAR[J].Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2010,36(2):131-134.
[15]张迎,杨淑莹,吴涛.一种时间序列优化的粒子滤波算法[J].天津理工大学学报,2010,26(5):1-5.ZHANG Y,YANG S Y,WU T.Time series optimized particle filter algorithm[J].Journal of Tianjin University of Technology,2010,26(5):1-5.
[16]HAGAN M T,DEMUTH H B,BEALE M.Neural network design[M].America:PWS Publishing Company,2002:197-222.
[17]CATELANI M,PORT A.Fault diagnosis of electronic analog circuits using a radial basis function network classifier[J].Measurement,2000,28(3):147-158.
[18]邸凯昌,李德毅,李德仁.理论及其在空间数据发掘和知识发现中的应用[J].中国图象图形学报,1999,4(11):930-935.DI K C,LI D Y,LI D R.Cloud theory and its applications in spatial data mining and knowledge discovery[J].Journal of Image and Graphics,1999,4(11):930-935.
[19]李德毅,孟海军,史雪梅.隶属云和隶属云发生器[J].计算机研究与发展,1995,2(6):16-21.LI D Y,MENG H J,SHI X M.Subject cloud and subject cloud generator[J].Computer Research&Development,1995,2(6):16-21.
[20]刘常星,李德毅,潘莉莉.基于云模型的不确定性知识表示[J].计算机工程与应用,2004,40(2):32-35.LIU C X,LI D Y,PAN L L.Uncertain knowledge representation based on cloud model[J].Computer Engineering and Applications,2004,40(2):32-35.
[21]曲广龙,杨洪耕.基于梯形云模型的电能质量数据关联性挖掘方法[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(7):145-149.QU G L,YANG H G.A correlation mining method for power quality data based on trapezoidal cloud model[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(7):145-149.
[22]杜湘瑜,尹全军,黄柯棣,等.基于云模型的定性定量转换方法及其应用[J].系统工程与电子技术,2008,30(4):772-776.DU X Y,YIN Q J,HUANG K L,et al.Transformation between qualitative variables and quantity based on cloud models and its application[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2008,30(4):772-776.