精准扶贫可以提升农村贫困户可持续生计吗?——基于陕西省70个县(区)的调查
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摘要
精准扶贫实施效果评估不仅是检验"真扶贫"和"扶真贫"的重要机制,也是有效推进精准扶贫工作的重要举措。本文从能力视角出发,将"可持续生计"作为精准扶贫实施效果评估的标准,将其解析为发展能力、经济能力和社交能力三部分,构建了包含3个一级指标、5个二级指标、14个三级指标以及26个四级指标的评价指标体系。基于本课题组在陕西省70个县(区)实地调研数据,本文运用TOPSIS对贫困户可持续生计进行量化并从贫困户整体和类型出发,运用方差分析探讨精准扶贫的实施效果。结果显示:第一,贫困户可持续生计整体处于中等偏下的水平,且一般贫困户、低保户和五保户可持续生计水平依次降低,体现了精准扶贫中对贫困户的精准识别;第二,精准扶贫对于贫困户可持续生计的提升不显著,但对经济能力和社交能力有显著的提升作用;第三,不同的精准扶贫措施对于不同贫困户可持续生计的提升作用不同,扶贫搬迁对不同类型贫困户提升可持续生计均不显著;第四,精准扶贫参与度对于可持续生计的提升不显著,却显著提高了不同类型贫困户的社交能力。最后提出了增强贫困户可持续生计的对策建议。
The evaluation of the implementation effect of precision poverty alleviation is not only an important mechanism for testing "true poverty alleviation"and "pro-poor poverty alleviation",it is of great significance for effectively promoting accurate poverty alleviation work. Based on the perspectives of the poor households,this study uses"sustainable livelihoods"as the standard of precision poverty alleviation assessment and analyzes them into three parts: development ability,economic ability and social ability. Based on the existing research,It is refined into an index system with 3 first-level indicators,5 second-level indicators,14 third-level indicators and 26 fourth-level indicators. Secondly,on the basis of the field survey data from 70 counties( districts) in Shaanxi Province,this project uses TOPSIS for quantitative assessment. Then,from the perspective of the overall and the type of poor households,using ANOVA to assess the effect of precise poverty alleviation. The results show that: firstly,the overall livelihoods of poor households are generally below the middle level,and the sustainable livelihoods of ordinary poor households,low-income families and five-underloved households are successively lower,further confirming that the poor livelihoods are realized in the process of precision poverty alleviation Accurately identify; Second,the precise poverty alleviation for sustainable development of poor households did not increase significantly,but for the poor economic and social skills significantly enhance the role. Third,different measures of precision poverty alleviation have different effects on sustainable livelihoods of different poor households. However,poverty alleviation and relocation have no significant effect on promoting sustainable livelihood for different types of poor households. Fourth,precise poverty alleviation participation is not significant for sustainable livelihoods,but significantly improves the social ability of different types of poor households. Finally,based on the existing research,suggestions are made to improve the sustainable livelihoods of poor households.
The evaluation of the implementation effect of precision poverty alleviation is not only an important mechanism for testing "true poverty alleviation"and "pro-poor poverty alleviation",it is of great significance for effectively promoting accurate poverty alleviation work. Based on the perspectives of the poor households,this study uses"sustainable livelihoods"as the standard of precision poverty alleviation assessment and analyzes them into three parts: development ability,economic ability and social ability. Based on the existing research,It is refined into an index system with 3 first-level indicators,5 second-level indicators,14 third-level indicators and 26 fourth-level indicators. Secondly,on the basis of the field survey data from 70 counties( districts) in Shaanxi Province,this project uses TOPSIS for quantitative assessment. Then,from the perspective of the overall and the type of poor households,using ANOVA to assess the effect of precise poverty alleviation. The results show that: firstly,the overall livelihoods of poor households are generally below the middle level,and the sustainable livelihoods of ordinary poor households,low-income families and five-underloved households are successively lower,further confirming that the poor livelihoods are realized in the process of precision poverty alleviation Accurately identify; Second,the precise poverty alleviation for sustainable development of poor households did not increase significantly,but for the poor economic and social skills significantly enhance the role. Third,different measures of precision poverty alleviation have different effects on sustainable livelihoods of different poor households. However,poverty alleviation and relocation have no significant effect on promoting sustainable livelihood for different types of poor households. Fourth,precise poverty alleviation participation is not significant for sustainable livelihoods,but significantly improves the social ability of different types of poor households. Finally,based on the existing research,suggestions are made to improve the sustainable livelihoods of poor households.
引文
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8.P.Mosley.Microfinance and Poverty in Bolivia.The Journal of Development Studies,2000,37(4):101~132
9.Agbola F W,Acupan A,Mahmood A.Does microfinance reduce poverty?New evidence from Northeastern Mindanao,the Philippines.Journal of Rural Studies,2017,50:159~171
10.Pitt M M,Khandker S R.Household and intrahousehold impact of the Grameen Bank and similar targeted credit programs in Bangladesh..Washington D,1996
11.Pin M M,Khandker S R,Mckernan S M,et al.Credit programs for the poor and reproductive behavior in low-income countries:Are the reported causal relationships the result of heterogeneity bias?Demography,1999,36(1):1
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14.孟志华,李晓冬.精准扶贫绩效的第三方评估:理论溯源、作用机理与优化路径.当代经济管理,2018(3):1~14
15.邓维杰.精准扶贫的难点,对策与路径选择.农村经济,2014(6):78~81
16.汪三贵,郭子豪.论中国的精准扶贫.贵州社会科学,2015(5):147~150
17.赵武,王姣玥.新常态下“精准扶贫”的包容性创新机制研究.中国人口资源与环境,2015(S2):170~173
18.左停,杨雨鑫,钟玲.精准扶贫:技术靶向、理论解析和现实挑战.贵州社会科学,2015(8):156~162
19.沈茂英.四川藏区精准扶贫面临的多维约束与化解策略.农村经济,2015(6):62~66
20.韩斌.推进集中连片特困地区精准扶贫初析---以滇黔桂石漠化片区为例.学术探索,2015(6):73~77
21.郑瑞强,曹国庆.基于大数据思维的精准扶贫机制研究.贵州社会科学,2015(8):163~168
22.翁伯琦,黄颖,王义祥等.以科技兴农推动精准扶贫战略实施的对策思考---以福建省建宁县为例.中国人口·资源与环境,2015(S2)
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24.刘彦随,周扬,刘继来.中国农村贫困化地域分异特征及其精准扶贫策略.中国科学院院刊,2016(3):269~278
25.李裕瑞,曹智,郑小玉等.我国实施精准扶贫的区域模式与可持续途径.中国科学院院刊,2016,31(3):279~288
26.刘慧.实施精准扶贫与区域协调发展.中国科学院院刊,2016(3):320~327
27.林文曼.海南农村精准扶贫项目绩效评估实证研究.中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(4):102~107
28.黄萍,黄万华.能力扶贫:农村财政扶贫政策新视角.内蒙古社会科学(汉文版),2003,24(6):118~120
29.杨龙,汪三贵.贫困地区农户的多维贫困测量与分解---基于2010年中国农村贫困监测的农户数据.人口学刊,2015,37(2)
30.王士心.中国城乡贫困人口的可持续生计问题研究.西南财经大学学位论文,2011
31.中国社会科学院社会政策研究中心课题组.失地农民“生计可持续”对策.科学咨询,2005(3):20~22
32.韦小青.论高校贫困学生的“教育支持”.人才开发,2009(4):13~15
33.陈全功,程蹊.子女教育、代际支持与家庭贫困的变动---基于14省区农村住户调查数据的分析.华中科技大学学报社会科学版,2007,21(4):86~90
34.唐玉凤,黄如兰,吴娜.我国农村弱势群体非农就业的现状、问题与对策---以湖南省16个贫困县(市)为例.经济地理,2008(6):973~977
35.林辰乐,吕翔涛.影响城市低保受助者就业的政策因素分析---就业的双项逻辑回归模型及访谈实证研究.中国软科学,2012(8):23~34
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38.张跃平,周基农,刘荆敏.民族地区农户小额信贷的产生理论与成效分析.中南民族大学学报(人文社会科学版),2005(4):119~122
39.小额信贷管理体制课题组.关于改进和完善政府实施小额信贷扶贫管理体制的研究报告.当代中国史研究,2001,8(5):116~126
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41.刘燕丽,左停,齐顾波.小额信贷缓和农户脆弱性的实证研究.农村经济,2008(4):71~74
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*结合政府政策文件和实际调研资料了解,本文的样本覆盖地区——陕西省,目前已将低保户全部作为精准扶贫对象。主要依据为中共陕西省委陕西省人民政府关于贯彻落实《中共中央国务院关于打赢脱贫攻坚战的决定》的实施意见(陕发[2015]20号),第十条提出:从2016年开始实行农村低保标准与扶贫标准的“两线合一”,意味着农村低保户全部被纳入为扶贫对象;同时,县级政府已有效贯彻落实省级政府文件精神,如商南县社会救助保障兜底三年规划中,明确提出将“低保、五保”作为精准扶贫的对象。与此同时,我们在实地调研过程中发现,低保户全部都建档立卡,进一步佐证了陕西省的低保户全部是精准扶贫的对象
*由于可持续生计能力的各个指标具有不同的单位和不同的变异程度,为了消除量纲影响和变量自身变异大小和数值大小的影响,故将数据标准化
2.Sen,Amartya.Choice,welfare and measurement.Harvard University Press,1997
3.Carney D.Sustainable rural livelihoods:what contribution can we make?Universidad De Chile,1998
4.Ziderman A.Alternative Objectives of National Student Loan Schemes:Implications for Design,Evaluation and Policy.Peking University Education Review,2004,11(11):37~47
5.Johanson,Richard K.,and Arvil V.Adams.Skills development in sub-Saharan Africa.World Bank Publications,2004,177
6.Sicat L V.Poverty Alleviation through Skills Training Provided by State Universities and Colleges(SUCs)to their Communities:An Evaluation.Iamure International Journal of Social Sciences,2013,6(1)
7.Yang B,Jialali P,Wei X.Microfinance in China's Poor Area and Its Impact to Loan Type-Evidence from Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region//International Conference on Business Intelligence and Financial Engineering.IEEE,2011:486~490
8.P.Mosley.Microfinance and Poverty in Bolivia.The Journal of Development Studies,2000,37(4):101~132
9.Agbola F W,Acupan A,Mahmood A.Does microfinance reduce poverty?New evidence from Northeastern Mindanao,the Philippines.Journal of Rural Studies,2017,50:159~171
10.Pitt M M,Khandker S R.Household and intrahousehold impact of the Grameen Bank and similar targeted credit programs in Bangladesh..Washington D,1996
11.Pin M M,Khandker S R,Mckernan S M,et al.Credit programs for the poor and reproductive behavior in low-income countries:Are the reported causal relationships the result of heterogeneity bias?Demography,1999,36(1):1
12.Li X,Gan C,Hu B.Accessibility to microcredit by Chinese rural households.Journal of Asian Economics,2011,22(3):235~246
13.杨帆,章晓懿.可行能力方法视阈下的精准扶贫:国际实践及对本土政策的启示.上海交通大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2016(6):23~30
14.孟志华,李晓冬.精准扶贫绩效的第三方评估:理论溯源、作用机理与优化路径.当代经济管理,2018(3):1~14
15.邓维杰.精准扶贫的难点,对策与路径选择.农村经济,2014(6):78~81
16.汪三贵,郭子豪.论中国的精准扶贫.贵州社会科学,2015(5):147~150
17.赵武,王姣玥.新常态下“精准扶贫”的包容性创新机制研究.中国人口资源与环境,2015(S2):170~173
18.左停,杨雨鑫,钟玲.精准扶贫:技术靶向、理论解析和现实挑战.贵州社会科学,2015(8):156~162
19.沈茂英.四川藏区精准扶贫面临的多维约束与化解策略.农村经济,2015(6):62~66
20.韩斌.推进集中连片特困地区精准扶贫初析---以滇黔桂石漠化片区为例.学术探索,2015(6):73~77
21.郑瑞强,曹国庆.基于大数据思维的精准扶贫机制研究.贵州社会科学,2015(8):163~168
22.翁伯琦,黄颖,王义祥等.以科技兴农推动精准扶贫战略实施的对策思考---以福建省建宁县为例.中国人口·资源与环境,2015(S2)
23.杨园园,刘彦随,张紫雯.基于典型调查的精准扶贫政策创新及建议.中国科学院院刊,2016(3):337~345
24.刘彦随,周扬,刘继来.中国农村贫困化地域分异特征及其精准扶贫策略.中国科学院院刊,2016(3):269~278
25.李裕瑞,曹智,郑小玉等.我国实施精准扶贫的区域模式与可持续途径.中国科学院院刊,2016,31(3):279~288
26.刘慧.实施精准扶贫与区域协调发展.中国科学院院刊,2016(3):320~327
27.林文曼.海南农村精准扶贫项目绩效评估实证研究.中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(4):102~107
28.黄萍,黄万华.能力扶贫:农村财政扶贫政策新视角.内蒙古社会科学(汉文版),2003,24(6):118~120
29.杨龙,汪三贵.贫困地区农户的多维贫困测量与分解---基于2010年中国农村贫困监测的农户数据.人口学刊,2015,37(2)
30.王士心.中国城乡贫困人口的可持续生计问题研究.西南财经大学学位论文,2011
31.中国社会科学院社会政策研究中心课题组.失地农民“生计可持续”对策.科学咨询,2005(3):20~22
32.韦小青.论高校贫困学生的“教育支持”.人才开发,2009(4):13~15
33.陈全功,程蹊.子女教育、代际支持与家庭贫困的变动---基于14省区农村住户调查数据的分析.华中科技大学学报社会科学版,2007,21(4):86~90
34.唐玉凤,黄如兰,吴娜.我国农村弱势群体非农就业的现状、问题与对策---以湖南省16个贫困县(市)为例.经济地理,2008(6):973~977
35.林辰乐,吕翔涛.影响城市低保受助者就业的政策因素分析---就业的双项逻辑回归模型及访谈实证研究.中国软科学,2012(8):23~34
36.李朝林.安徽农村贫困地区人力资本生产与反贫困.经济社会体制比较,2005(6):116~119
37.董志勇,黄迈,刘文忻.农村小额信贷的激励理论述评.经济理论与经济管理,2008,V(10):27~31
38.张跃平,周基农,刘荆敏.民族地区农户小额信贷的产生理论与成效分析.中南民族大学学报(人文社会科学版),2005(4):119~122
39.小额信贷管理体制课题组.关于改进和完善政府实施小额信贷扶贫管理体制的研究报告.当代中国史研究,2001,8(5):116~126
40.张立军,湛泳.金融发展与降低贫困---基于中国1994-2004年小额信贷的分析.当代经济科学,2006,28(6):36~42
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*结合政府政策文件和实际调研资料了解,本文的样本覆盖地区——陕西省,目前已将低保户全部作为精准扶贫对象。主要依据为中共陕西省委陕西省人民政府关于贯彻落实《中共中央国务院关于打赢脱贫攻坚战的决定》的实施意见(陕发[2015]20号),第十条提出:从2016年开始实行农村低保标准与扶贫标准的“两线合一”,意味着农村低保户全部被纳入为扶贫对象;同时,县级政府已有效贯彻落实省级政府文件精神,如商南县社会救助保障兜底三年规划中,明确提出将“低保、五保”作为精准扶贫的对象。与此同时,我们在实地调研过程中发现,低保户全部都建档立卡,进一步佐证了陕西省的低保户全部是精准扶贫的对象
*由于可持续生计能力的各个指标具有不同的单位和不同的变异程度,为了消除量纲影响和变量自身变异大小和数值大小的影响,故将数据标准化