考虑权重乘子的核心制造商风险动态评估研究——基于供应链视角
|
摘要
结合FMECA的风险诊断方法、C-POWA算子在区间数信息集结的算法步骤以及权重乘子在动态评价的应用,提出制造业供应链核心制造商风险动态评估模型。以单一供应商、单一制造商与单一分销商组成的三级供应链运作模型为基础,应用流程图法分析制造业供应链中核心制造商运作环节所面临的风险因素,应用FMECA分析法诊断风险因素属性指标值大小,依据C-POWA算子在多序列属性区间数信息集结的算法步骤对属性区间指标值进行集结,应用权重乘子确定评估指标动态权重。最后,以实际算例对上述过程进行验算分析,以此说明该评估模型的可行性与有效性。
Combining the risk diagnosis method of FMECA analysis, the algorithm 步骤s of the information accumulation in interval number in C-POWA operator, and the application of weight multiplier in dynamic evaluation, this paper puts forward the dynamic risk assessment model of core manufacturer of manufacturing supply chain. Based on the three-level supply chain operation model consisting of a single supplier, a single manufacturer, and a single distributor, the application flow chart method is used to analyze the risk factors the core manufacturer's operation faces in the manufacturing supply chain. This paper applies FMECA analysis to diagnose the value of the risk factor attribute index, according to the features of C-POWA operator gathering the attribute interval index value in the algorithm 步骤 of the multi-sequence attribute interval number information aggregation, and applies the weight multiplier to determine the dynamic weight of the evaluation index. Finally, the calculation and analysis of the above process are carried out with practical examples to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the evaluation model.
Combining the risk diagnosis method of FMECA analysis, the algorithm 步骤s of the information accumulation in interval number in C-POWA operator, and the application of weight multiplier in dynamic evaluation, this paper puts forward the dynamic risk assessment model of core manufacturer of manufacturing supply chain. Based on the three-level supply chain operation model consisting of a single supplier, a single manufacturer, and a single distributor, the application flow chart method is used to analyze the risk factors the core manufacturer's operation faces in the manufacturing supply chain. This paper applies FMECA analysis to diagnose the value of the risk factor attribute index, according to the features of C-POWA operator gathering the attribute interval index value in the algorithm 步骤 of the multi-sequence attribute interval number information aggregation, and applies the weight multiplier to determine the dynamic weight of the evaluation index. Finally, the calculation and analysis of the above process are carried out with practical examples to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the evaluation model.
引文
[1]朱高峰,王迪.当前中国制造业发展情况分析与展望:基于制造强国评价指标体系[J].管理工程学报,2017,31(4):1-7.
[2]周晓红.论中国制造业的地位和出路[J]. 江苏行政学院学报, 2016(2):56-62.
[3]张学龙,张一纯. 广西航空物流供应链风险识别与评估方法[J].社会科学家,2017(2):79-84.
[4]夏德,王林. 供应链风险识别与风险管理杠杆选择[J].企业经济,2012,31(7):24-27.
[5]郭迎春. 基于系统分析的实用型供应链风险管理框架[J].科技管理研究,2011,31(13):183-186.
[6]桑圣举,王炬香,杨阳. 供应链风险管理的研究与发展[J]. 工业技术经济,2006,25(9):116-120.
[7]樊星,邵举平,孙延安. 基于模糊理论的跨国农产品供应链风险识别与评估[J].科技管理研究,2016,36(6):210-215.
[8]彭红军,王苗苗. 具有双向生态性的林浆纸供应链风险识别及防范对策研究[J].林业经济,2016,38(10):33-37.
[9]徐绪松,曾学工,郑小京. 供应链风险管理研究综述:风险识别[J].技术经济,2013,32(5):78-86,120
[10]崔彩云,王建平.项目导向型供应链风险识别方法探讨[J].商业时代,2013(21):44-45.
[11]李守泽,余建军,孙树栋.供应链失效风险识别与评估[J].计算机应用研究,2010,27(12):4568-4570.
[12]陈国华,张根保,任显林,等. 基于故障树分析法的供应链可靠性诊断方法及仿真研究[J].计算机集成制造系统,2009,15(10):2034-2038,2049.
[13]黄洪,任卫红,余达太,等. 基于故障树的等级测评专家系统模型研究[J].计算机应用研究,2010,27(1):204-208,211.
[14]颜波,石平,丁德龙.物联网环境下的农产品供应链风险评估与控制[J].管理工程学报,2014,28(3):196-202,173.
[15]王文婕. 基于OWA算子的供应链风险评估方法[J].物流技术,2011,30(7):110-113.
[16]雷勋平.我国汽车制造业供应链风险评价实证研究:基于熵权可拓决策模型的分析[J].计算机工程与应用,2015,51(12):264-270.
[17]舒彤,葛佳丽,陈收. 基于支持向量机的供应链风险评估研究[J].经济经纬,2014,31(1):130-135.
[18]顾玉磊,张圣忠.吴群琪. 基于成员企业偏好的供应链风险评估模型[J].科技管理研究,2013,33(2):195-199.
[19]吴继贵,叶阿忠.FMCG供应链风险综合评价研究:以中国乳制品供应链为例[J].科技管理研究,2014,34(22):43-49.
[20]周业付,罗晰. 农产品供应链风险识别和监管:以江西省禽类行业为例[J].华东经济管理,2016,30(110):33-37.
[21]王翯华,朱建军,张明.基于灰关联寻优的协同研制供应链风险评估[J].科技管理研究,2017,37(11):65-70.
[22]NITESHKHILWANI M K,SABUNCUOGLU T I. Hybrid Petri-nets for modeling and performance evaluation of supply chains[J]. International Journal of Production Research, 2011,49(15):4627-4656.
[23]ATANUCHAUDHURI, MOHANTY B K, SINGH K. Supply chain risk assessment during new product development: a group decision making approach using numeric and linguistic data[J]. International Journal of Production Research,2013,51(10):2790-2804.
[24]AVINASHSAMVEDI, JAIN V, CHAN F T S. Quantifying risks in a supply chain through integration of fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS[J]. International Journal of Production Research,2013,51(8):2433-2442.
[25]DONG Q,COOPER O. An orders-of-magnitude AHP supply chain risk assessment framework[J]. International Journal of Production Economics,2016(182):144-156.
[26]YUN W,HUIXIA H. Research on the supply chain risk assessment of the fresh agricultural products based on the improved toptsis algorithm[J]. Chemical Engineering Transactions, 2016(51):445-450.
[27]BLACKHURST J,RUNGTUSANATHAM M J,SCHEIBE K, et al. Supply chain vulnerability assessment: a network based visualization and clustering analysis approach[J]. Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management,2017,24(1):21-30.
[28]赵辉,王雪青.大型基础设施项目融资风险动态评价体系研究[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2017,19(1):83-90,98.
[29]牛似虎,周宝刚,庞浩.供应链金融信用风险动态评价研究[J].经济研究参考,2015(28):47-53.
[30]胡翩,刘书海,王德国,等.基于变权综合理论的天然气管道动态风险评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2012,22(7):82-88.
[31]李美娟,李晓轩,徐林明.基于改进理想解法的动态评价方法研究[J].系统科学与数学,2016,36(10):1659-1669.
[32]赵莉,王海滋,许娜.基于动态权重系数修订的政府采购供应商评价方法[J].统计与决策,2016(2):49-52.
[33]刘克会,胡玉生,冉伦,等.燃气管线运行的动态风险评价[J].系统科学与数学,2017,37(8):1828-1839.
[34]舒予,张黎俐.时序动态视角下的学术影响力评价方法及实证研究[J].现代情报,2017,37(11):74-80,86.
[35]李宜城,薛亚东,李彦杰.一种基于动态权重的施工安全风险评估新方法[J].地下空间与工程学报,2017,13(S1):209-215.
[36]易平涛,周义,郭亚军,等.一种体现发展趋势的动态综合评价方法[J].运筹与管理,2016,25(6):175-180.
[37]蔡久顺,张执国,师鹏,等. 基于直觉模糊多属性群决策的风险排序方法[J].工程数学学报,2015,32(5):650-658.
[38]陈卫东,冉臣龙,郑启辉,等. 基于FFMECA的任务可靠性综合评价方法[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2016,42(9):1819-1826.
[39]孙曙光,申桂香,张英芝,等. 基于ISM与FMECA的加工中心故障分析[J].湖南大学学报(自然科学版),2015,42(8):47-52.
[40]MERIGóJ M.New extensions to the OWA operator and its application in business decision making[D].Ph D Thesis,Barcelona: Department of Business Administration,University of Barcelona,2008.
[41]YAGER R R.OWA aggregation over a continuous interval argument with applications to decision making[J].IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man,and Cybernetics,Part B,2004(34): 1952-1963.
[42]卢郡,周礼刚,陈华友. 基于C-POWA算子的银行员工绩效评价方法[J].运筹与管理,2016,25(4):227-233.
[43]陈双双,赵永乐,王芳.江苏省环境竞争力时空演变研究:基于静态和动态双重评价分析[J].华东经济管理,2017,31(9):23-29.
[44]杨光. 电力设备制造企业供应链绩效评价体系及模型研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2016.
1)C-POWA算法中对区间数进行信息集结的算法步骤
2)定义1引自文献[40]
3)定义2引自文献[41]
4)定义2引自文献[42]
[2]周晓红.论中国制造业的地位和出路[J]. 江苏行政学院学报, 2016(2):56-62.
[3]张学龙,张一纯. 广西航空物流供应链风险识别与评估方法[J].社会科学家,2017(2):79-84.
[4]夏德,王林. 供应链风险识别与风险管理杠杆选择[J].企业经济,2012,31(7):24-27.
[5]郭迎春. 基于系统分析的实用型供应链风险管理框架[J].科技管理研究,2011,31(13):183-186.
[6]桑圣举,王炬香,杨阳. 供应链风险管理的研究与发展[J]. 工业技术经济,2006,25(9):116-120.
[7]樊星,邵举平,孙延安. 基于模糊理论的跨国农产品供应链风险识别与评估[J].科技管理研究,2016,36(6):210-215.
[8]彭红军,王苗苗. 具有双向生态性的林浆纸供应链风险识别及防范对策研究[J].林业经济,2016,38(10):33-37.
[9]徐绪松,曾学工,郑小京. 供应链风险管理研究综述:风险识别[J].技术经济,2013,32(5):78-86,120
[10]崔彩云,王建平.项目导向型供应链风险识别方法探讨[J].商业时代,2013(21):44-45.
[11]李守泽,余建军,孙树栋.供应链失效风险识别与评估[J].计算机应用研究,2010,27(12):4568-4570.
[12]陈国华,张根保,任显林,等. 基于故障树分析法的供应链可靠性诊断方法及仿真研究[J].计算机集成制造系统,2009,15(10):2034-2038,2049.
[13]黄洪,任卫红,余达太,等. 基于故障树的等级测评专家系统模型研究[J].计算机应用研究,2010,27(1):204-208,211.
[14]颜波,石平,丁德龙.物联网环境下的农产品供应链风险评估与控制[J].管理工程学报,2014,28(3):196-202,173.
[15]王文婕. 基于OWA算子的供应链风险评估方法[J].物流技术,2011,30(7):110-113.
[16]雷勋平.我国汽车制造业供应链风险评价实证研究:基于熵权可拓决策模型的分析[J].计算机工程与应用,2015,51(12):264-270.
[17]舒彤,葛佳丽,陈收. 基于支持向量机的供应链风险评估研究[J].经济经纬,2014,31(1):130-135.
[18]顾玉磊,张圣忠.吴群琪. 基于成员企业偏好的供应链风险评估模型[J].科技管理研究,2013,33(2):195-199.
[19]吴继贵,叶阿忠.FMCG供应链风险综合评价研究:以中国乳制品供应链为例[J].科技管理研究,2014,34(22):43-49.
[20]周业付,罗晰. 农产品供应链风险识别和监管:以江西省禽类行业为例[J].华东经济管理,2016,30(110):33-37.
[21]王翯华,朱建军,张明.基于灰关联寻优的协同研制供应链风险评估[J].科技管理研究,2017,37(11):65-70.
[22]NITESHKHILWANI M K,SABUNCUOGLU T I. Hybrid Petri-nets for modeling and performance evaluation of supply chains[J]. International Journal of Production Research, 2011,49(15):4627-4656.
[23]ATANUCHAUDHURI, MOHANTY B K, SINGH K. Supply chain risk assessment during new product development: a group decision making approach using numeric and linguistic data[J]. International Journal of Production Research,2013,51(10):2790-2804.
[24]AVINASHSAMVEDI, JAIN V, CHAN F T S. Quantifying risks in a supply chain through integration of fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS[J]. International Journal of Production Research,2013,51(8):2433-2442.
[25]DONG Q,COOPER O. An orders-of-magnitude AHP supply chain risk assessment framework[J]. International Journal of Production Economics,2016(182):144-156.
[26]YUN W,HUIXIA H. Research on the supply chain risk assessment of the fresh agricultural products based on the improved toptsis algorithm[J]. Chemical Engineering Transactions, 2016(51):445-450.
[27]BLACKHURST J,RUNGTUSANATHAM M J,SCHEIBE K, et al. Supply chain vulnerability assessment: a network based visualization and clustering analysis approach[J]. Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management,2017,24(1):21-30.
[28]赵辉,王雪青.大型基础设施项目融资风险动态评价体系研究[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2017,19(1):83-90,98.
[29]牛似虎,周宝刚,庞浩.供应链金融信用风险动态评价研究[J].经济研究参考,2015(28):47-53.
[30]胡翩,刘书海,王德国,等.基于变权综合理论的天然气管道动态风险评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2012,22(7):82-88.
[31]李美娟,李晓轩,徐林明.基于改进理想解法的动态评价方法研究[J].系统科学与数学,2016,36(10):1659-1669.
[32]赵莉,王海滋,许娜.基于动态权重系数修订的政府采购供应商评价方法[J].统计与决策,2016(2):49-52.
[33]刘克会,胡玉生,冉伦,等.燃气管线运行的动态风险评价[J].系统科学与数学,2017,37(8):1828-1839.
[34]舒予,张黎俐.时序动态视角下的学术影响力评价方法及实证研究[J].现代情报,2017,37(11):74-80,86.
[35]李宜城,薛亚东,李彦杰.一种基于动态权重的施工安全风险评估新方法[J].地下空间与工程学报,2017,13(S1):209-215.
[36]易平涛,周义,郭亚军,等.一种体现发展趋势的动态综合评价方法[J].运筹与管理,2016,25(6):175-180.
[37]蔡久顺,张执国,师鹏,等. 基于直觉模糊多属性群决策的风险排序方法[J].工程数学学报,2015,32(5):650-658.
[38]陈卫东,冉臣龙,郑启辉,等. 基于FFMECA的任务可靠性综合评价方法[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2016,42(9):1819-1826.
[39]孙曙光,申桂香,张英芝,等. 基于ISM与FMECA的加工中心故障分析[J].湖南大学学报(自然科学版),2015,42(8):47-52.
[40]MERIGóJ M.New extensions to the OWA operator and its application in business decision making[D].Ph D Thesis,Barcelona: Department of Business Administration,University of Barcelona,2008.
[41]YAGER R R.OWA aggregation over a continuous interval argument with applications to decision making[J].IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man,and Cybernetics,Part B,2004(34): 1952-1963.
[42]卢郡,周礼刚,陈华友. 基于C-POWA算子的银行员工绩效评价方法[J].运筹与管理,2016,25(4):227-233.
[43]陈双双,赵永乐,王芳.江苏省环境竞争力时空演变研究:基于静态和动态双重评价分析[J].华东经济管理,2017,31(9):23-29.
[44]杨光. 电力设备制造企业供应链绩效评价体系及模型研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2016.
1)C-POWA算法中对区间数进行信息集结的算法步骤
2)定义1引自文献[40]
3)定义2引自文献[41]
4)定义2引自文献[42]