市域尺度货物运输碳排放时空变化及因素分析
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摘要
针对货物运输导致碳排放成为温室气体主要来源之一的问题,该文综合货物运输车辆的微观温室气体排放及时空变化,从市域尺度分析货物运输碳排放的时空变化规律。利用微观排放模型计算了2000年、2005年、2010年和2015年全国286个城市货物运输碳排放的空间分布及其变化,并应用地理加权回归模型探究城市化不同层面因素对碳排放时空分布变化的影响。结果表明:货物运输碳排放具有显著的空间集聚特征,且高排放地区的集聚规律更加显著;地理加权回归模型精度明显高于普通线性回归模型,经济变量、人口变量、货运强度变量与货物运输碳排放存在显著正相关关系。该研究可为中国各市级区域制订节能减排政策提供量化的科学依据。
A large amount of greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions are generated by the freight transport sector,which have significant influence on the global climate change.In this paper,the spatiotemporal variation of GHG emissions in cities was analyzed with the integration of microscopic emission investigation and spatially local assessment.This paper calculated the spatial distribution and changes of GHG emissions of freight transportation in 286 cities of China in 2000,2005,2010 and 2015 with microscopic emission model,and explored the influence of potential variables on distribution of GHG emissions by geographically weighted regression(GWR)model.Results showed that the GHG emissions had significant spatial agglomeration characteristics,especially in hot-spot regions;compared with the linear regression,GWR had significantly improved the estimation accuracy,the economy,population and freight strength variables had positively associations with GHG emissions.This study will provide a quantitative scientific basis for formulating energy conservation and emission reduction policies in various cities in China.
A large amount of greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions are generated by the freight transport sector,which have significant influence on the global climate change.In this paper,the spatiotemporal variation of GHG emissions in cities was analyzed with the integration of microscopic emission investigation and spatially local assessment.This paper calculated the spatial distribution and changes of GHG emissions of freight transportation in 286 cities of China in 2000,2005,2010 and 2015 with microscopic emission model,and explored the influence of potential variables on distribution of GHG emissions by geographically weighted regression(GWR)model.Results showed that the GHG emissions had significant spatial agglomeration characteristics,especially in hot-spot regions;compared with the linear regression,GWR had significantly improved the estimation accuracy,the economy,population and freight strength variables had positively associations with GHG emissions.This study will provide a quantitative scientific basis for formulating energy conservation and emission reduction policies in various cities in China.
引文
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[13]PAA.Local analysis of spatial relationships:a comparison of GWR and the expansion method[M]∥Computational Science and its Applications-ICCSA2005.Berlin:Springer Berlin Heidelberg,2005:162-172.
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[17]BRUNSDON C,FOTHERINGHAM A S,CHARLTON M E.Geographically weighted regression:a method for exploring spatial nonstationarity[J].Geographical Analysis,1996,28(4):281-298.
[18]GE Y,SONG Y Z,WANG J F,et al.Geographically weighted regression-based determinants of malaria incidences in Northern China[J].Transactions in GIS,2016,21(5):934-950.
[19]PARK N.Estimation of average annual daily traffic(AADT)using geographically weighted regression(GWR)method and geographic information systems[EB/OL].[2018-08-04].Paperuri:5a20366572939e5c1ee37e7e28bb84b1.
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[21]袁长伟,张倩,芮晓丽,等.中国交通运输碳排放时空演变及差异分析[J].环境科学学报,2016,36(12):4555-4562.(YUAN Changwei,ZHANG Qian,RUI Xiaoli et al.Spatiotemporal evolution and difference of transport carbon emissions in China[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2016,36(12):4555-4562.)
[22]张诗青,王建伟,郑文龙.中国交通运输碳排放及影响因素时空差异分析[J].环境科学学报,2017,37(12):4787-4797.(ZHANG Shiqing, WANG Jianwei,ZHENG Wenlong.Spatio-temporal difference of transportation carbon emission and its influencing factors in China[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2017,37(12):4787-4797.)
[23]赵敏,张卫国,俞立中.上海市居民出行方式与城市交通CO2排放及减排对策[J].环境科学研究,2009,22(6):747-752.(ZHAO Min,ZHANG Weiguo,WU Lizhong.Resident travel modes and CO2emissions by traffic in Shanghai City[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2009,22(6):747-752.)
[24]陈斐,杜道生.空间统计分析与GIS在区域经济分析中的应用[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2002,27(4):391-396.(CHEN Fei,DU Daosheng.Spatial statistical analysis and application of GIS in regional economic analysis[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2002,27(4):391-396.)
[25]王钦秀.一般线性回归模型:参数估计、假设检验、回归预测[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1988(2):39-44.(WANG Qinxiu.General linear regression models:parameter estimation,hypothesis testing,regression prediction[J].The Journal of Quantitative &Technical Economics,1988(2):39-44.)
[26]刘璋温.赤池信息量准则AIC及其意义[J].数学的实践与认识,1980(3):65-73.(LIU Zhangwen.Akaike information criterion AIC and its significance[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,1980(3):65-73.)
[27]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2001,2006,2011,2016.(National Bureau of Statistics of China.China statistical yearbook[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2001,2006,2011,2016.)
[28]国家统计局.中国交通年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2001,2006,2011,2016.(National Bureau of Statistics of China.Year book of China transportation and communications[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2001,2006,2011,2016.)
[29]国家统计局.中国能源统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2001,2006,2011,2016.(National Bureau of Statistics of China.China energy statistical yearbook[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2001,2006,2011,2016.)
[30]中国汽车技术研究中心.中国汽车工业年鉴[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2001,2006,2010,2016.(China Automotive Technology and Research Center.China automotive industry yearbook[M].Beijing:China Machine Press,2001,2006,2010,2016.)
[31]中国民航网.中国机场生产统计公报[EB/OL].[2018-08-04].http:∥www.caacnews.com.cn/zk/zj/niandujichangsheng changong bao.2001,2006,2011,2016.(China Civil Aviation Network.China Airport Production Statistics Bulletin[EB/OL].[2018-08-04].http:∥www.caacnews.com.cn/zk/zj/niandujichang sheng changongbao.2001,2006,2011,2016.
[32]国家统计局.中国城市统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2001,2006,2011,2016.(National Bureau of Statistics of China.China city statistical yearbook[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2001,2006,2011,2016.)
[33]王淼.中国交通运输部门低碳发展模式研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2012.(WANG Miao.Low carbon development modal research on transportation sector in China[D].Dalian:Dalian University of Technology,2012.)
[34]国家发改委气候变化司.省级温室气体清单编制指南(试行)[R]北京:国家发改委,2011.(Climate Change Division of National Development and Reform Commission.Guidelines for the provincial inventory of greenhouse gas(Trial)[R].Beijing:National Development and Reform Commission,2011.)
[35]宋然平.温室气体核算体系:企业核算与报告标准[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2012.(SONG Ranping.Greenhouse gas accounting system:enterprise accounting and reporting standards[M].Beijing:Economic Science Press,2012.)
[36]宋然平,朱晶晶,侯萍,等.准确核算每一吨排放:企业外购电力温室气体排放因子解析[J].世界资源研究所,2013,6:1-16.(SONG Ranping,ZHU Jingjing HOU Ping,et al.Getting every ton of emissions right:an analysis of emission factors for purchased electricity in China[J].World Resources Institute,2013,6:1-16.)
[37]邹志红,孙靖南,任广平.模糊评价因子的熵权法赋权及其在水质评价中的应用[J].环境科学学报,2005,25(4):552-556.(ZOU Zhihong,SUN Jingnan,REN Guangping.Study and application on the entropy method for determination of weight of evaluating indicators in fuzzy synthetic evaluation for water quality assessment[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2005,25(4):552-556.)
[38]NAKAYA T,FOTHERINGHAM A S,BRUNSDON C,et al.Geographically weighted poisson regression for disease association mapping[J].Statistics in Medicine,2005,24(17):2695.
[39]胡卫群.基于货运强度变化规律的货运量预测方法[J].交通科技,2011,245(2):107-109.(HU Weiqun.A freight volume prediction method based on the change law of freight strength[J].Transportation Science and Technology,2011,245(2):107-109.)
[2]霍健,翁玉艳,张希良.中国2050年低碳能源经济转型路径分析[J].环境保护,2016,44(16):38-42.(HUO Jian,WENG Yuyan,ZHANG Xilaing.Transition pathway toward a low-carbon energy economy in 2050[J].Environment Protection,2016,44(16):38-42.)
[3]SUSAN K ADAM R,JOHN R.Emissions reporting in the Australian road freight transport sector:is there a better method than the default option[J].International Journal of Sustainable Transportation,2013,9(2):93-102.
[4]SOLIS J C,SHEINBAUM C.Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission trends in Mexican road transport[J].Energy for Sustainable Development,2013,17(3):280-287.
[5]GREENING L A,TING M,DAVIS W B.Decomposition of aggregate carbon intensity for freight:trends from 10 OECD countries for the period 1971—1993[J].Energy Economics,1999,21(4):331-361.
[6]TIAN Y,ZHU Q,LAI K H,et al.Analysis of greenhouse gas emissions of freight transport sector in China[J].Journal of Transport Geography,2014,40:43-52.
[7]谢菲菲.城市交通碳排放量影响因素与低碳交通发展研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2013.(XIE Feifei.Research on the influencing factors of carbon emissions from urban transport and the development of low carbon transport[D].Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University,2013.)
[8]吴开亚,何彩虹,王桂新,等.上海市交通能源消费碳排放的测算与分解分析[J].经济地理,2012,32(11):45-51.(WU Kaiya,HE Caihong,WANG Guixin,et al.Measurement and decomposition analysis on carbon emissions of transportation industry in Shanghai[J].Economic Geography,2012,32(11):45-51.)
[9]宋京妮,吴群琪,袁长伟,等.基于地统计分析的中国省域交通运输系统碳排放时空特征研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(5):502-511.(SONG Jingni,WU Qunjing,YUAN Changwei,et al.Spatial-temporal characteristics of China transport carbon emissions based on geostatistical analysis[J].Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis,2017,13(5):502-511.)
[10]FOTHERINGHAM A S,BRUNSDON C,CHARLTON M.Geographically weighted regression:the analysis of spatially varying relationships[M].International Union of Crystallography,2002.
[11]LESAGE J.A spatial econometric examination of China’s economic growth[J].Geographic Information Sciences,1999,5(2):143-153.
[12]覃文忠,王建梅,刘妙龙.地理加权回归分析空间数据的空间非平稳性[J].辽宁师范大学学报(自然科学版),2005,28(4):476-479.(TAN Wenzhong,WANG Jianmei,LIU Miaolong.Spatial nonstationarity of geographically weighted regression analysis of spatial data[J].Journal of Liaoning Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2005,28(4):476-479.)
[13]PAA.Local analysis of spatial relationships:a comparison of GWR and the expansion method[M]∥Computational Science and its Applications-ICCSA2005.Berlin:Springer Berlin Heidelberg,2005:162-172.
[14]BRUNSDON C,FOTHERINGHAM S,CHARLTON M,et al.Geographically weighted regression as a statistical model[J].Encyclopedia of GIS,2000,47(3):431-443.
[15]ZHANG L,BI H,CHENG P,et al.Modeling spatial variation in tree diameter-height relationships[J].Forest Ecology &Management,2004,189(1/3):317-329.
[16]WANG Q,NI J,TENHUNEN J.Application of a geographically-weighted regression analysis to estimate net primary production of Chinese forest ecosystems[J].Global Ecology &Biogeography,2010,14(4):379-393.
[17]BRUNSDON C,FOTHERINGHAM A S,CHARLTON M E.Geographically weighted regression:a method for exploring spatial nonstationarity[J].Geographical Analysis,1996,28(4):281-298.
[18]GE Y,SONG Y Z,WANG J F,et al.Geographically weighted regression-based determinants of malaria incidences in Northern China[J].Transactions in GIS,2016,21(5):934-950.
[19]PARK N.Estimation of average annual daily traffic(AADT)using geographically weighted regression(GWR)method and geographic information systems[EB/OL].[2018-08-04].Paperuri:5a20366572939e5c1ee37e7e28bb84b1.
[20]ZHANG L,BI H,CHENG P,et al.Modeling spatial variation in tree diameter-height relationships.[J].Forest Ecology &Management,2004,189(1):317-329.
[21]袁长伟,张倩,芮晓丽,等.中国交通运输碳排放时空演变及差异分析[J].环境科学学报,2016,36(12):4555-4562.(YUAN Changwei,ZHANG Qian,RUI Xiaoli et al.Spatiotemporal evolution and difference of transport carbon emissions in China[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2016,36(12):4555-4562.)
[22]张诗青,王建伟,郑文龙.中国交通运输碳排放及影响因素时空差异分析[J].环境科学学报,2017,37(12):4787-4797.(ZHANG Shiqing, WANG Jianwei,ZHENG Wenlong.Spatio-temporal difference of transportation carbon emission and its influencing factors in China[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2017,37(12):4787-4797.)
[23]赵敏,张卫国,俞立中.上海市居民出行方式与城市交通CO2排放及减排对策[J].环境科学研究,2009,22(6):747-752.(ZHAO Min,ZHANG Weiguo,WU Lizhong.Resident travel modes and CO2emissions by traffic in Shanghai City[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2009,22(6):747-752.)
[24]陈斐,杜道生.空间统计分析与GIS在区域经济分析中的应用[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2002,27(4):391-396.(CHEN Fei,DU Daosheng.Spatial statistical analysis and application of GIS in regional economic analysis[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2002,27(4):391-396.)
[25]王钦秀.一般线性回归模型:参数估计、假设检验、回归预测[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1988(2):39-44.(WANG Qinxiu.General linear regression models:parameter estimation,hypothesis testing,regression prediction[J].The Journal of Quantitative &Technical Economics,1988(2):39-44.)
[26]刘璋温.赤池信息量准则AIC及其意义[J].数学的实践与认识,1980(3):65-73.(LIU Zhangwen.Akaike information criterion AIC and its significance[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,1980(3):65-73.)
[27]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2001,2006,2011,2016.(National Bureau of Statistics of China.China statistical yearbook[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2001,2006,2011,2016.)
[28]国家统计局.中国交通年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2001,2006,2011,2016.(National Bureau of Statistics of China.Year book of China transportation and communications[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2001,2006,2011,2016.)
[29]国家统计局.中国能源统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2001,2006,2011,2016.(National Bureau of Statistics of China.China energy statistical yearbook[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2001,2006,2011,2016.)
[30]中国汽车技术研究中心.中国汽车工业年鉴[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2001,2006,2010,2016.(China Automotive Technology and Research Center.China automotive industry yearbook[M].Beijing:China Machine Press,2001,2006,2010,2016.)
[31]中国民航网.中国机场生产统计公报[EB/OL].[2018-08-04].http:∥www.caacnews.com.cn/zk/zj/niandujichangsheng changong bao.2001,2006,2011,2016.(China Civil Aviation Network.China Airport Production Statistics Bulletin[EB/OL].[2018-08-04].http:∥www.caacnews.com.cn/zk/zj/niandujichang sheng changongbao.2001,2006,2011,2016.
[32]国家统计局.中国城市统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2001,2006,2011,2016.(National Bureau of Statistics of China.China city statistical yearbook[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2001,2006,2011,2016.)
[33]王淼.中国交通运输部门低碳发展模式研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2012.(WANG Miao.Low carbon development modal research on transportation sector in China[D].Dalian:Dalian University of Technology,2012.)
[34]国家发改委气候变化司.省级温室气体清单编制指南(试行)[R]北京:国家发改委,2011.(Climate Change Division of National Development and Reform Commission.Guidelines for the provincial inventory of greenhouse gas(Trial)[R].Beijing:National Development and Reform Commission,2011.)
[35]宋然平.温室气体核算体系:企业核算与报告标准[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2012.(SONG Ranping.Greenhouse gas accounting system:enterprise accounting and reporting standards[M].Beijing:Economic Science Press,2012.)
[36]宋然平,朱晶晶,侯萍,等.准确核算每一吨排放:企业外购电力温室气体排放因子解析[J].世界资源研究所,2013,6:1-16.(SONG Ranping,ZHU Jingjing HOU Ping,et al.Getting every ton of emissions right:an analysis of emission factors for purchased electricity in China[J].World Resources Institute,2013,6:1-16.)
[37]邹志红,孙靖南,任广平.模糊评价因子的熵权法赋权及其在水质评价中的应用[J].环境科学学报,2005,25(4):552-556.(ZOU Zhihong,SUN Jingnan,REN Guangping.Study and application on the entropy method for determination of weight of evaluating indicators in fuzzy synthetic evaluation for water quality assessment[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2005,25(4):552-556.)
[38]NAKAYA T,FOTHERINGHAM A S,BRUNSDON C,et al.Geographically weighted poisson regression for disease association mapping[J].Statistics in Medicine,2005,24(17):2695.
[39]胡卫群.基于货运强度变化规律的货运量预测方法[J].交通科技,2011,245(2):107-109.(HU Weiqun.A freight volume prediction method based on the change law of freight strength[J].Transportation Science and Technology,2011,245(2):107-109.)