互联网环境下企业前向并购时机选择
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摘要
本文研究互联网环境下企业最优前向并购时机选择问题。本文采用互联网效率系数度量互联网环境对企业的影响,运用随机最优控制方法和实物期权博弈理论,获得了企业并购前后的产量、无负债企业并购阈值、负债企业顺周期和逆周期并购阈值的解析解,在此基础上探讨互联网环境对并购时机的影响。理论分析和数值模拟表明:互联网环境对企业并购前后产量、并购阈值有显著影响,同时规模收益越高或原材料价格越有弹性的企业,影响越显著;并购后企业产量和并购阈值在传统经济环境下和互联网环境下随规模收益参数或原材料价格弹性系数变化的规律不同。
This paper considers the optimal timing problem of forward merge and acquisition(M&A) under Internet environment. We provide closed-form solutions for the firm outputs before/after M&A, the M&A threshold of unlevered firms, the M&A procyclical threshold and countercyclical threshold of levered firms under Internet environment by deriving and solving HJB equation. The conclusions are summed up as follows: the Internet environment have significant influences on outputs before/after M&A,the M&A threshold of firms,and M&As are likely to occur when firms operate on higher returns to scale or demand elasticity; compared with traditional economic environment, M&A thresholds under internet environment present different laws with the returns to scale or price elasticity increase.
This paper considers the optimal timing problem of forward merge and acquisition(M&A) under Internet environment. We provide closed-form solutions for the firm outputs before/after M&A, the M&A threshold of unlevered firms, the M&A procyclical threshold and countercyclical threshold of levered firms under Internet environment by deriving and solving HJB equation. The conclusions are summed up as follows: the Internet environment have significant influences on outputs before/after M&A,the M&A threshold of firms,and M&As are likely to occur when firms operate on higher returns to scale or demand elasticity; compared with traditional economic environment, M&A thresholds under internet environment present different laws with the returns to scale or price elasticity increase.
引文
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[3] Smit H T J.Acquisition strategies as option games[J].Journal of Applied Corporate Finance,2001,14(2):79～89.
[4] Lambrecht B M.The timing and terms of mergers motivated by economies of scale[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2004,72(1):41～62.
[5] Fan J P H,Goyal V K.On the patterns and wealth effects of vertical mergers[J].The Journal of Business,2006,79(2):877～902.
[6] Lambrecht B M,Myers S C.A theory of takeovers and disinvestment[J].Journal of Finance,2007,62(2):809～845.
[7] Kong J J,Kwok Y K.Real options in strategic investment games between two asymmetric firms[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2007,181(2):967～985.
[8] Martzoukos S H,Zacharias E.Real option games with R&D and learning spillovers[J].Omega,2013,41(2):236～249.
[9] Lukas E.Modeling the transitional dynamics of international joint venture policies:An option pricing approach[J].International Review of Economics & Finance,2013,27(2):21～36.
[10] Tarsalewska M.The timing of mergers along the production chain,capital structure,and risk dynamics[J].Journal of Banking & Finance,2015,57(C):51～64.
[11] 安瑛晖,张维.期权博弈理论的方法模型分析与发展[J].管理科学学报,2001,4(1):38～44.
[12] 陈绍刚,程艳华.不完全信息下基于双目标的博弈并购决策研究[J].管理科学,2012,25(6):35～42.
[13] 穆庆榜.不完全信息下双主并方合作善意的并购策略实验研究[J].管理评论,2015,27(8):163～175.
[14] 欧阳桃花等.基于能力重塑的互联网企业战略转型研究:百度案例[J].管理学报,2016,(12):1745～1755.
[15] Courchane M,Nickerson D,Sullivan R.Investment in internet banking as a real option:Theory and tests[J].Journal of Multinational Financial Management,2002,12(4～5):347～363.
[16] 陈珠明,张天舒.战略配售股东的投资行为和最优减持策略[J].系统工程学报,2015,30(5):659～670.
[17] 赵心刚,汪克夷,孙海洋.我国上市公司研发投入绩效的累积效应——基于修正的Cobb-Douglas生产函数的实证分析[J].技术经济,2012,31(10):47～51.
[18] 雷达,陈志华,邓建强.能源化工循环经济中类Cobb-Douglas生产函数简化及资源优化分配[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014,34(3):683～690.
[19] Alti A.How sensitive is investment to cash flow when financing is frictionless?[J].The Journal of Finance,2003,58(2):707～722.
[20] 吴瑶,谢康,肖静华.互联网环境下的理论发展与创新——2014“中国·实践·管理”论坛观点综述[J].管理学报,2015,12(3):342～346.
[21] 简兆权,刘晓彦.互联网环境下服务战略与组织结构的匹配——基于制造业的多案例研究[J].管理案例研究与评论,2017,(5):24～41.
[22] 石平,颜波,石松.不确定环境下网络渠道开通最优时机选择[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,(4):872～881.
[23] 杨阳.企业并购动机及绩效研究——以潍柴动力并购湘火炬为例[D].中国人民大学,2011.
[24] Barro R,Sala-i-Martin X.Economic growth,2nd edition[M].MIT Press,2003.
[25] Hotchkiss E S,Mooradian R M.Vulture investors and the market for control of distressed firms[J].Journal of Financial Economics,1997,43(3):401～432.
(1)企业生产过程是不断投入生产资源获得产出的过程,Cobb-Douglas生产函数以简单的形式反映了投入和产出的关系,现有文献基于Cobb-Douglas生产函数研究了以下问题:研发投入绩效问题[17],资源分配优化问题[18],现金流与投资之间的关系[19],横向兼并股票发盘的最优时机[4],企业并购时机选择与风险动态问题[10]。
(2)ε表示需求价格弹性,ε<1假设有着广泛的应用,如Barro和Sala-i-Martin(2003),Lambrecht(2004),Tarsalewska(2015)等[24,4,10]。
(3)当1-ε≤α时,,企业利润小于或等于零,意味着企业无法维持经营,因此只需探讨1-ε>α的情况,本文假设1-ε>α.
[2] Morellec E,Zhdanov A.The dynamics of mergers and acquisitions[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2001,77(3):649～672.
[3] Smit H T J.Acquisition strategies as option games[J].Journal of Applied Corporate Finance,2001,14(2):79～89.
[4] Lambrecht B M.The timing and terms of mergers motivated by economies of scale[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2004,72(1):41～62.
[5] Fan J P H,Goyal V K.On the patterns and wealth effects of vertical mergers[J].The Journal of Business,2006,79(2):877～902.
[6] Lambrecht B M,Myers S C.A theory of takeovers and disinvestment[J].Journal of Finance,2007,62(2):809～845.
[7] Kong J J,Kwok Y K.Real options in strategic investment games between two asymmetric firms[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2007,181(2):967～985.
[8] Martzoukos S H,Zacharias E.Real option games with R&D and learning spillovers[J].Omega,2013,41(2):236～249.
[9] Lukas E.Modeling the transitional dynamics of international joint venture policies:An option pricing approach[J].International Review of Economics & Finance,2013,27(2):21～36.
[10] Tarsalewska M.The timing of mergers along the production chain,capital structure,and risk dynamics[J].Journal of Banking & Finance,2015,57(C):51～64.
[11] 安瑛晖,张维.期权博弈理论的方法模型分析与发展[J].管理科学学报,2001,4(1):38～44.
[12] 陈绍刚,程艳华.不完全信息下基于双目标的博弈并购决策研究[J].管理科学,2012,25(6):35～42.
[13] 穆庆榜.不完全信息下双主并方合作善意的并购策略实验研究[J].管理评论,2015,27(8):163～175.
[14] 欧阳桃花等.基于能力重塑的互联网企业战略转型研究:百度案例[J].管理学报,2016,(12):1745～1755.
[15] Courchane M,Nickerson D,Sullivan R.Investment in internet banking as a real option:Theory and tests[J].Journal of Multinational Financial Management,2002,12(4～5):347～363.
[16] 陈珠明,张天舒.战略配售股东的投资行为和最优减持策略[J].系统工程学报,2015,30(5):659～670.
[17] 赵心刚,汪克夷,孙海洋.我国上市公司研发投入绩效的累积效应——基于修正的Cobb-Douglas生产函数的实证分析[J].技术经济,2012,31(10):47～51.
[18] 雷达,陈志华,邓建强.能源化工循环经济中类Cobb-Douglas生产函数简化及资源优化分配[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014,34(3):683～690.
[19] Alti A.How sensitive is investment to cash flow when financing is frictionless?[J].The Journal of Finance,2003,58(2):707～722.
[20] 吴瑶,谢康,肖静华.互联网环境下的理论发展与创新——2014“中国·实践·管理”论坛观点综述[J].管理学报,2015,12(3):342～346.
[21] 简兆权,刘晓彦.互联网环境下服务战略与组织结构的匹配——基于制造业的多案例研究[J].管理案例研究与评论,2017,(5):24～41.
[22] 石平,颜波,石松.不确定环境下网络渠道开通最优时机选择[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,(4):872～881.
[23] 杨阳.企业并购动机及绩效研究——以潍柴动力并购湘火炬为例[D].中国人民大学,2011.
[24] Barro R,Sala-i-Martin X.Economic growth,2nd edition[M].MIT Press,2003.
[25] Hotchkiss E S,Mooradian R M.Vulture investors and the market for control of distressed firms[J].Journal of Financial Economics,1997,43(3):401～432.
(1)企业生产过程是不断投入生产资源获得产出的过程,Cobb-Douglas生产函数以简单的形式反映了投入和产出的关系,现有文献基于Cobb-Douglas生产函数研究了以下问题:研发投入绩效问题[17],资源分配优化问题[18],现金流与投资之间的关系[19],横向兼并股票发盘的最优时机[4],企业并购时机选择与风险动态问题[10]。
(2)ε表示需求价格弹性,ε<1假设有着广泛的应用,如Barro和Sala-i-Martin(2003),Lambrecht(2004),Tarsalewska(2015)等[24,4,10]。
(3)当1-ε≤α时,,企业利润小于或等于零,意味着企业无法维持经营,因此只需探讨1-ε>α的情况,本文假设1-ε>α.