中国城市O_3浓度时空变化特征及驱动因素
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摘要
基于2015～2017年O_3浓度监测数据,采用克里金插值、空间自相关分析、热点分析和地理探测器等方法,研究了中国城市O_3浓度的时空变化特征及驱动因素.结果表明:①2015～2017年中国城市O_3污染逐年加重,年评价指标超标城市由74个增加到121个,平均超标天数比例由5. 2%上升到8. 1%.②O_3污染主要发生在4～9月,超标天数占全年总超标天数的87. 5%～95. 3%. 5～7月O_3浓度上升最快、污染最严重,超标天数比例由2015年的10. 6%上升到2017年的20. 5%,2017年83. 0%的中度污染和91. 0%的重度污染发生在5～7月.③华北平原O_3浓度的持续上升,已将京津冀和长三角地区O_3高污染区连成一片,形成了包括环渤海地区、中原城市群、长三角城市群、山西、关中地区和内蒙古中部集中连片的O_3高污染区,是我国O_3污染最严重的区域.珠三角、成渝城市群和华东地区南部O_3浓度上升也较快,成渝城市群的核心城市已初步形成我国新的O_3污染中心.④O_3浓度空间集聚性逐年增强,年度热点主要分布在华北平原和长江中下游地区,冷点主要分布于东北、西南及华南地区.⑤地理探测器分析表明,气象、工业化、城市化因素和O_3前体物排放量因子对O_3浓度分布均有显著驱动作用,但不同地区O_3浓度的驱动因素存在差别,同一因子在不同季节的驱动作用也不尽相同.
Based on the ozone monitoring data from 2015 to 2017,this study presents the spatial-temporal variation of the ozone concentration and its driving factors in major cities in China via Kriging interpolation,spatial autocorrelation analysis,hotspot analysis,and geographical detector. The results show that: ① The ozone pollution became increasingly heavier from 2015 to 2017,with the number of cities in which the 90 th percentile of daily maximum 8-h ozone concentration exceeded the air quality standard( GB 3095-2012) increased from 74 to 121,and the proportion of non-attainment days increased from 5. 2 percent to 8. 1 percent. ② Ozone pollution mainly happened from April to September,during which the non-attainment days contributed 87. 5 percent to 95. 3 percent to the yearly total number of ozone polluted days. From May to July,ozone concentrations increased the most dramatically,with the proportion of non-attainment days increasing from 10. 6 percent in 2015 to 20. 5 percent in 2017. Moreover,in 2017,83. 0 percent of the moderate ozone pollution and 91. 0 percent of the severe ozone pollution happened from May to July. ③ With the ever increasing ozone concentration over the North China Plain,the high ozone polluted areas such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration are connected geographically. They form the most highly polluted area in China,which includes the Bohai Rim region,Zhongyuan urban agglomeration,Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,Shanxi Province,Guanzhong area,and the middle part of Inner Mongolia. In addition,cities in Pearl River Delta region,Chengdu-and-Chongqing urban agglomeration,and the southern part of East China are also gathering speed in terms of ozone pollution,among which Chengdu-and-Chongqing urban agglomeration has become a new ozone-polluted center. ④ The spatial agglomeration of ozone concentration has been enhanced year by year with hot spots distributed mainly in the North China Plain and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. In contrast,there are cold spots in Northeast China,Southwest China,and Southern China. ⑤ The analysis results from geographical detector show that meteorological factors,industrialization,urbanization,and emissions of ozone precursors all have a significant effect on the distribution of the ozone concentration,but there are also discrepancies in the priority of the driving factors in different regions and seasons.
Based on the ozone monitoring data from 2015 to 2017,this study presents the spatial-temporal variation of the ozone concentration and its driving factors in major cities in China via Kriging interpolation,spatial autocorrelation analysis,hotspot analysis,and geographical detector. The results show that: ① The ozone pollution became increasingly heavier from 2015 to 2017,with the number of cities in which the 90 th percentile of daily maximum 8-h ozone concentration exceeded the air quality standard( GB 3095-2012) increased from 74 to 121,and the proportion of non-attainment days increased from 5. 2 percent to 8. 1 percent. ② Ozone pollution mainly happened from April to September,during which the non-attainment days contributed 87. 5 percent to 95. 3 percent to the yearly total number of ozone polluted days. From May to July,ozone concentrations increased the most dramatically,with the proportion of non-attainment days increasing from 10. 6 percent in 2015 to 20. 5 percent in 2017. Moreover,in 2017,83. 0 percent of the moderate ozone pollution and 91. 0 percent of the severe ozone pollution happened from May to July. ③ With the ever increasing ozone concentration over the North China Plain,the high ozone polluted areas such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration are connected geographically. They form the most highly polluted area in China,which includes the Bohai Rim region,Zhongyuan urban agglomeration,Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,Shanxi Province,Guanzhong area,and the middle part of Inner Mongolia. In addition,cities in Pearl River Delta region,Chengdu-and-Chongqing urban agglomeration,and the southern part of East China are also gathering speed in terms of ozone pollution,among which Chengdu-and-Chongqing urban agglomeration has become a new ozone-polluted center. ④ The spatial agglomeration of ozone concentration has been enhanced year by year with hot spots distributed mainly in the North China Plain and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. In contrast,there are cold spots in Northeast China,Southwest China,and Southern China. ⑤ The analysis results from geographical detector show that meteorological factors,industrialization,urbanization,and emissions of ozone precursors all have a significant effect on the distribution of the ozone concentration,but there are also discrepancies in the priority of the driving factors in different regions and seasons.
引文
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[23]段晓瞳,曹念文,王潇,等.2015年中国近地面臭氧浓度特征分析[J].环境科学,2017,38(12):4976-4982.Duan X T,Cao N W,Wang X,et al.Characteristics analysis of the surface ozone concentration of China in 2015[J].Environmental Science,2017,38(12):4976-4982.
[24]吴锴,康平,于雷,等.2015-2016年中国城市臭氧浓度时空变化规律研究[J].环境科学学报,2018,38(6):2179-2190.Wu K,Kang P,Yu L,et al.Pollution status and spatio-temporal variations of ozone in China during 2015-2016[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2018,38(6):2179-2190.
[25]国家统计局城市社会经济调查司.中国城市统计年鉴2017[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2017.
[26]Brus D J,Heuvelink G B M.Optimization of sample patterns for universal kriging of environmental variables[J].Geoderma,2007,138(1-2):86-95.
[27]Goodchild M,Haining R,Wise S,et al.Integrating GIS and spatial data analysis:problems and possibilities[J].International Journal of Geographical Information Systems,1992,6(5):407-423.
[28]Getis A,Ord J K.The analysis of spatial association by use of distance statistics[J].Geographical Analysis,2010,24(3):189-206.
[29]王劲峰,徐成东.地理探测器:原理与展望[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):116-134.Wang J F,Xu C D.Geodetector:Principle and prospective[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(1):116-134.
[30]周亮,周成虎,杨帆,等.2000-2011年中国PM2.5时空演化特征及驱动因素解析[J].地理学报,2017,72(11):2079-2092.Zhou L,Zhou C H,Yang F,et al.Spatio-temporal evolution and the influencing factors of PM2.5in China between 2000 and 2011[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(11):2079-2092.
[31]Zhou X J,Luo C,Ding G A.Preliminary analysis of the variations of surface ozone and nitric oxides in Lin'an[J].Journal of Meteorological Research,1993,7(3):287-294.
[2]Wang T,Xue L K,Brimblecombe P,et al.Ozone pollution in China:A review of concentrations,meteorological influences,chemical precursors,and effects[J].Science of the Total Environment,2017,575:1582-1596.
[3]Tang H Y,Liu G,Zhu J G,et al.Seasonal variations in surface ozone as influenced by Asian summer monsoon and biomass burning in agricultural fields of the northern Yangtze River Delta[J].Atmospheric Research,2013,122:67-76.
[4]Tilmes S,Kinnison D E,Garcia R R,et al.Impact of very short-lived halogens on stratospheric ozone abundance and UVradiation in a geo-engineered atmosphere[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2012,12(22):10945-10955.
[5]程麟钧,王帅,宫正宇,等.中国臭氧浓度的时空变化特征及分区[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(11):4003-4012.Cheng L J,Wang S,Gong Z Y,et al.Spatial and seasonal variation and regionalization of ozone concentrations in China[J].China Environmental Science,2017,37(11):4003-4012.
[6]李霄阳,李思杰,刘鹏飞,等.2016年中国城市臭氧浓度的时空变化规律[J].环境科学学报,2018,38(4):1263-1274.Li X Y,Li S J,Liu P F,et al.Spatial and temporal variations of ozone concentrations in China in 2016[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2018,38(4):1263-1274.
[7]Su R,Lu K D,Yu J Y,et al.Exploration of the formation mechanism and source attribution of ambient ozone in Chongqing with an observation-based model[J].Science China Earth Sciences,2018,61(1):23-32.
[8]Wang B,Shao M,Lu S H,et al.Variation of ambient nonmethane hydrocarbons in Beijing city in summer 2008[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions,2010,10(13):5911-5923.
[9]Li L,Chen C H,Huang C,et al.Ozone sensitivity analysis with the MM5-CMAQ modeling system for Shanghai[J].Journal of Environmental Sciences,2011,23(7):1150-1157.
[10]Wang X S,Li J L,Zhang Y H,et al.Ozone source attribution during a severe photochemical smog episode in Beijing,China[J].Science in China Series B:Chemistry,2009,52(8):1270-1280.
[11]程念亮,李云婷,张大伟,等.2014年北京市城区臭氧超标日浓度特征及与气象条件的关系[J].环境科学,2016,37(6):2041-2051.Cheng N L,Li Y T,Zhang D W,et al.Characteristics of ozone over standard and its relationships with meteorological conditions in Beijing city in 2014[J].Environmental Science,2016,37(6):2041-2051.
[12]严茹莎,陈敏东,高庆先,等.北京夏季典型臭氧污染分布特征及影响因子[J].环境科学研究,2013,26(1):43-49.Yan R S,Chen M D,Gao Q X,et al.Characteristics of typical ozone pollution distribution and impact factors in Beijing in summer[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2013,26(1):43-49.
[13]李浩,李莉,黄成,等.2013年夏季典型光化学污染过程中长三角典型城市O3来源识别[J].环境科学,2015,36(1):1-10.Li H,Li L,Huang C,et al.Ozone source apportionment at urban area during a typical photochemical pollution episode in the summer of 2013 in the Yangtze River Delta[J].Environmental Science,2015,36(1):1-10.
[14]梁永贤,尹魁浩,胡泳涛,等.深圳市机动车限行对臭氧浓度影响分析[J].环境科学与技术,2013,36(1):197-201.Liang Y X,Yin K H,Hu Y T,et al.Analysis of motor vehicle restriction effect on ozone concentration in Shenzhen[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2013,36(1):197-201.
[15]Xing J,Wang S X,Jang C,et al.Nonlinear response of ozone to precursor emission changes in China:a modeling study using response surface methodology[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2011,11(10):5027-5044.
[16]Wolf K,Cyrys J,HarciníkováT,et al.Land use regression modeling of ultrafine particles,ozone,nitrogen oxides and markers of particulate matter pollution in Augsburg,Germany[J].Science of the Total Environment,2017,579:1531-1540.
[17]Sarrat C,Lemonsu A,Masson V,et al.Impact of urban heat island on regional atmospheric pollution[J].Atmospheric Environment,2006,40(10):1743-1758.
[18]赵旭辉,董昊,季冕,等.合肥市O3污染时空变化特征及影响因素分析[J].环境科学学报,2018,38(2):649-660.Zhao X H,Dong H,Ji M,et al.Analysis on the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of O3and its influencing factors in Hefei City[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2018,38(2):649-660.
[19]齐冰,牛彧文,杜荣光,等.杭州市近地面大气臭氧浓度变化特征分析[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(2):443-451.Qi B,Niu Y W,Du R G,et al.Characteristics of surface ozone concentration in urban site of Hangzhou[J].China Environmental Science,2017,37(2):443-451.
[20]曹庭伟,吴锴,康平,等.成渝城市群臭氧污染特征及影响因素分析[J].环境科学学报,2018,38(4):1275-1284.Cao T W,Wu K,Kang P,et al.Study on ozone pollution characteristics and meteorological cause of Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2018,38(4):1275-1284.
[21]易睿,王亚林,张殷俊,等.长江三角洲地区城市臭氧污染特征与影响因素分析[J].环境科学学报,2015,35(8):2370-2377.Yi R,Wang Y L,Zhang Y J,et al.Pollution characteristics and influence factors of ozone in Yangtze River Delta[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2015,35(8):2370-2377.
[22]南国卫,孙虎.基于灰色关联模型对陕西省O3浓度影响因素分析[J].环境科学学报,2017,37(12):4519-4527.Nan G W,Sun H.Analysis of the driving factors of O3in Shaanxi province based on grey correlation model[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2017,37(12):4519-4527.
[23]段晓瞳,曹念文,王潇,等.2015年中国近地面臭氧浓度特征分析[J].环境科学,2017,38(12):4976-4982.Duan X T,Cao N W,Wang X,et al.Characteristics analysis of the surface ozone concentration of China in 2015[J].Environmental Science,2017,38(12):4976-4982.
[24]吴锴,康平,于雷,等.2015-2016年中国城市臭氧浓度时空变化规律研究[J].环境科学学报,2018,38(6):2179-2190.Wu K,Kang P,Yu L,et al.Pollution status and spatio-temporal variations of ozone in China during 2015-2016[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2018,38(6):2179-2190.
[25]国家统计局城市社会经济调查司.中国城市统计年鉴2017[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2017.
[26]Brus D J,Heuvelink G B M.Optimization of sample patterns for universal kriging of environmental variables[J].Geoderma,2007,138(1-2):86-95.
[27]Goodchild M,Haining R,Wise S,et al.Integrating GIS and spatial data analysis:problems and possibilities[J].International Journal of Geographical Information Systems,1992,6(5):407-423.
[28]Getis A,Ord J K.The analysis of spatial association by use of distance statistics[J].Geographical Analysis,2010,24(3):189-206.
[29]王劲峰,徐成东.地理探测器:原理与展望[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):116-134.Wang J F,Xu C D.Geodetector:Principle and prospective[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(1):116-134.
[30]周亮,周成虎,杨帆,等.2000-2011年中国PM2.5时空演化特征及驱动因素解析[J].地理学报,2017,72(11):2079-2092.Zhou L,Zhou C H,Yang F,et al.Spatio-temporal evolution and the influencing factors of PM2.5in China between 2000 and 2011[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(11):2079-2092.
[31]Zhou X J,Luo C,Ding G A.Preliminary analysis of the variations of surface ozone and nitric oxides in Lin'an[J].Journal of Meteorological Research,1993,7(3):287-294.