节欲、推迟养老与生育补贴——生育力量释放的对策
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摘要
随着城镇化和工业化的推进,社会养老和储蓄养老广泛开展,生育成本逐年上升且由家庭承担,生育收益逐步社会化,加上较为利己生育文化的形成,导致生育水平不断下降。根据历史和国际经验,养老对生育存在挤占,老龄化的社会里养老挤占社会和生育资源,进而降低了生育水平。2015~2030年间,中国城镇化推进的同时,也将迎来最大婴儿潮世代60后的退休。为给中国再争取10~15年人口发展的战略机遇期,成年劳动力通过减少自身消费,即节欲,可以在不影响当期产出和下一期资本增量以及子女人力资本投入和技术研发的前提下,释放生育力量,达到为未来储备人力资源和人口红利的目的。通过延迟退休和推迟养老,避免养老潮到来造成社会养老负担过重而对生育资源产生挤占,从而提高生育水平。最后,在全面二孩政策的背景下,基于当前生育的正外部性,对生育行为给予一定的财政和货币补贴,同时在人口和劳动政策上给予倾斜,改变家庭生育行为,让实际生育水平真正进入2.0时代。
With the promotion of urbanization and industrialization,social pension and savings pension have been carried out,the fertility cost increases year by year,and is borne by the family,the fertility benefits is gradually socialized,and with the formation of a relatively self-interested fertility culture,the fertility level is declining. According to historical and international experience,the old age squeeze fertility resources,thereby reducing the fertility level.After 2015,in order to win population development period of strategic opportunities of another 10-15 years,adult labor should reduce their consumption and abstinence for future reserves of human resources and the demographic dividend,without affecting the current output and next period capital increment,children's human capital investment and technology development. Delaying retirement can avoid heavy pension burden,and that fertility level greatly decreased. Finally,in the background of the two children,based on positive externalities of fertility,the country can supply certain fiscal and monetary support for childbearing behavior,change fertility behavior,release fertility strength,make the actual fertility level enter into the 2.0 era.
With the promotion of urbanization and industrialization,social pension and savings pension have been carried out,the fertility cost increases year by year,and is borne by the family,the fertility benefits is gradually socialized,and with the formation of a relatively self-interested fertility culture,the fertility level is declining. According to historical and international experience,the old age squeeze fertility resources,thereby reducing the fertility level.After 2015,in order to win population development period of strategic opportunities of another 10-15 years,adult labor should reduce their consumption and abstinence for future reserves of human resources and the demographic dividend,without affecting the current output and next period capital increment,children's human capital investment and technology development. Delaying retirement can avoid heavy pension burden,and that fertility level greatly decreased. Finally,in the background of the two children,based on positive externalities of fertility,the country can supply certain fiscal and monetary support for childbearing behavior,change fertility behavior,release fertility strength,make the actual fertility level enter into the 2.0 era.
引文
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[19]金刚.中国退休年龄的现状、问题及实施延迟退休的必要性分析[J].社会保障研究,2010(2):32-38.
[20]周立群,周晓波.中国生育率下降的制度经济学分析——来自养老社会化的解释[J].西南民族大学学报(人文社科版),2016(11):16-20.
[2]杨华磊,周晓波.中日人口世代更替对宏观经济趋势性特征的影响及其启示[J].社会科学研究,2015(5):65-72.
[3]汪伟.计划生育政策的储蓄与增长效应:理论与中国的经验分析[J].经济研究,2010(10):63-77.
[4]蔡昉,王美艳.中国面对的收入差距现实与中等收入陷阱风险[J].中国人民大学学报,2014(3):1-7.
[5]穆光宗.论生育文化和生育控制[J].社会科学,1996(9):56-60.
[6]郑姝霞.生育文化转型对生育率的影响——以贵州省为例[J].人民论坛,2011(29):168-169.
[7]李建民.生育理性和生育决策与我国低生育水平稳定机制的转变[J].人口研究,2014(6):2-18.
[8]陈佳鞠,翟振武.20世纪以来国际生育水平变迁历程及影响机制分析[J].中国人口科学,2016(2):12-25.
[9]陈友华,苗国.意料之外与情理之中:单独二孩政策为何遇冷[J].探索与争鸣,2015(2):48-53.
[10]Rosati F.C.Social Security in A Non-altruistic Model with Uncertainty and Endogenous Fertility[J].Journal of Public Economics,1996,60(2):283-294.
[11]Cigno A.,Rosati F.C.Jointly Determined Saving and Fertility Behaviour:Theory,and Estimates for Germany,Italy,UK and USA[J].European Economic Review,1996,40(8):1561-1589.
[12]杨支柱.积重难返的超低生育率[J].中国青年研究,2012(11):19-23.
[13]张川川,陈斌开.“社会养老”能否替代“家庭养老”?——来自中国新型农村社会养老保险的证据[J].经济研究,2014(11):102-115.
[14]Schoonbroodt A.,M.Property Rights and Efficiency in OLG Models with Endogenous Fertility[J].Journal of Economic Theory,2014,150(1):551-582.
[15]Greenwood J.,Seshadri A.The Baby Boom and Baby Bust[J].American Economic Review,2002,95(1):183-207.
[16]Cooley T.F.,Soares J.Will Social Security Survive the Baby Boom?[C]//Carnegie-rochester Conference Series on Public Policy.Re PEc,1996:89-121.
[17]Brooks R.Asset-Market Effects of the Baby Boom and Social-Security Reform[J].American Economic Review,2002,92(2):402-406.
[18]刘长明,苏宝梅.对节欲的伦理解读与经济评价[J].社会科学辑刊,2001(3):20-26.
[19]金刚.中国退休年龄的现状、问题及实施延迟退休的必要性分析[J].社会保障研究,2010(2):32-38.
[20]周立群,周晓波.中国生育率下降的制度经济学分析——来自养老社会化的解释[J].西南民族大学学报(人文社科版),2016(11):16-20.