基于最大熵模型的斑翅果蝇适生性研究
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摘要
斑翅果蝇(Drosophila suzukii)是重要的水果果实害虫,近年来在全球的扩散、为害备受关注。为防控斑翅果蝇入侵,保护我国果品生产安全,采用最大墒模型(MaxEnt)与ArcGIS相结合的技术模式,在收集、整理斑翅果蝇全球地理分布信息及筛选气候变量的基础上,预测了当前及未来气候条件下该虫在全球及我国的适生区分布。结果表明,在当前气候条件下,斑翅果蝇在全球的适生范围较广、适生程度较高;我国适生区面积比为61.68%,其中,高度适生区、中度适生区和低度适生区面积比分别为7.59%、27.81%和26.28%,在2050年RCP26和RCP85的气候条件下,斑翅果蝇在全球及我国的适生范围和适生程度均呈扩大趋势,其适生区北界向北拓展。建议有关部门加强针对斑翅果蝇虫情监测、综合治理及出口检疫的工作力度。
Drosophila suzukii was an important fruit insert pest and its global spread and damage had been paid more attention in recent years.In order to prevent invasion ol D.suzukii and protect fruit production in China,we studied potential geographical distributions ol D.suzukii in the world and in China under current and future climate conditions.MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied as technical mode which based on collecting global geographical distributions information and screening main climate variables.Under current climate conditions.D,suzukii presented a relative wide potential geographical distribution in the world,and 61.68%areas in China with suitability which including 7.59%areas of high level.27.81%areas of medium level and 26.28%areas of low level.Under RCP26 and RCP85 climate conditions in2050.potential geographical distribution of D.suzukii enlarged and northern borderline of suitable region expanded northward in the world as well as in China.We suggested related organizations in China to strengthen surveillance,integrated pest management and export quarantine measures of D.suzukii systematically.
Drosophila suzukii was an important fruit insert pest and its global spread and damage had been paid more attention in recent years.In order to prevent invasion ol D.suzukii and protect fruit production in China,we studied potential geographical distributions ol D.suzukii in the world and in China under current and future climate conditions.MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied as technical mode which based on collecting global geographical distributions information and screening main climate variables.Under current climate conditions.D,suzukii presented a relative wide potential geographical distribution in the world,and 61.68%areas in China with suitability which including 7.59%areas of high level.27.81%areas of medium level and 26.28%areas of low level.Under RCP26 and RCP85 climate conditions in2050.potential geographical distribution of D.suzukii enlarged and northern borderline of suitable region expanded northward in the world as well as in China.We suggested related organizations in China to strengthen surveillance,integrated pest management and export quarantine measures of D.suzukii systematically.
引文
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[15]Follett P A,Swedman A,Price D K.Postharvest irradiation treatment for quarantine control of Drosophila suzukii(Diptera;Drosophilidae)in fresh commodities[J].J Econ Entomol,2014,107(3):966-968.
[2]Phillips S J,Anderson R P,Schapire R E.Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J].Ecological Modelling,2006,190(3/4):231-259.
[3]Fourcade Y,E ngler J O,R(o|¨)dder D,et al.Mapping species distributions with MaxEnt using a geographically biased sample of presence data:a performance assessment of methods for correcting sampling bias[J].PLoS ONE,2014,9(5):e97122.
[4]王运生,谢丙炎,万方浩,等.相似穿孔线虫在中国的适生区预测[J].中国农业科学,2007,40(11):2502-2506.
[5]李建中.六种潜在外来人侵线虫在中国的适生性风险分析[D].吉林:吉林农业大学,2008.
[6]曾辉,梁忆冰,李志红,等.利用MaxEnt预测橡胶南美叶疫病菌在全球的潜在地理分布[J].植物保护,2008,34(3):88-92.
[7]曲伟伟,李志红,倪文龙,等.利用MaxEnt预测橡胶树棒孢霉落叶病在中国的适生区[J].植物保护,2011,37(4):51-57.
[8]吕文诚.葡萄花翅小卷蛾在中国的潜在地理分布研究[D].北京:中国农业大学,2012.
[9]付小勇,泽桑梓,周晓,等.基于MaxEnt的云南省薇甘菊分布预测及评价[J].广东农业科学,2015(12):159-162.
[10]Sarma R R,Munsi M,Ananthram A N.Effect of climate change on invasion risk of giant African snail?(Achatina fulica Ferussac,1821:Achatinidae)in India[J].PLoS ONE,2015,10(11):e0143724.
[11]Wiman N G,Walton V M,Dalton D T.Integrating temperature-dependent life table data into a matrix projection model for Drosophila suzukii population estimation[J].PLoS ONE,2014,9(9):1-14.
[12]Asplen M K,Anfora G,Biondi A.Invasion biology of spotted wing Drosophila(Drosophila suzukii):a global perspective and future priorities[J].J Pest Sci,2015,88:472-480.
[13]陈新美,雷渊才,张雄清.样本量对MaxEnt模型预测物种分布精度和稳定性的影响[J].林业科学,
[14]Stephens A R,Asplen M K,Hutchison W D,et al.Cold hardiness of winter-acclimated Drosophila suzukii(Diptera:Drosophilidae)adults[J].Environ.Entomol,2015,44(6):1622-1625.
[15]Follett P A,Swedman A,Price D K.Postharvest irradiation treatment for quarantine control of Drosophila suzukii(Diptera;Drosophilidae)in fresh commodities[J].J Econ Entomol,2014,107(3):966-968.