基于@RISK的瓜实蝇对我国苦瓜产业的潜在经济损失评估
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摘要
瓜实蝇(Zeugodacus cucurbitae (Coquillett))是我国进境植物检疫性害虫,也是重点管理的外来入侵物种,严重危害苦瓜等葫芦科作物。该虫目前局部分布于我国南方地区,其适生区北界已至北京北部及河北中北部,但潜在经济损失尚未见报道。本研究在收集相关资料的基础上,结合瓜实蝇发生为害特点、田间防治情况以及苦瓜产销信息,构建了防治与不防治两种场景下瓜实蝇的潜在经济损失评估模型,并采用@RISK软件和随机模拟方法,预测了瓜实蝇可能给我国苦瓜产业带来的直接经济损失。结果显示,在不防治和防治的场景下,瓜实蝇每年可能给我国苦瓜产业带来的直接经济损失总值分别为440 757.51～2 348 173.45万元和133 742.41～1 416 106.91万元;在投入防治时,每年可以挽回的直接经济损失在223 259.26～1 067 075.85万元之间。因此,建议我国海关总署、农业农村部等有关部门进一步加强针对瓜实蝇的进境检疫、国内发生区瓜果调运管理以及田间防治工作。
Melon fruit fly(Zeugodacus cucurbitae(Coquillett)) is listed as the entry quarantine pest and key management invasive alien species of China,which seriously harms cucurbit crops such as bitter gourd. Melon fruit fly regionally distributes in some south areas of China,and the northern boundary of its suitable area has reached the north of Beijing and north central of Hebei,however,the potential economic loss has not been reported. Based on collecting relevant data and combining the characteristics of occurrence and field control of Z. cucurbitae as well as the information on the production and marketing of bitter gourd,this study establishs a potential economic loss assessment model for Z. cucurbitae and utilizs @RISK to evaluate the potential direct economic loss caused by this fly in China. The results show that the total potential direct economic loss caused by melon fruit fly to bitter gourd industry in China is 4 407.58-23 481.73 million RMB yearly without control and 1 337.42-14 161.07 million RMB yearly under control. Therefore,it can retrieve a direct loss of 2 232.59-10 670.76 million RMB every year under control of Z. cucurbitae. Thus,we suggest that the General Administration of Customs of China,the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and other relevant organizations should further strengthen the entry quarantine measures,the domestic transport management of melons and fruits from infected areas,and the field control of Z. cucurbitae.
Melon fruit fly(Zeugodacus cucurbitae(Coquillett)) is listed as the entry quarantine pest and key management invasive alien species of China,which seriously harms cucurbit crops such as bitter gourd. Melon fruit fly regionally distributes in some south areas of China,and the northern boundary of its suitable area has reached the north of Beijing and north central of Hebei,however,the potential economic loss has not been reported. Based on collecting relevant data and combining the characteristics of occurrence and field control of Z. cucurbitae as well as the information on the production and marketing of bitter gourd,this study establishs a potential economic loss assessment model for Z. cucurbitae and utilizs @RISK to evaluate the potential direct economic loss caused by this fly in China. The results show that the total potential direct economic loss caused by melon fruit fly to bitter gourd industry in China is 4 407.58-23 481.73 million RMB yearly without control and 1 337.42-14 161.07 million RMB yearly under control. Therefore,it can retrieve a direct loss of 2 232.59-10 670.76 million RMB every year under control of Z. cucurbitae. Thus,we suggest that the General Administration of Customs of China,the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and other relevant organizations should further strengthen the entry quarantine measures,the domestic transport management of melons and fruits from infected areas,and the field control of Z. cucurbitae.
引文
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[2]张全胜.瓜实蝇生物学特性观察及其防治建议.中国植保导刊, 2002, 22(3):14-15.
[3]李志红.生物入侵防控:重要经济实蝇潜在地理分布研究.北京:北京农业大学出版社, 2015.
[4]曾士迈.植保系统工程导论.北京:北京农业大学出版社,1994.
[5] Cook D C, Liu S, Edwards J, et al. Predicting the Benefits of Banana Bunchy Top Virus Exclusion from Commercial Plantations in Australia. Plos One, 2012, 7(8):e42391.
[6]方焱,李志红,秦萌,等.南亚果实蝇对我国南瓜产业的潜在经济损失评估.植物检疫, 2015, 29(3):28-33.
[7] Bradshaw C J A, Leroy B, Bellard C, et al. Massive yet grossly underestimated global costs of invasive insects. Nature Communications, 2016, 7:12986.
[8] Darbro J, Halasa Y, Montgomery B, et al. An Economic Analysis of the Threats Posed by the Establishment of Aedes albopictus, in Brisbane, Queensland. Ecological Economics,2017, 142:203-213.
[9] Palisade Corporation. Guide to Using@RISK[EB/OL].[2018-07-06]. http://www.palisade.com/risk/.
[10] http://202.127.42.157/moazzys/shucai_cx.aspx.
[11]张白鸽.华南陆地苦瓜生产体系的氮素调控[D].北京:中国农业大学, 2016.
[12]李人柯.瓜实蝇的为害与防治.中国蔬菜, 1997, 1(3):26-27.
[13] Dhillon M K, Singh R, Naresh J S, et al. The melon fruit fly, Bactrocera cucurbitae:a review of its biology and management. Journal of Insect Science, 2005, 5(1):40.
[14] http://nc.mofcom.gov.cn/.
[15] Pedigo L P, And S H H, Higley L G. Economic Injury Levels in Theory and Practice. Annual Review of Entomology, 1986, 31(1):341-368.
[16]肖悦岩.中国农业百科全书植物病理学卷.北京:中国农业出版社, 1996.
[17]潘飞,肖彤斌,秦双,等.瓜实蝇为害对苦瓜产量的影响及其防治指标研究.中国植保导刊, 2014, 34(10):14-15.