基于MaxEnt模型的草地贪夜蛾适生性分析
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摘要
草地贪夜蛾是危害粮食作物的重大害虫,已成功入侵非洲、印度、缅甸、泰国等地并造成严重危害,目前在中国云南已经零星发生。本文以其在全球的分布数据为基础,结合环境气候数据,利用最大熵模型MaxEnt对其在我国的潜在地理分布进行预测,结果表明该虫在中国的适生区占全国面积约52.79%,其中高、中、低度适生区分别占全国面积4.75%、12.14%、35.90%;中高度适生范围主要分布在华南、华中、华东、西南地区东部、陕西局部、云南局部和台湾局部。因此还需在其适生范围加强监测管理,严防草地贪夜蛾入侵,以保障我国农业安全。
Spodoptera frugiperda(Smith) is a devastating pest insect for crops. It has successfully invaded Africa,India,Myanmar,Thailand etc. where has caused serious damage. At present,it has sporadically occurred in Yunnan,China. Based on the global distribution data and combined with the environmental and climatic data,the potential geographic distribution of fall armyworm in China was predicted by MaxEnt model. The results showed that 52.79% territory of China was suitable for the survival of fall armyworm. Among them,the high,medium and low suitable habitat accounted for 4.75%,12.14% and 35.90%respectively. The moderate and high suitable areas mainly distributed in South China,Central China,East China,Southwest China,as well as part of Shaanxi,Yunnan and Taiwan province. Therefore,it is urgently necessary to strengthen monitoring and management in its suitable range to prevent the invasion of fall armyworm which would ensure the safety of agriculture in China.
Spodoptera frugiperda(Smith) is a devastating pest insect for crops. It has successfully invaded Africa,India,Myanmar,Thailand etc. where has caused serious damage. At present,it has sporadically occurred in Yunnan,China. Based on the global distribution data and combined with the environmental and climatic data,the potential geographic distribution of fall armyworm in China was predicted by MaxEnt model. The results showed that 52.79% territory of China was suitable for the survival of fall armyworm. Among them,the high,medium and low suitable habitat accounted for 4.75%,12.14% and 35.90%respectively. The moderate and high suitable areas mainly distributed in South China,Central China,East China,Southwest China,as well as part of Shaanxi,Yunnan and Taiwan province. Therefore,it is urgently necessary to strengthen monitoring and management in its suitable range to prevent the invasion of fall armyworm which would ensure the safety of agriculture in China.
引文
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[8]吴秋琳,姜玉英,吴孔明.草地贪夜蛾缅甸虫源迁入中国的路径分析.植物保护, 2019, 45(2):1-6.
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[15]齐国君,陈婷,高燕,等.基于Maxent的大洋臀纹粉蚧和南洋臀纹粉蚧在中国的适生区分析.环境昆虫学报, 2015, 37(2):219-223.
[16]朱耿平,原雪姣,范靖宇,等. MaxEnt模型参数设置对其所模拟物种地理分布和生态位的影响——以茶翅蝽为例.生物安全学报, 2018, 27(2):118-123.
[17]王运生,戴良英,谢丙炎,等. ROC曲线分析在评价入侵物种分布模型中的应用.生物多样性, 2007, 15(4):365-372.
[18]秦萌,何佳遥,赵守歧,等.基于Maxent模型的玉米褪绿斑驳病毒潜在地理分布研究.中国植保导刊, 2017(11):66-72.
[19] Swets J A. Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems.Science, 1988, 240(4857):1285-1293.
[20]齐国君,高燕,黄德超,等.基于MAXENT的稻水象甲在中国的入侵扩散动态及适生性分析.植物保护学报, 2012, 39(2):129-136.
[21]卢辉,钟义海,徐雪莲,等.基于MaxEnt模型的对粒材小蠹的适生性分析.热带作物学报, 2013, 34(11):2239-2245.
[22]宋光远,张俊华,杨定,等.长林小蠹在中国的适生区预测.植物检疫, 2018. 32(5):66-70.
[23]冯璐,刘建宏,李永和,等.基于Maxent模型的楚雄腮扁叶蜂潜在分布区预测.西部林业科学, 2013, 42(2):49-55.
[24] Wisz M S, Hijmans R J, Li J, et al. Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models. Diversity and distributions, 2008, 14(5):763-773.
[25] Dumas P, Legeai F, Lemaitre C, et al. Spodoptera frugiperda(Lepidoptera:Noctuidae)host-plant variants:two host strains or two distinct species? Genetica, 2015, 143(3):305-316.
[26]郭井菲,赵建周,何康来,等.警惕危险性害虫草地贪夜蛾入侵中国.植物保护, 2018(6):1-10.
[27]王茹琳,高晓清,王闫利,等.基于MaxEnt的非洲橘硬蓟马在全球及中国的潜在分布区预测.中国农学通报, 2014, 30(28):315-320.
[28]赵晶晶,高丹,冯纪年.基于Maxent模型的葡萄根瘤蚜在中国的适生性分析.西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2015, 43(11):99-104.
[2] Martinelli S, Barata R M, Zucchi M I, et al. Molecular variability of Spodoptera frugiperda(Lepidoptera:Noctuidae)populations associated to maize and cotton crops in Brazil.Journal of Economic Entomology,2006,99(2):519-526.
[3] CABI. Spodoptera frugiperda(fall armyworm)[EB/OL].(2019-02-18)[2019-03-04]. https://www.cabi.org/ISC/datasheet/29810.
[4] Lima M S, Silva P S L, Oliveira O F, et al. Corn yield response to weed and fall armyworm controls. Planta Daninha, 2010, 28(1):103-111.
[5] Kalleshwaraswamy C M, Asokan R, Swamy H M M, et al. First report of the Fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda(JE Smith)(Lepidoptera:Noctuidae), an alien invasive pest on maize in India. Pest Management in Horticultural Ecosystems, 2018, 24(1):23-29.
[6] Goergen G, Kumar P L, Sankung S B, et al. First report of outbreaks of the fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda(JE Smith)(Lepidoptera, Noctuidae), a new alien invasive pest in West and Central Africa. PloS One, 2016, 11(10):e0165632.
[7] Early R, González-Moreno P, Murphy S T, et al. Forecasting the global extent of invasion of the cereal pest Spodoptera frugiperda, the fall armyworm. NeoBiota. 2018, 40:25-50.
[8]吴秋琳,姜玉英,吴孔明.草地贪夜蛾缅甸虫源迁入中国的路径分析.植物保护, 2019, 45(2):1-6.
[9] Phillips S J, Anderson R P, Schapire R E. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, 2006, 190(3/4):231-259.
[10]曹向锋,钱国良,胡白石,等.采用生态位模型预测黄顶菊在中国的潜在适生区.应用生态学报, 2010, 21(12):3063-3069.
[11] Pearson R G, Raxworthy C J, Nakamura M, et al. Predicting species distributions from small numbers of occurrence records:a test case using cryptic geckos in Madagascar.Journal of Biogeography, 2007, 34(1):102-117.
[12] Elith J, Phillips S J, Hastie T, et al. A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists. Diversity and Distributions,2011, 17(1):43-57.
[13] Abdelaal M, Fois M, Fenu G, et al. Using MaxEnt modeling to predict the potential distribution of the endemic plant Rosa arabica Crép. in Egypt. Ecological Informatics, 2019, 50:68-75.
[14]张路. MAXENT最大熵模型在预测物种潜在分布范围方面的应用.生物学通报, 2015, 50(11):9-12.
[15]齐国君,陈婷,高燕,等.基于Maxent的大洋臀纹粉蚧和南洋臀纹粉蚧在中国的适生区分析.环境昆虫学报, 2015, 37(2):219-223.
[16]朱耿平,原雪姣,范靖宇,等. MaxEnt模型参数设置对其所模拟物种地理分布和生态位的影响——以茶翅蝽为例.生物安全学报, 2018, 27(2):118-123.
[17]王运生,戴良英,谢丙炎,等. ROC曲线分析在评价入侵物种分布模型中的应用.生物多样性, 2007, 15(4):365-372.
[18]秦萌,何佳遥,赵守歧,等.基于Maxent模型的玉米褪绿斑驳病毒潜在地理分布研究.中国植保导刊, 2017(11):66-72.
[19] Swets J A. Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems.Science, 1988, 240(4857):1285-1293.
[20]齐国君,高燕,黄德超,等.基于MAXENT的稻水象甲在中国的入侵扩散动态及适生性分析.植物保护学报, 2012, 39(2):129-136.
[21]卢辉,钟义海,徐雪莲,等.基于MaxEnt模型的对粒材小蠹的适生性分析.热带作物学报, 2013, 34(11):2239-2245.
[22]宋光远,张俊华,杨定,等.长林小蠹在中国的适生区预测.植物检疫, 2018. 32(5):66-70.
[23]冯璐,刘建宏,李永和,等.基于Maxent模型的楚雄腮扁叶蜂潜在分布区预测.西部林业科学, 2013, 42(2):49-55.
[24] Wisz M S, Hijmans R J, Li J, et al. Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models. Diversity and distributions, 2008, 14(5):763-773.
[25] Dumas P, Legeai F, Lemaitre C, et al. Spodoptera frugiperda(Lepidoptera:Noctuidae)host-plant variants:two host strains or two distinct species? Genetica, 2015, 143(3):305-316.
[26]郭井菲,赵建周,何康来,等.警惕危险性害虫草地贪夜蛾入侵中国.植物保护, 2018(6):1-10.
[27]王茹琳,高晓清,王闫利,等.基于MaxEnt的非洲橘硬蓟马在全球及中国的潜在分布区预测.中国农学通报, 2014, 30(28):315-320.
[28]赵晶晶,高丹,冯纪年.基于Maxent模型的葡萄根瘤蚜在中国的适生性分析.西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2015, 43(11):99-104.