保险发展的经济增长效应研究综述
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摘要
保险发展对经济增长的影响在过去五十多年受到越来越广泛的关注。本文就20世纪60年代至2017年间保险对经济增长影响的相关文献进行梳理,从理论和实证两个方面归纳得出:理论上,保险发展的经济增长效应通过风险转移与金融中介两类职能实现,恶劣的制度环境可能引起经济增长负效应;实证方面利用不同国家或一个国家不同地区的时间序列、截面以及面板数据,研究保险与经济增长之间的短期与长期均衡关系,发现国家制度、经济发展与金融市场发展水平不同时,保险的经济增长效应存在显著差异。
The impacts of insurance development on economic growth have drawn great attention in the past fifty years. This article made a literature review on this subject from 1960 s to 2017,and summarized the following conclusions from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Theoretically,insurance prosperity could bring economic growth through its role in risk transfer and financial intermediation,but inadequate institutional environment could give rise to negative impacts. Empirically,the paper used time series,cross-sections,and panel data of different countries or different regions of a country to study the short-and long-term equilibrium relationship between insurance development and economic growth,and revealed that when government polices and economic development were incompatible with the development of financial markets,the insurance sector's impacts on economic growth varied significantly.
The impacts of insurance development on economic growth have drawn great attention in the past fifty years. This article made a literature review on this subject from 1960 s to 2017,and summarized the following conclusions from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Theoretically,insurance prosperity could bring economic growth through its role in risk transfer and financial intermediation,but inadequate institutional environment could give rise to negative impacts. Empirically,the paper used time series,cross-sections,and panel data of different countries or different regions of a country to study the short-and long-term equilibrium relationship between insurance development and economic growth,and revealed that when government polices and economic development were incompatible with the development of financial markets,the insurance sector's impacts on economic growth varied significantly.
引文
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[5]廖朴.财产保险对长期经济增长的促进作用研究——基于保险的风险转移与补偿功能视角[J].保险研究,2015,(06):32-46.
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[7]钱珍.经济增长、居民消费与保险发展的长期联动效应分析——基于var模型和脉冲响应函数的研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2008,(07):50-54.
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[9]邵全权.经济结构约束下中小保险公司发展对经济增长的影响[J].当代经济科学,2012,(02):25-34+125.
[10]邵全权.保险业市场结构、产寿险结构对“保险-经济增长”系统的影响[J].保险研究,2015,(12):3-20.
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[14]徐阳,屈广玉.保险消费、区域金融差异与经济增长的动态关系研究——基于非线性面板模型的实证分析[J].保险研究,2017,(03):39-55.
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(1)Proceedings of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development,first session,Vol.I,Final Act and Report,p.55.
(1)参考Lee,C.C.,et al.(2016):民主程度由Marshall等人进行的Polity IV数据集提取的政治制度,政治自由度是自由之家建立的政治权力指数;经济风险率由政治风险服务组编制的国际风险指南(ICRG)提取的经济风险度量,经济自由度、法律结构与安全来自Gwartney等人提取的世界经济自由度指数(2011年),法律规范程度来自Kaufmann等人建立的全球法治指标。
[2]胡宏兵,郭金龙.中国保险发展与经济增长关系检验——基于bootstrap仿真方法的实证分析[J].宏观经济研究,2010,(02):41-46+65.
[3]胡晓.虚拟经济发展对实体经济的影响:增长抑或结构调整[J].财经科学,2015,(2):52-62.
[4]黄薇.保险业发展的地区差异值得重视[J].财经科学,2006,(3):111-116.
[5]廖朴.财产保险对长期经济增长的促进作用研究——基于保险的风险转移与补偿功能视角[J].保险研究,2015,(06):32-46.
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[12]温健,何小伟,万润坤.保险发展对我国各省份经济增长的非线性影响:基于门限模型的实证检验[J].中央财经大学学报,2017,(06):30-37.
[13]吴洪,赵桂芹.保险发展、金融协同和经济增长——基于省级面板数据的研究[J].经济科学,2010,(03):61-72.
[14]徐阳,屈广玉.保险消费、区域金融差异与经济增长的动态关系研究——基于非线性面板模型的实证分析[J].保险研究,2017,(03):39-55.
[15]杨新顺,强卫,白斯元.保险发展、空间溢出与实体经济增长——基于空间面板杜宾模型的实证分析[J].保险研究,2017,(05):53-61.
[16]张韵.保险行业发展与经济增长——基于1983年-2012年27个OECD国家的数据[J].现代管理科学,2016,(12):33-36.
[17]赵进文,邢天才,熊磊.我国保险消费的经济增长效应[J].经济研究,2010,(S1):39-50.
[18]郑伟,刘永东.中国保险业区域发展比较研究——基于“保险基准深度比”的分析[J].经济科学,2008,(5):96-109.
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[20]Alhassan A L,Fiador V.Insurance-Growth Nexus in Ghana:An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Cointegration Approach[J].Review of Development Finance,2014,4(2):83-96.
[21]Apergis N,Filippidis I,Economidou C.Financial Deepening and Economic Growth Linkages:A Panel Data Analysis[J].Review of World Economics,2007,143(1):179-198.
[22]Arcand J L,Berkes E,Panizza U.Too Much Finance?[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2015,20(2):105-148.
[23]Arena M.Does Insurance Market Activity Promote Economic Growth?A Cross-Country Study for Industrialized and Developing Countries[J].Journal of Risk&Insurance,2008,75(4):921-946.
[24]Arestis P,Demetriades P.Financial Development and Economic Growth:Assessing the Evidence[J].Economic Journal,1997,107(442):783-799.
[25]Beck T,Levine R.Stock Markets,Banks,and Growth:Panel Evidence[J].Journal of Banking&Finance,2004,28(3):423-442.
[26]Beck T,Webb I.Economic,Demographic,and Institutional Determinants of Life Insurance Consumption across Countries[J].World Bank Economic Review,2003,17(1):51-88.
[27]Beck T H L,Levine R,Loayza N V.Financial Intermediary Development and Growth:Causes and Causality[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2000,46(1):31-77.
[28]Beenstock M,Dickinson G,Khajuria S.The Relationship between Property-Liability Insurance Premiums and Income:An International Analysis[J].Journal of Risk&Insurance,1988,55(2):259-272.
[29]Browne M J,Chung J W,Frees E W.International Property-Liability Insurance Consumption[J].Journal of Risk&Insurance,2000,67(1):2000.
[30]Browne M J,Kim K.An International Analysis of Life Insurance Demand[J].Journal of Risk&Insurance,1993,60(4):616.
[31]Butler R J,Gardner B D,Gardner H H.More Than Cost Shifting:Moral Hazard Lowers Productivity[J].Journal of Risk&Insurance,1998,65(4):671.
[32]Catalán M,Impavido G,Musalem A R.Contractual Savings or Stock Market Development Which Leads?[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2000.
[33]Chang T,Lee C C,Chang C H.Does Insurance Activity Promote Economic Growth?Further Evidence Based on Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Test[J].European Journal of Finance,2014,20(12):1187-1210.
[34]Chen P F,Lee C C,Lee C F.How Does the Development of the Life Insurance Market Affect Economic Growth?Some International Evidence[J].Journal of International Development,2012,24(7):865-893.
[35]Chaplin G(1999)Insuring corporate failure:credit default swaps.Paper presented at the AFIR(Actuarial Approach for Financial Risks)Colloquium in Tokyo,Japan,24-27 Aug 1999http://www.actuaries.org/AFIR/colloquia/Tokyo/papers.cfm.Cited 15 March 2007
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[38]Darrat A F.Are Financial Deepening and Economic Growth Causally Related?Another Look at the Evidence[J].International Economic Journal,1999,13(3):19-35.
[39]Das U,Davies N,Podpiera R.Insurance and Issues in Financial Soundness[J],2006,03(138).
[40]Demetriades P O,Hussein K A.Does Financial Development Cause Economic Growth?Time-Series Evidence from 16 Countries[J].Journal of Development Economics,1996,51(2):387-411.
[41]Effenberger D.Credit Derivatives:Effects on the Stability of Financial Markets[J],EU Monitor,2004,293:1-14
[42]Ehigiamusoe K U,Lean H H.Do Stock Markets Complement Banks in Promoting Economic Growth?Evidence from West African Countries[J].Journal of Applied Economic Sciences,2017,Volume XII(482):482-495.
[43]Esho N,Kirievsky A,Ward D,Zurbruegg R.Law and the Determinants of Property-Casualty Insurance[J].Journal of Risk&Insurance,2004,71(2):265-283.
[44]Fry M J.Money and Capital or Financial Deepening in Economic Development?[J].Journal of Money Credit&Banking,1980,10(4):107-113.
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(1)Proceedings of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development,first session,Vol.I,Final Act and Report,p.55.
(1)参考Lee,C.C.,et al.(2016):民主程度由Marshall等人进行的Polity IV数据集提取的政治制度,政治自由度是自由之家建立的政治权力指数;经济风险率由政治风险服务组编制的国际风险指南(ICRG)提取的经济风险度量,经济自由度、法律结构与安全来自Gwartney等人提取的世界经济自由度指数(2011年),法律规范程度来自Kaufmann等人建立的全球法治指标。