近期气候预测系统IAP-DecPreS对印度洋偶极子的回报技巧:全场同化和异常场同化的比较
|
摘要
印度洋偶极子(IOD)是热带印度洋年际变率主导模态之一,对于区域乃至全球气候有重要影响。准确预报IOD对于短期气候预测具有重要意义。中国科学院大气物理研究所最近建立了近期气候预测系统IAPDecPreS,其初始化方案采用"集合最优插值—分析增量更新"(EnOI-IAU)方案,能够同化观测的海洋次表层温度廓线资料。本文分析了IAP-DecPreS季节回报试验对IOD的回报技巧,重点比较了全场同化和异常场同化两种初始化策略下预测系统对IOD的回报技巧。分析表明,8月起报秋季IOD,无论从确定性预报还是概率性预报的角度,基于全场同化的回报试验技巧均高于异常场同化的回报试验。对于5月起报的秋季IOD,基于两种初始化策略的回报试验技巧相当。研究发现,全场同化策略相对于异常场的优势主要源于它提高了对伴随ENSO发生的IOD的预报技巧。ENSO遥强迫触发的热带东印度洋"风—蒸发—SST"正反馈过程是IOD发展和维持的关键。采用全场同化策略的回报结果能够更好地模拟出IOD发展过程中ENSO遥强迫产生的异常降水场和异常风场的空间分布特征;而采用异常场同化策略,模拟的异常降水场和风场偏差较大。导致两种初始化策略预测结果技巧差异的主要原因是,全场同化能够减小模式对热带印度洋气候平均态降水固有的模拟偏差,从而提升了热带印度洋对ENSO遥强迫响应的模拟能力。而异常场同化由于在同化过程中保持了模式固有的气候平均态,因此模拟的热带印度洋对ENSO遥强迫的响应存在与模式自由积分类似的模拟偏差。
The Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD), which is one of the dominant interannual variability modes of SST(sea surface temperature) in the tropical Indian Ocean, has striking impacts on regional and global climate. Thus, finding ways to achieve accurate and short-term climate predictions of IOD is an important subject of research. Recently, a near-term climate prediction system called IAP-DecPreS was constructed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences. It is based on a newly developed initialization scheme(EnOI-IAU), which can assimilate the observed ocean temperature profile records. In this paper, the authors compare the differences in skills of the IAPDecPreS for the IOD in fall(September-November) between the following two distinct initialization approaches:anomaly and full-field initializations. The results indicate that, for predictions starting from August, the hindcast runs based on the full-field initialization are more skilled at both deterministic and probabilistic predictions compared with those based on the anomaly initialization. For predictions starting from May, the predictive skill of the hindcasts based on the two initialization approaches are similar. Compared with the anomaly initialization, the full-field initialization is superior because it improves the predictive skill for the IOD events occurring together with ENSO. The windevaporation-SST positive feedback over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean, which is excited by the ENSO remote forcing,is key for the development and maintenance of the IOD. The hindcasts based on the full-field initialization can reproduce the spatial distributions of precipitation and wind anomalies associated with the ENSO during the IOD development stage. In contrast, for the hindcasts based on anomaly initialization, the biases of precipitation and wind anomalies are much larger. Full-field initialization can reduce the initial errors in the climatological precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean, thus improving the accuracies in simulating the response of precipitation and wind anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean to the ENSO remote forcing. In comparison, the anomaly initialization nearly does not change the model inherent climatology. Thus, the ENSO-related precipitation and wind anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean simulated by the hindcasts based on anomaly initialization show biases similar to those of the model's historical runs.
The Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD), which is one of the dominant interannual variability modes of SST(sea surface temperature) in the tropical Indian Ocean, has striking impacts on regional and global climate. Thus, finding ways to achieve accurate and short-term climate predictions of IOD is an important subject of research. Recently, a near-term climate prediction system called IAP-DecPreS was constructed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences. It is based on a newly developed initialization scheme(EnOI-IAU), which can assimilate the observed ocean temperature profile records. In this paper, the authors compare the differences in skills of the IAPDecPreS for the IOD in fall(September-November) between the following two distinct initialization approaches:anomaly and full-field initializations. The results indicate that, for predictions starting from August, the hindcast runs based on the full-field initialization are more skilled at both deterministic and probabilistic predictions compared with those based on the anomaly initialization. For predictions starting from May, the predictive skill of the hindcasts based on the two initialization approaches are similar. Compared with the anomaly initialization, the full-field initialization is superior because it improves the predictive skill for the IOD events occurring together with ENSO. The windevaporation-SST positive feedback over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean, which is excited by the ENSO remote forcing,is key for the development and maintenance of the IOD. The hindcasts based on the full-field initialization can reproduce the spatial distributions of precipitation and wind anomalies associated with the ENSO during the IOD development stage. In contrast, for the hindcasts based on anomaly initialization, the biases of precipitation and wind anomalies are much larger. Full-field initialization can reduce the initial errors in the climatological precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean, thus improving the accuracies in simulating the response of precipitation and wind anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean to the ENSO remote forcing. In comparison, the anomaly initialization nearly does not change the model inherent climatology. Thus, the ENSO-related precipitation and wind anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean simulated by the hindcasts based on anomaly initialization show biases similar to those of the model's historical runs.
引文
Adler R,Huffman G,Chang A,et al.2003.The version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project(GPCP)monthly precipitation analysis(1979-present)[J].J.Hydrometeor.,4(6):1147-1167.doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2
Annamalai H,Xie S P,McCreary J P,et al.2004.Impact of Indian Ocean Sea surface temperature on developing El Ni?o[J].J.Climate,18(2):302-319.doi:10.1175/JCLI-3268.1
Ashok K,Guan Z Y,Yamagata T.2003.Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Australian winter rainfall[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,30(15):1821.doi:10.1029/2003GL017926
Bao Q,Lin P F,Zhou T J,et al.2013.The flexible global oceanatmosphere-land system model,spectral version 2:FGOALS-s2[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,30(3):561-576.doi:10.1007/s00376-012-2113-9
Black E,Slingo J,Sperber K R.2003.An observational study of the relationship between excessively strong short rains in coastal East Africa and Indian Ocean SST[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,131(1):74-94.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0074:AOSOTR>2.0.CO;2
Dee D P,Uppala S M,Simmons A J,et al.2011.The ERA-Interim reanalysis:Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system[J].Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.,137(656):553-597.doi:10.1002/qj.828
丁一汇.2011.季节气候预测的进展和前景[J].气象科技进展,1(3):14-27.Ding Y H.2011.Progress and prospects of seasonal climate prediction[J].Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology(in Chinese),1(3):14-27.
Good S A,Martin M J,Rayner N A.2013.EN4:Quality controlled ocean temperature and salinity profiles and monthly objective analyses with uncertainty estimates[J].J.Geophys.Res.Oceans,118(12):6704-6716.doi:10.1002/2013JC009067
Gualdi S,Guilyardi E,Navarra A,et al.2003.The interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean as simulated by a CGCM[J].Climate Dyn.,20(6):567-582.doi:10.1007/s00382-002-0295-z
Iizuka S,Matsuura T,Yamagata T.2000.The Indian Ocean SST dipole simulated in a coupled general circulation model[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,27(20):3369-3372.doi:10.1029/2000GL011484
Kripalani R H,Oh J H,Chaudhari H S.2010.Delayed influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole mode on the East Asia-West Pacific monsoon:Possible mechanism[J].International Journal of Climatology,30(2):197-209.doi:10.1002/joc.1890.
Li T,Wang B,Chang C P,et al.2003.A theory for the Indian Ocean Dipole-zonal mode[J].J.Atmos.Sci.,60(17):2119-2135.doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<2119:ATFTIO>2.0.CO;2
Liu H F,Tang Y M,Chen D K,et al.2017.Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the coupled models[J].Climate Dyn.,48(5-6):2005-2024.doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3187-3
Loschnigg J,Meehl G A,Webster P J,et al.2003.The Asian monsoon,the tropospheric biennial oscillation,and the Indian Ocean zonal mode in the NCAR CSM[J].J.Climate,16(11):1617-1642.doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<1617:TAMTTB>2.0.CO;2
Luo J J,Masson S,Behera S,et al.2007.Experimental forecasts of the Indian Ocean Dipole using a coupled OAGCM[J].J.Climate,20(10):2178-2190.doi:10.1175/JCLI4132.1
Magnusson L,Alonso-Balmaseda M,Corti S,et al.2013.Evaluation of forecast strategies for seasonal and decadal forecasts in presence of systematic model errors[J].Climate Dyn.,41(9-10):2393-2409.doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1599-2
Mason I B.1982.A model for assessment of weather forecasts[J].Australian Meteorological Magazine,30(4):291-303.
Mason S J,Graham N E.1999.Conditional probabilities,relative operating characteristics,and relative operating levels[J].Wea.Forecasting,14(5):713-725.doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1999)014<0713:CPROCA>2.0.CO;2
Meyers G,McIntosh P,Pigot L,et al.2007.The years of El Ni?o,La Ni?a,and interactions with the tropical Indian Ocean[J].J.Climate,20(13):2872-2880.doi:10.1175/JCLI4152.1
Rao S A,Masson S,Luo J J,et al.2007.Termination of Indian Ocean Dipole events in a coupled general circulation model[J].J.Climate,20(13):3018-3035.doi:10.1175/JCLI4164.1
Rayner N A,Parker D E,Horton E B,et al.2003.Global analyses of sea surface temperature,sea ice,and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century[J].J.Geophys.Res.Atmos.,108(D14):4407.doi:10.1029/2002JD002670
Saji N H,Yamagata T.2003.Possible impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole mode events on global climate[J].Climate Research,25(2):151-169.doi:10.3354/cr025151
Saji N H,Goswami B N,Vinayachandran P N,et al.1999.A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean[J].Nature,401(6751):360-363.doi:10.1038/43854
Shi L,Hendon H H,Alves O,et al.2012.How predictable is the Indian Ocean Dipole?[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,140(12):3867-3884.doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00001.1
Smith D M,Eade R,Pohlmann H.2013.A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction[J].Climate Dyn.,41(11-12):3325-3338.doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1683-2
Song Q,Vecchi G A,Rosati A J.2008.Predictability of the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies in the GFDL coupled model[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,35(2):L02701.doi:10.1029/2007GL031966
Stuecker M F,Timmermann A,Jin F F,et al.2017.Revisiting ENSO/Indian Ocean Dipole phase relationships[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,44(5):2481-2492.doi:10.1002/2016GL072308
Ummenhofer C C,England M H,McIntosh P C,et al.2009.What causes southeast Australia's worst droughts?[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,36(4):L04706.doi:10.1029/2008GL036801
Vinayachandran P N,Iizuka S,Yamagata T.2002.Indian Ocean Dipole mode events in an ocean general circulation model[J].Deep Sea Research Part II:Topical Studies in Oceanography,49(7-8):1573-1596.doi:10.1016/S0967-0645(01)00157-6
Wajsowicz R C.2005.Forecasting extreme events in the tropical Indian Ocean sector climate[J].Dyn.Atmos.Oceans,39(1-2):137-151.doi:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2004.10.012
Wajsowicz R C.2007.Seasonal-to-interannual forecasting of tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies:Potential predictability and barriers[J].J.Climate,20(13):3320-3343.doi:10.1175/JCLI4162.1
Wang X,Wang C Z.2014.Different impacts of various El Ni?o events on the Indian Ocean Dipole[J].Climate Dyn.,42(3-4):991-1005.doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1711-2
Webster P J,Moore A M,Loschnigg J P,et al.1999.Coupled oceanatmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997-98[J].Nature,401(6751):356-360.doi:10.1038/43848
吴波,周天军,孙倩.2017.海洋模式初始化同化方案对IAP近期气候预测系统回报试验技巧的影响[J].地球科学进展,32(4):342-352.Wu B,Zhou T J,Sun Q.2017.Impacts of initialization schemes of oceanic states on the predictive skills of the IAP nearterm climate prediction system[J].Advances in Earth Science(in Chinese),32(4):342-352.doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2017.04.0342
Wu B,Zhou T J,Zheng F.2018.EnOI-IAU initialization scheme designed for decadal climate prediction system IAP-DecPreS[J].Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,10(2):342-356.doi:10.1002/2017MS001132
吴捷,任宏利,张帅,等.2017.BCC二代气候系统模式的季节预测评估和可预报性分析[J].大气科学,41(6):1300-1315.Wu J,Ren H L,Zhang S,et al.2017.Evaluation and predictability analysis of seasonal prediction by BCC second-generation climate system model[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),41(6):1300-1315.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1703.16256
Yamagata T,Behera S K,Luo J J,et al.2004.Coupled oceanatmosphere variability in the tropical Indian Ocean[M]//Wang C,Xie S P,Carton J A.Earth's Climate:The Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction.Washington:American Geophysical Union,189-211.doi:10.1029/147GM12
Yu J Y,Lau K M.2005.Contrasting Indian Ocean SST variability with and without ENSO influence:A coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMstudy[J].Meteor.Atmos.Phys.,90(3-4):179-191.doi:10.1007/s00703-004-0094-7
Zhang W J,Wang Y L,Jin F F,et al.2015.Impact of different El Ni?o types on the El Ni?o/IOD relationship[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,42(20):8570-8576.doi:10.1002/2015GL065703
Zhao M,Hendon H H.2009.Representation and prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the POAMA seasonal forecast model[J].Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.,135(639):337-352.doi:10.1002/qj.370
周天军,吴波.2017.年代际气候预测问题:科学前沿与挑战[J].地球科学进展,32(4):331-341.Zhou T J,Wu B.2017.Decadal climate prediction:Scientific frontier and challenge[J].Advances in Earth Science(in Chinese),32(4):331-341.doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2017.04.0331
Zhou T J,Yu Y Q,Liu Y M,et al.2014.Flexible Global OceanAtmosphere-Land System Model:A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community[M].Berlin Heidelberg:SpringerVerlag,483:217-224.doi:10.1007/978-3-642-41801-3
Zubair L,Rao S A,Yamagata T.2003.Modulation of Sri Lankan Maha rainfall by the Indian Ocean Dipole[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,30(2):1063.doi:10.1029/2002GL015639
Annamalai H,Xie S P,McCreary J P,et al.2004.Impact of Indian Ocean Sea surface temperature on developing El Ni?o[J].J.Climate,18(2):302-319.doi:10.1175/JCLI-3268.1
Ashok K,Guan Z Y,Yamagata T.2003.Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Australian winter rainfall[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,30(15):1821.doi:10.1029/2003GL017926
Bao Q,Lin P F,Zhou T J,et al.2013.The flexible global oceanatmosphere-land system model,spectral version 2:FGOALS-s2[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,30(3):561-576.doi:10.1007/s00376-012-2113-9
Black E,Slingo J,Sperber K R.2003.An observational study of the relationship between excessively strong short rains in coastal East Africa and Indian Ocean SST[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,131(1):74-94.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0074:AOSOTR>2.0.CO;2
Dee D P,Uppala S M,Simmons A J,et al.2011.The ERA-Interim reanalysis:Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system[J].Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.,137(656):553-597.doi:10.1002/qj.828
丁一汇.2011.季节气候预测的进展和前景[J].气象科技进展,1(3):14-27.Ding Y H.2011.Progress and prospects of seasonal climate prediction[J].Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology(in Chinese),1(3):14-27.
Good S A,Martin M J,Rayner N A.2013.EN4:Quality controlled ocean temperature and salinity profiles and monthly objective analyses with uncertainty estimates[J].J.Geophys.Res.Oceans,118(12):6704-6716.doi:10.1002/2013JC009067
Gualdi S,Guilyardi E,Navarra A,et al.2003.The interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean as simulated by a CGCM[J].Climate Dyn.,20(6):567-582.doi:10.1007/s00382-002-0295-z
Iizuka S,Matsuura T,Yamagata T.2000.The Indian Ocean SST dipole simulated in a coupled general circulation model[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,27(20):3369-3372.doi:10.1029/2000GL011484
Kripalani R H,Oh J H,Chaudhari H S.2010.Delayed influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole mode on the East Asia-West Pacific monsoon:Possible mechanism[J].International Journal of Climatology,30(2):197-209.doi:10.1002/joc.1890.
Li T,Wang B,Chang C P,et al.2003.A theory for the Indian Ocean Dipole-zonal mode[J].J.Atmos.Sci.,60(17):2119-2135.doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<2119:ATFTIO>2.0.CO;2
Liu H F,Tang Y M,Chen D K,et al.2017.Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the coupled models[J].Climate Dyn.,48(5-6):2005-2024.doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3187-3
Loschnigg J,Meehl G A,Webster P J,et al.2003.The Asian monsoon,the tropospheric biennial oscillation,and the Indian Ocean zonal mode in the NCAR CSM[J].J.Climate,16(11):1617-1642.doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<1617:TAMTTB>2.0.CO;2
Luo J J,Masson S,Behera S,et al.2007.Experimental forecasts of the Indian Ocean Dipole using a coupled OAGCM[J].J.Climate,20(10):2178-2190.doi:10.1175/JCLI4132.1
Magnusson L,Alonso-Balmaseda M,Corti S,et al.2013.Evaluation of forecast strategies for seasonal and decadal forecasts in presence of systematic model errors[J].Climate Dyn.,41(9-10):2393-2409.doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1599-2
Mason I B.1982.A model for assessment of weather forecasts[J].Australian Meteorological Magazine,30(4):291-303.
Mason S J,Graham N E.1999.Conditional probabilities,relative operating characteristics,and relative operating levels[J].Wea.Forecasting,14(5):713-725.doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1999)014<0713:CPROCA>2.0.CO;2
Meyers G,McIntosh P,Pigot L,et al.2007.The years of El Ni?o,La Ni?a,and interactions with the tropical Indian Ocean[J].J.Climate,20(13):2872-2880.doi:10.1175/JCLI4152.1
Rao S A,Masson S,Luo J J,et al.2007.Termination of Indian Ocean Dipole events in a coupled general circulation model[J].J.Climate,20(13):3018-3035.doi:10.1175/JCLI4164.1
Rayner N A,Parker D E,Horton E B,et al.2003.Global analyses of sea surface temperature,sea ice,and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century[J].J.Geophys.Res.Atmos.,108(D14):4407.doi:10.1029/2002JD002670
Saji N H,Yamagata T.2003.Possible impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole mode events on global climate[J].Climate Research,25(2):151-169.doi:10.3354/cr025151
Saji N H,Goswami B N,Vinayachandran P N,et al.1999.A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean[J].Nature,401(6751):360-363.doi:10.1038/43854
Shi L,Hendon H H,Alves O,et al.2012.How predictable is the Indian Ocean Dipole?[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,140(12):3867-3884.doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00001.1
Smith D M,Eade R,Pohlmann H.2013.A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction[J].Climate Dyn.,41(11-12):3325-3338.doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1683-2
Song Q,Vecchi G A,Rosati A J.2008.Predictability of the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies in the GFDL coupled model[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,35(2):L02701.doi:10.1029/2007GL031966
Stuecker M F,Timmermann A,Jin F F,et al.2017.Revisiting ENSO/Indian Ocean Dipole phase relationships[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,44(5):2481-2492.doi:10.1002/2016GL072308
Ummenhofer C C,England M H,McIntosh P C,et al.2009.What causes southeast Australia's worst droughts?[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,36(4):L04706.doi:10.1029/2008GL036801
Vinayachandran P N,Iizuka S,Yamagata T.2002.Indian Ocean Dipole mode events in an ocean general circulation model[J].Deep Sea Research Part II:Topical Studies in Oceanography,49(7-8):1573-1596.doi:10.1016/S0967-0645(01)00157-6
Wajsowicz R C.2005.Forecasting extreme events in the tropical Indian Ocean sector climate[J].Dyn.Atmos.Oceans,39(1-2):137-151.doi:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2004.10.012
Wajsowicz R C.2007.Seasonal-to-interannual forecasting of tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies:Potential predictability and barriers[J].J.Climate,20(13):3320-3343.doi:10.1175/JCLI4162.1
Wang X,Wang C Z.2014.Different impacts of various El Ni?o events on the Indian Ocean Dipole[J].Climate Dyn.,42(3-4):991-1005.doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1711-2
Webster P J,Moore A M,Loschnigg J P,et al.1999.Coupled oceanatmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997-98[J].Nature,401(6751):356-360.doi:10.1038/43848
吴波,周天军,孙倩.2017.海洋模式初始化同化方案对IAP近期气候预测系统回报试验技巧的影响[J].地球科学进展,32(4):342-352.Wu B,Zhou T J,Sun Q.2017.Impacts of initialization schemes of oceanic states on the predictive skills of the IAP nearterm climate prediction system[J].Advances in Earth Science(in Chinese),32(4):342-352.doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2017.04.0342
Wu B,Zhou T J,Zheng F.2018.EnOI-IAU initialization scheme designed for decadal climate prediction system IAP-DecPreS[J].Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,10(2):342-356.doi:10.1002/2017MS001132
吴捷,任宏利,张帅,等.2017.BCC二代气候系统模式的季节预测评估和可预报性分析[J].大气科学,41(6):1300-1315.Wu J,Ren H L,Zhang S,et al.2017.Evaluation and predictability analysis of seasonal prediction by BCC second-generation climate system model[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),41(6):1300-1315.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1703.16256
Yamagata T,Behera S K,Luo J J,et al.2004.Coupled oceanatmosphere variability in the tropical Indian Ocean[M]//Wang C,Xie S P,Carton J A.Earth's Climate:The Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction.Washington:American Geophysical Union,189-211.doi:10.1029/147GM12
Yu J Y,Lau K M.2005.Contrasting Indian Ocean SST variability with and without ENSO influence:A coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMstudy[J].Meteor.Atmos.Phys.,90(3-4):179-191.doi:10.1007/s00703-004-0094-7
Zhang W J,Wang Y L,Jin F F,et al.2015.Impact of different El Ni?o types on the El Ni?o/IOD relationship[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,42(20):8570-8576.doi:10.1002/2015GL065703
Zhao M,Hendon H H.2009.Representation and prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the POAMA seasonal forecast model[J].Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.,135(639):337-352.doi:10.1002/qj.370
周天军,吴波.2017.年代际气候预测问题:科学前沿与挑战[J].地球科学进展,32(4):331-341.Zhou T J,Wu B.2017.Decadal climate prediction:Scientific frontier and challenge[J].Advances in Earth Science(in Chinese),32(4):331-341.doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2017.04.0331
Zhou T J,Yu Y Q,Liu Y M,et al.2014.Flexible Global OceanAtmosphere-Land System Model:A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community[M].Berlin Heidelberg:SpringerVerlag,483:217-224.doi:10.1007/978-3-642-41801-3
Zubair L,Rao S A,Yamagata T.2003.Modulation of Sri Lankan Maha rainfall by the Indian Ocean Dipole[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,30(2):1063.doi:10.1029/2002GL015639