母国经济政策不确定性、融资约束与企业对外直接投资
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摘要
本文以2004—2014年中国A股上市企业为样本,采用经济政策不确定性指数,探究了母国经济政策不确定性对企业对外直接投资决策的影响。研究结果表明:母国经济政策不确定性会对企业对外直接投资产生抑制作用,且这一负面的影响效应在融资约束较强的企业中更为明显;在考虑企业国际化发展战略后,发现母国经济政策不确定性的增加还会对企业对外直接投资的深度产生抑制作用。由此,本文进一步拓展了经济政策不确定性和企业对外直接投资领域的相关研究,为政府制定加快促进企业对外直接投资的政策措施以及企业进一步增强自身防范与化解外部风险的能力提供了重要的理论指导。
Using Chinese A-share listed companies' data from 2004 to 2014,this study investigated the effect of home country' s economic policy uncertainty on outward foreign direct investment( OFDI) by using the economic policy uncertainty index constructed by Baker et al.( 2013). This study finds that economic policy uncertainty of home country has a negative effect on Chinese outward foreign direct investment. This association is more pronounced with stricter financing constraints. After considering the international development strategy,this study finds that the increase of economic policy uncertainty of home country has an inhibitory effect on the depth of overseas investment. This study expands the literature on the economic policy uncertainty and outward foreign direct investment,and provides implications for how economic policies play a more effective role in promoting OFDI and how OFDI enterprises enhance their ability to respond to external risks.
Using Chinese A-share listed companies' data from 2004 to 2014,this study investigated the effect of home country' s economic policy uncertainty on outward foreign direct investment( OFDI) by using the economic policy uncertainty index constructed by Baker et al.( 2013). This study finds that economic policy uncertainty of home country has a negative effect on Chinese outward foreign direct investment. This association is more pronounced with stricter financing constraints. After considering the international development strategy,this study finds that the increase of economic policy uncertainty of home country has an inhibitory effect on the depth of overseas investment. This study expands the literature on the economic policy uncertainty and outward foreign direct investment,and provides implications for how economic policies play a more effective role in promoting OFDI and how OFDI enterprises enhance their ability to respond to external risks.
引文
[1]PASTOR,L VERONESI,P. Political Uncertainty and Risk Premia[J]. Journal of Financial Economics,2013,110(3):520-545.
[2]GULEN,H ION,M. Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment[J]. The Review of Financial Studies,2016(293):523-564.
[3]TIAN,X,YE,K. How Does Policy Uncertainty Affect Venture Capital?[R]. Working Paper,2018.
[4]王红建,李青原,邢斐.经济政策不确定性、现金持有水平及其市场价值[J].金融研究,2014(9):53-68.
[5]鲁桐,党印.投资者保护、行政环境与技术创新:跨国经验证据[J].世界经济,2015,38(10):99-124.
[6]宗芳宇,路江涌,武常岐.双边投资协定、制度环境和企业对外直接投资区位选择[J].经济研究,2012,47(5):71-82+146.
[7]孙乾坤.中国对“一带一路”国家直接投资的区位选择研究[D].对外经济贸易大学,2017.
[8]裴长洪,郑文.国家特定优势:国际投资理论的补充解释[J].经济研究,2011,46(11):21-35.
[9]陈胤默,孙乾坤,张晓瑜.孔子学院促进中国企业对外直接投资吗———基于“一带一路”沿线国家面板数据的分析[J].国际贸易问题,2017(8):84-95.
[10]魏浩,何晓琳,赵春明.制度水平、制度差距与发展中国家的对外贸易发展———来自全球31个发展中国家的国际经验[J].南开经济研究,2010(5):18-34.
[11]张莹,朱小明.经济政策不确定性对出口质量和价格的影响研究[J].国际贸易问题,2018(5):12-25.
[12]汝毅,郭晨曦,吕萍.高管股权激励、约束机制与对外直接投资速率[J].财经研究,2016,42(3):4-15.
[13]KISS,A N DANIS,W M. Country Institutional Context,Social Networks,and New Venture Internationalization Speed[J].European Management Journal,2008,26(6):388-399.
[14]GE,G L WANG,H Q. The Impact of Network Relationships on Internationalization Process:An Empirical Study of Chinese Private Enterprises[J].Asia Pacific Journal of Management,2013,30(4):1169-1189.
[15]饶品贵,岳衡,姜国华.经济政策不确定性与企业投资行为研究[J].世界经济,2017,40(2):27-51.
[16]FENG,Y. Political Freedom,Political Instability,and Policy Uncertainty:A Study of Political Institutions and Private Investment in Developing Countries[J]. International Studies Quarterly,2001,45(2):271-294.
[17]QUAN,V L,ZAK,P J. Political Risk and Capital Flight[J].Journal of International Money and Finance. 2006,25(2):308-329.
[18]PANOUSI,V,PAPANIKOLAOU,D. Investment,Idiosyncratic Risk,and Ownership[J],Journal of Finance,2012,67(3):1113-1143.
[19]BHATTACHARYA,U,HSU,P,TIAN,X,XU,Y. What Affects Innovation More:Policy Or Policy Uncertainty?[J]. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,2017,52(5):1869-1901.
[20]BONAIME,A A,GULEN,H,ION,M. Does Policy Uncertainty Affect Mergers and Acquisitions?[R].Working Paper,2016.
[21]杨永聪,李正辉.经济政策不确定性驱动了中国OFDI的增长吗———基于动态面板数据的系统GMM估计[J].国际贸易问题,2018(3):138-148.
[22]NGUYEN Q,KIM T,PAPANASTASSIOU M. Policy Uncertainty,Derivatives Use,and Firm-level FDI[J]. Journal of International Business Studies,2018,49(1):96-126.
[23]BUCKLEY,P J,CLEGG,L J,CROSS,A R,LIU,X,VOSS,H,ZHENG,P. The Determinants of Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment[J]. Journal of International Business Studies,2009,40(2):353.
[24]WANG C,HONG J,KAFOUROS M,et al. Exploring the Role of Government Involvement in Outward FDI from Emerging Economies[J]. Journal of International Business Studies,2012,43(7):655-676.
[25]LUO Y,XUE Q,HAN B. How Emerging Market Governments Promote Outward FDI:Experience from China[J].Journal of World Business,2010,45(1):68-79.
[26]郑立东,程小可,姚立杰.经济政策不确定性、行业周期性与现金持有动态调整[J].中央财经大学学报,2014(12):68-78.
[27]BAUM C F,CAGLAYAN M,OZKAN N. The Second Moments Matter:The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on the Allocation of Loanable Funds[J]. Economics Letters,2009,102(2):87-89.
[28]纪洋,王旭,谭语嫣,等.经济政策不确定性、政府隐性担保与企业杠杆率分化[J].经济学(季刊),2018,17(2):449-470.
[29]蒋腾,张永冀,赵晓丽.经济政策不确定性与企业债务融资[J].管理评论,2018,30(3):29-39.
[30]COLAK G,DURNEV A,QIAN Y. Political Uncertainty and IPO Activity:Evidence from US Gubernatorial Elections[J].Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,2017,52(6):2523-2564.
[31]BUCH C M,KESTERNICH I,LIPPONER A,et al. Financial Constraints and the Margins of FDI[J]. Law Discussion Papers,2009,150(2):393-420.
[32]BUCH,C M,KESTERNICH,I,LIPPONER,A,SCHNITZER,M. Financial Constraints and Foreign Direct Investment:Firm-level Evidence[J]. Review of World Economics,2014,150(2):393-420.
[33]王碧珺,谭语嫣,余淼杰,等.融资约束是否抑制了中国民营企业对外直接投资[J].世界经济,2015,38(12):54-78.
[34]刘莉亚,何彦林,王照飞,等.融资约束会影响中国企业对外直接投资吗———基于微观视角的理论和实证分析[J].金融研究,2015(8):124-140.
[35]BAKER,S,BLOOM,N,DAVIS,S J,WANG,X. A Measure of Economic Policy Uncertainty for China[J].Working Paper,University of Chicago,2013.
[36]HADLOCK,C J,PIERCE,J R. New Evidence on Measuring Financial Constraints:Moving Beyond the KZ Index[J]. The Review of Financial Studies,2010,23(5):1909-1940.
[37]孟庆斌,师倩.宏观经济政策不确定性对企业研发的影响:理论与经验研究[J].世界经济,2017,40(9):75-98.
[38]GUAR A S,MA X,DING Z. Home Country Supportiveness/unfavorableness and Outward Foreign Direct Investment from China[J]. Journal of International Business Studies,2018,49(3):324-345.
[39]BAKER,S R,BLOOM,N,DAVIS,S J. Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2016,131(4):1593-1636.
[40]CASILLAS,J C,ACEDO,F J. Speed in the Internationalization Process of the Firm[J].International Journal of Management Reviews,2013,15(1):15-29.
[41]ALESSANDRI T M,SETH A. The Effects of Managerial Ownership on International and Business Diversification:Balancing Incentives and Risks[J]. Strategic Management Journal,2014,35(13):2064-2075.
[42]KEMPF A,RUENZI S,THIELE T. Employment Risk,Compensation Incentives,and Managerial Risk Taking:Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2009,92(1):92-108.
[43]LOW A. Managerial Risk-taking Behavior and Equity-based Compensation[J]. Journal of Financial Economics,2009,92(3):470-490.
[44]刘志远,王存峰,彭涛,等.政策不确定性与企业风险承担:机遇预期效应还是损失规避效应[J].南开管理评论,2017,20(6):15-27.
[45]VERMEULEN F,BARKEMA H. Pace,Rhythm,and Scope:Process Dependence in Building A Profitable Multinational Corporation[J]. Strategic Management Journal,2002,23(7):637-653.
[46]DE LOECKER. Do Exports Generate Higher Productivity? Evidence from Slovenia[J]. Journal of International Economics,2007,73(1):69-98.
[47]WANG,Y,CHEN,C R,HUANG,Y S. Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment:Evidence from China[J]. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal,2014,(26):227-243.
[48]连玉君,彭方平,苏治.融资约束与流动性管理行为[J].金融研究,2010(10):158-171.
[49]XU N,XU X,YUAN Q. Political Connections,Financing Friction,and Corporate Investment:Evidence from Chinese Listed Family Firms[J]. European Financial Management,2013,19(4):675-702.
(1)数据来源:《2017年中国对外直接投资统计公报》。
(1)数据来源:http://www.policyuncertainty.com/index.html。
(1)受篇幅所限,回归结果在此不予列出,如有需要,可向作者索取。
[2]GULEN,H ION,M. Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment[J]. The Review of Financial Studies,2016(293):523-564.
[3]TIAN,X,YE,K. How Does Policy Uncertainty Affect Venture Capital?[R]. Working Paper,2018.
[4]王红建,李青原,邢斐.经济政策不确定性、现金持有水平及其市场价值[J].金融研究,2014(9):53-68.
[5]鲁桐,党印.投资者保护、行政环境与技术创新:跨国经验证据[J].世界经济,2015,38(10):99-124.
[6]宗芳宇,路江涌,武常岐.双边投资协定、制度环境和企业对外直接投资区位选择[J].经济研究,2012,47(5):71-82+146.
[7]孙乾坤.中国对“一带一路”国家直接投资的区位选择研究[D].对外经济贸易大学,2017.
[8]裴长洪,郑文.国家特定优势:国际投资理论的补充解释[J].经济研究,2011,46(11):21-35.
[9]陈胤默,孙乾坤,张晓瑜.孔子学院促进中国企业对外直接投资吗———基于“一带一路”沿线国家面板数据的分析[J].国际贸易问题,2017(8):84-95.
[10]魏浩,何晓琳,赵春明.制度水平、制度差距与发展中国家的对外贸易发展———来自全球31个发展中国家的国际经验[J].南开经济研究,2010(5):18-34.
[11]张莹,朱小明.经济政策不确定性对出口质量和价格的影响研究[J].国际贸易问题,2018(5):12-25.
[12]汝毅,郭晨曦,吕萍.高管股权激励、约束机制与对外直接投资速率[J].财经研究,2016,42(3):4-15.
[13]KISS,A N DANIS,W M. Country Institutional Context,Social Networks,and New Venture Internationalization Speed[J].European Management Journal,2008,26(6):388-399.
[14]GE,G L WANG,H Q. The Impact of Network Relationships on Internationalization Process:An Empirical Study of Chinese Private Enterprises[J].Asia Pacific Journal of Management,2013,30(4):1169-1189.
[15]饶品贵,岳衡,姜国华.经济政策不确定性与企业投资行为研究[J].世界经济,2017,40(2):27-51.
[16]FENG,Y. Political Freedom,Political Instability,and Policy Uncertainty:A Study of Political Institutions and Private Investment in Developing Countries[J]. International Studies Quarterly,2001,45(2):271-294.
[17]QUAN,V L,ZAK,P J. Political Risk and Capital Flight[J].Journal of International Money and Finance. 2006,25(2):308-329.
[18]PANOUSI,V,PAPANIKOLAOU,D. Investment,Idiosyncratic Risk,and Ownership[J],Journal of Finance,2012,67(3):1113-1143.
[19]BHATTACHARYA,U,HSU,P,TIAN,X,XU,Y. What Affects Innovation More:Policy Or Policy Uncertainty?[J]. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,2017,52(5):1869-1901.
[20]BONAIME,A A,GULEN,H,ION,M. Does Policy Uncertainty Affect Mergers and Acquisitions?[R].Working Paper,2016.
[21]杨永聪,李正辉.经济政策不确定性驱动了中国OFDI的增长吗———基于动态面板数据的系统GMM估计[J].国际贸易问题,2018(3):138-148.
[22]NGUYEN Q,KIM T,PAPANASTASSIOU M. Policy Uncertainty,Derivatives Use,and Firm-level FDI[J]. Journal of International Business Studies,2018,49(1):96-126.
[23]BUCKLEY,P J,CLEGG,L J,CROSS,A R,LIU,X,VOSS,H,ZHENG,P. The Determinants of Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment[J]. Journal of International Business Studies,2009,40(2):353.
[24]WANG C,HONG J,KAFOUROS M,et al. Exploring the Role of Government Involvement in Outward FDI from Emerging Economies[J]. Journal of International Business Studies,2012,43(7):655-676.
[25]LUO Y,XUE Q,HAN B. How Emerging Market Governments Promote Outward FDI:Experience from China[J].Journal of World Business,2010,45(1):68-79.
[26]郑立东,程小可,姚立杰.经济政策不确定性、行业周期性与现金持有动态调整[J].中央财经大学学报,2014(12):68-78.
[27]BAUM C F,CAGLAYAN M,OZKAN N. The Second Moments Matter:The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on the Allocation of Loanable Funds[J]. Economics Letters,2009,102(2):87-89.
[28]纪洋,王旭,谭语嫣,等.经济政策不确定性、政府隐性担保与企业杠杆率分化[J].经济学(季刊),2018,17(2):449-470.
[29]蒋腾,张永冀,赵晓丽.经济政策不确定性与企业债务融资[J].管理评论,2018,30(3):29-39.
[30]COLAK G,DURNEV A,QIAN Y. Political Uncertainty and IPO Activity:Evidence from US Gubernatorial Elections[J].Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,2017,52(6):2523-2564.
[31]BUCH C M,KESTERNICH I,LIPPONER A,et al. Financial Constraints and the Margins of FDI[J]. Law Discussion Papers,2009,150(2):393-420.
[32]BUCH,C M,KESTERNICH,I,LIPPONER,A,SCHNITZER,M. Financial Constraints and Foreign Direct Investment:Firm-level Evidence[J]. Review of World Economics,2014,150(2):393-420.
[33]王碧珺,谭语嫣,余淼杰,等.融资约束是否抑制了中国民营企业对外直接投资[J].世界经济,2015,38(12):54-78.
[34]刘莉亚,何彦林,王照飞,等.融资约束会影响中国企业对外直接投资吗———基于微观视角的理论和实证分析[J].金融研究,2015(8):124-140.
[35]BAKER,S,BLOOM,N,DAVIS,S J,WANG,X. A Measure of Economic Policy Uncertainty for China[J].Working Paper,University of Chicago,2013.
[36]HADLOCK,C J,PIERCE,J R. New Evidence on Measuring Financial Constraints:Moving Beyond the KZ Index[J]. The Review of Financial Studies,2010,23(5):1909-1940.
[37]孟庆斌,师倩.宏观经济政策不确定性对企业研发的影响:理论与经验研究[J].世界经济,2017,40(9):75-98.
[38]GUAR A S,MA X,DING Z. Home Country Supportiveness/unfavorableness and Outward Foreign Direct Investment from China[J]. Journal of International Business Studies,2018,49(3):324-345.
[39]BAKER,S R,BLOOM,N,DAVIS,S J. Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2016,131(4):1593-1636.
[40]CASILLAS,J C,ACEDO,F J. Speed in the Internationalization Process of the Firm[J].International Journal of Management Reviews,2013,15(1):15-29.
[41]ALESSANDRI T M,SETH A. The Effects of Managerial Ownership on International and Business Diversification:Balancing Incentives and Risks[J]. Strategic Management Journal,2014,35(13):2064-2075.
[42]KEMPF A,RUENZI S,THIELE T. Employment Risk,Compensation Incentives,and Managerial Risk Taking:Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2009,92(1):92-108.
[43]LOW A. Managerial Risk-taking Behavior and Equity-based Compensation[J]. Journal of Financial Economics,2009,92(3):470-490.
[44]刘志远,王存峰,彭涛,等.政策不确定性与企业风险承担:机遇预期效应还是损失规避效应[J].南开管理评论,2017,20(6):15-27.
[45]VERMEULEN F,BARKEMA H. Pace,Rhythm,and Scope:Process Dependence in Building A Profitable Multinational Corporation[J]. Strategic Management Journal,2002,23(7):637-653.
[46]DE LOECKER. Do Exports Generate Higher Productivity? Evidence from Slovenia[J]. Journal of International Economics,2007,73(1):69-98.
[47]WANG,Y,CHEN,C R,HUANG,Y S. Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment:Evidence from China[J]. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal,2014,(26):227-243.
[48]连玉君,彭方平,苏治.融资约束与流动性管理行为[J].金融研究,2010(10):158-171.
[49]XU N,XU X,YUAN Q. Political Connections,Financing Friction,and Corporate Investment:Evidence from Chinese Listed Family Firms[J]. European Financial Management,2013,19(4):675-702.
(1)数据来源:《2017年中国对外直接投资统计公报》。
(1)数据来源:http://www.policyuncertainty.com/index.html。
(1)受篇幅所限,回归结果在此不予列出,如有需要,可向作者索取。