教育进步降低了人口出生率吗?
|
摘要
以贝克尔生育经济学理论为基础,结合中国人口实际发展情况,认为家庭的平均受教育水平在较低和较高的情况下,都会选择多生子女,以达到人口的效用最大化。将其扩展到宏观层面,受教育水平对人口出生率的影响不应是单纯的线性关系。基于2003—2017年中国大陆省级面板数据,利用空间计量模型,实证分析发现人均受教育年限对人口出生率的影响呈"U"型关系,并且存在空间溢出效应,同时还发现高等教育普及率对本区域和周边地区人口出生率均有显著的正向影响。因此,教育进步不仅是提高人口素质的重要手段,更能起到人口数量调整的作用,教育事业的进步对人口发展具有重要意义。
Based on Becker's theory of fertility economics and combined with China's actual population development,it is believed that families will choose to have more children when their average educational level is lower or higher,so as to maximize the human utility.At the macro level,the effect of education level on the birth rate should not be purely linear.Based on the provincial panel data of mainland China from2003 to 2017,the empirical analysis using the spatial econometric model finds that the per capita education level has a U-shaped relationship with birth rate and spatial spillover effect.At the same time,it is found that the penetration rate of higher education not only has a significant positive impact on the birth rate of the province,but also has a positive impact on the birth rate of surrounding areas.Therefore,the progress of education is not only an important mean to improve the quality of the population,but also can play a role in the adjustment of population.The progress of education is of great significance to population development.
Based on Becker's theory of fertility economics and combined with China's actual population development,it is believed that families will choose to have more children when their average educational level is lower or higher,so as to maximize the human utility.At the macro level,the effect of education level on the birth rate should not be purely linear.Based on the provincial panel data of mainland China from2003 to 2017,the empirical analysis using the spatial econometric model finds that the per capita education level has a U-shaped relationship with birth rate and spatial spillover effect.At the same time,it is found that the penetration rate of higher education not only has a significant positive impact on the birth rate of the province,but also has a positive impact on the birth rate of surrounding areas.Therefore,the progress of education is not only an important mean to improve the quality of the population,but also can play a role in the adjustment of population.The progress of education is of great significance to population development.
引文
[1]Feldmann L.Education for Girls Credited for Drop in Teen Birth Rates in Third World[J].Christian Science Monitor,1997,89(55).
[2]Romero L,Pazol K,Warner L,et.al.Reduced Disparities in Birth Rates Among Teens Aged 15-19Years-United States,2006-2007and 2013-2014[J].Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report,2016,65(16).
[3]Abdul S S,Baba S S,Jabir H.The Impact of Mothers Education on Fertility in Ghana[J].International Journal of Probability and Statistics,2018,7(2).
[4]杨龙见,陈建伟,徐琰超.财政教育支出降低了人口出生率?[J].经济评论,2013(3).
[5]周晓蒙.经济状况、教育水平对城镇家庭生育意愿的影响[J].人口与经济,2018(5).
[6]刘章生,刘桂海,周建丰,范丽琴.教育如何影响中国人的“二孩”意愿?——来自CGSS(2013)的证据[J].公共管理学报,2018,15(2).
[7]Rind P.Among Women over 30,Rate of First Births Rose Strongly with Education[J].Family Planning Perspectives,1991,23(4).
[8]Fort M,Schneeweis N E,Winter-Ebmer R.More Schooling,More Children:Compulsory Schooling Reforms and Fertility in Europe[J].SSRN Electronic Journal,2011,86(273).
[9]Monstad K,Propper C,Salvanes K G.Education and Fertility:Evidence from a Natural Experiment[J].Scandinavian Journal of Economics,2008,110(4).
[10]张琬翌,张云垛,乔文俊.城乡居民生育意愿的影响因素研究——基于CGSS2010数据的实证分析[J].湖北农业科学,2016,55(18).
[11]徐超,吴玲萍.高等教育影响居民二孩生育意愿吗?——来自CGSS数据的证据[J].公共财政研究,2018(03).
[12]Becker G S.A Theory of Marriage:Part I[J].Journal of Political Economy,1973,81(4).
[13]Elhorst J P.Spatial Econometrics.From Cross-sectional Data to Spatial Panels[J].James P Lesage,2014,1(1).
[14]杨华磊,吴义根,张冰鑫.城镇化、外部性与生育水平[J].人口与发展,2018,24(4).
[15]张鋆,万程成.经济新常态、“全面二孩”政策与生育率波动——基于真实经济周期的分析测度[J].统计与信息论坛,2018,33(2).
(1)“两基”是基本实施九年义务教育和基本扫除青壮年文盲的简称。
(1)人均受教育年限=(小学人口数*6+初中人口数*9+高中人口数*12+高职人口数*12+大专及以上*16)/6岁及以上人口数。
(2)高等教育普及率=大专及以上人数/6岁及以上人口数。
(3)粗离婚率=年度离婚对数/年中常住人口数。
(1)本文二进制空间权重矩阵中的海南与广东相邻,其中相邻为1,不相邻为0。
(1)弹性系数-反馈效应=直接效应。
[2]Romero L,Pazol K,Warner L,et.al.Reduced Disparities in Birth Rates Among Teens Aged 15-19Years-United States,2006-2007and 2013-2014[J].Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report,2016,65(16).
[3]Abdul S S,Baba S S,Jabir H.The Impact of Mothers Education on Fertility in Ghana[J].International Journal of Probability and Statistics,2018,7(2).
[4]杨龙见,陈建伟,徐琰超.财政教育支出降低了人口出生率?[J].经济评论,2013(3).
[5]周晓蒙.经济状况、教育水平对城镇家庭生育意愿的影响[J].人口与经济,2018(5).
[6]刘章生,刘桂海,周建丰,范丽琴.教育如何影响中国人的“二孩”意愿?——来自CGSS(2013)的证据[J].公共管理学报,2018,15(2).
[7]Rind P.Among Women over 30,Rate of First Births Rose Strongly with Education[J].Family Planning Perspectives,1991,23(4).
[8]Fort M,Schneeweis N E,Winter-Ebmer R.More Schooling,More Children:Compulsory Schooling Reforms and Fertility in Europe[J].SSRN Electronic Journal,2011,86(273).
[9]Monstad K,Propper C,Salvanes K G.Education and Fertility:Evidence from a Natural Experiment[J].Scandinavian Journal of Economics,2008,110(4).
[10]张琬翌,张云垛,乔文俊.城乡居民生育意愿的影响因素研究——基于CGSS2010数据的实证分析[J].湖北农业科学,2016,55(18).
[11]徐超,吴玲萍.高等教育影响居民二孩生育意愿吗?——来自CGSS数据的证据[J].公共财政研究,2018(03).
[12]Becker G S.A Theory of Marriage:Part I[J].Journal of Political Economy,1973,81(4).
[13]Elhorst J P.Spatial Econometrics.From Cross-sectional Data to Spatial Panels[J].James P Lesage,2014,1(1).
[14]杨华磊,吴义根,张冰鑫.城镇化、外部性与生育水平[J].人口与发展,2018,24(4).
[15]张鋆,万程成.经济新常态、“全面二孩”政策与生育率波动——基于真实经济周期的分析测度[J].统计与信息论坛,2018,33(2).
(1)“两基”是基本实施九年义务教育和基本扫除青壮年文盲的简称。
(1)人均受教育年限=(小学人口数*6+初中人口数*9+高中人口数*12+高职人口数*12+大专及以上*16)/6岁及以上人口数。
(2)高等教育普及率=大专及以上人数/6岁及以上人口数。
(3)粗离婚率=年度离婚对数/年中常住人口数。
(1)本文二进制空间权重矩阵中的海南与广东相邻,其中相邻为1,不相邻为0。
(1)弹性系数-反馈效应=直接效应。