灾害应急管理全过程模型构建与分析
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摘要
纵览应急管理相关研究,宏观层面仍较集中于"一案三制",微观层面则较偏好于用不同方法分析不同行业的应急管理问题,对应急管理全过程的理论与思想创新研究较少。为了能给应急管理研究提供一个新的视角,凸显应急管理全过程控制的重要性和可行性。研究从时间和资源维度,以高效预防、及时应对、有序恢复三个过程为着力点,通过界定应急管理系统相关要素,设定不同类型灾害中个体和政府部门在不同阶段的作用;引入保护行动决策模型(PADM)和国民经济集成动员(NEIM)模型及思想,分析其对应急管理全过程的作用和影响,并以此构建响应行动与动员预案实施模型;最后综合三阶段特征构建灾害应急管理全过程模型。
After analyzing the related research of emergency management,it is still focused on one case &three systems on the macro level,and more inclined to analyze the emergency management problems in different industries by different methods on the micro-level. There is little research on the theory and ideological innovation in the whole process of emergency management. In order to provide a new perspective for emergency management research and highlight the importance and feasibility of the whole process control of emergency management,from the perspective of efficient prevention,timely response and orderly recovery,as well as the dimension of time and resources,firstly define the relevant elements of the emergency management system,put forward the phase during disaster is intersection between the pre-disaster and post-disaster; secondly set the role of individuals and government departments in different stages and different types of disasters; thirdly introduce Protective Action Decision Model( PADM) and National Economy Integrated Mobilization( NEIM),expound its function and influence on the whole process of emergency management,and then construct the model of response action and mobilization plan implement; and finally summarize the characteristic of three phases and construct the whole process model of disaster emergency management.
After analyzing the related research of emergency management,it is still focused on one case &three systems on the macro level,and more inclined to analyze the emergency management problems in different industries by different methods on the micro-level. There is little research on the theory and ideological innovation in the whole process of emergency management. In order to provide a new perspective for emergency management research and highlight the importance and feasibility of the whole process control of emergency management,from the perspective of efficient prevention,timely response and orderly recovery,as well as the dimension of time and resources,firstly define the relevant elements of the emergency management system,put forward the phase during disaster is intersection between the pre-disaster and post-disaster; secondly set the role of individuals and government departments in different stages and different types of disasters; thirdly introduce Protective Action Decision Model( PADM) and National Economy Integrated Mobilization( NEIM),expound its function and influence on the whole process of emergency management,and then construct the model of response action and mobilization plan implement; and finally summarize the characteristic of three phases and construct the whole process model of disaster emergency management.
引文
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[22]孔昭君,韩秋露.论集成动员[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2015,17(1):97-105.
[23]孔昭君.论国民经济动员链[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2012,14(1):71-76.
[24]张纪海.基于动态联盟的国民经济动员组织研究[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2005,7(2):16-22.
[25]孔昭君.论敏捷动员[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2005,7(1):22-28.
[26] Bankston III C L,Barnshaw J,Bevc C,et al. The sociology of Katrina:Perspectives on a modern catastrophe[M]. Maryland:Rowman&Littlefield Publishers,2010:91-93.
[2]中央政府门户网站.中华人民共和国突发事件应对法(主席令第六十九号)[EB/OL].(2007-08-30)[2018-04-20]. http://www. gov. cn/flfg/2007-08/30/content_732593. htm.
[3]薛澜,钟开斌.突发公共事件分类、分级与分期:应急体质的管理基础[J].中国行政管理,2005,21(2):102-107.
[4]中央政府门户网站.国家突发公共事件预案体系[EB/OL].(2005-08-31)[2018-04-20]. http://www. gov. cn/yjgl/2005-08/31/content_27872. htm.
[5]杨青,田依林,宋英华.基于过程管理的城市灾害应急管理综合能力评价体系研究[J].中国行政管理,2007,23(3):103-106.
[6]李宏.近期国内应急管理研究综述[J].大连干部学刊,2012,28(9):44-47.
[7]陈安,迟菲.应急管理:社会管理的核心功能[J].中国科学院院刊,2012,27(1):31-36.
[8]闪淳昌,黄敏.中国应急管理及运行模式[J].北京航空航天大学学报(社会科学版),2010,23(3):22-26.
[9]闪淳昌,周玲,钟开斌.对我国应急管理机制建设的总体思考[J].国家行政学院学报,2011,13(1):8-13.
[10]林鸿潮.论公共应急管理机制的法治化——兼辨“一案三制”[J].社会主义研究,2009,32(5):108-112.
[11]孙佰清,朱晓鑫,洪鑫磊.基于合作博弈理论的应急物流协同机制研究[J].灾害学,2017,32(2):181-184.
[12]肖龙.我国要援助者信息收集、保存与共享的可行性探析——基于区域防减灾信息管理的视角[J].灾害学,2018,33(2):160-164.
[13] Lindell M K,Perry R W. The protective action decision:Theoretical modifications and additional evidence[J]. Risk Analysis,2012,32(4):616-632.
[14] WEI J C,ZHAO M,WANG F,et al. An empirical study of the volkswagen crisis in China:Customers’information processing and behavioral intentions[J]. Risk Analysis,2016,36(1):114-129.
[15] HUANG S K,Lindell M K,Prater C W,et al. Household evacuation decision making in response to Hurricane Ike[J]. Natural Hazards Review,2012,13(4):283-296.
[16] HUANG S K,Lindell M K,Prater C S. Multistage model of hurricane evacuation decision:Empirical study of hurricanes katrina and rita[J]. Natural Hazards Review,2017,18(3):1-15.
[17] Houts P S,Lindell M K,HU T W,et al. Protective action decision model applied to evacuation during the three mile island crisis[J],International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters,1984,2(1):27-39.
[18] Terpstra T,Lindell M K. Citizens’perceptions of flood hazard adjustments:An application of the protective action decision model[J]. Environment and Behavior,2013,45(8):993-1018.
[19] HUANG S K,WU H C,Lindell M K,et al. Perceptions,behavioral expectations,and implementation timing for response actions in a hurricane emergency[J]. Natural Hazards,2017,88(1):533-558.
[20]中央政府门户网站.国家应急管理工作组织体系[EB/OL].(2005-08-31)[2018-04-25]. http://www. gov. cn/yjgl/2005-08/31/content_69625. htm.
[21]天津市人民政府网.天津应急管理领导机构[EB/OL].(2016-07-28)[2018-04-25]. http://www. tj. gov. cn/xw/ztzl/yjgl/yjjg/201607/t20160728_3517534. html.
[22]孔昭君,韩秋露.论集成动员[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2015,17(1):97-105.
[23]孔昭君.论国民经济动员链[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2012,14(1):71-76.
[24]张纪海.基于动态联盟的国民经济动员组织研究[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2005,7(2):16-22.
[25]孔昭君.论敏捷动员[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2005,7(1):22-28.
[26] Bankston III C L,Barnshaw J,Bevc C,et al. The sociology of Katrina:Perspectives on a modern catastrophe[M]. Maryland:Rowman&Littlefield Publishers,2010:91-93.