中国水资源“农转非”时空异质性及形成机制
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摘要
借助重心迁移、面板分位数回归分析法研究2003—2015年中国省域水资源"农转非"的时空格局、过程及机制。研究表明:(1)水资源"农转非"呈显著空间分异特征,自东南沿海向西北内陆逐渐递减,且北方地区总体低于南方地区。(2)水资源"农转非"重心轨迹波动较大,2003—2008年受重庆、青海、云南的引擎拉动呈西南向移动,2008—2015年在西部省份水资源"农转非"减缓,以及辽宁、吉林、北京等水资源"农转非"提升的共同影响下,呈持续东北向迁移。(3)产业结构变动、市场化水平提高、人均水资源拥有量及生态环境改善是水资源"农转非"主要驱动力,水资源利用比较收益、经济发展水平及人口规模等因素则制约了非农用水占比的提升,城市化水平与农业有效节灌率在不同时段对不同等级地区的作用方向与强度呈相反态势。
This paper aims to explore the heterogeneous pattern, evolving characteristics, and driving mechanism of provincial water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture from 2003 to 2015 in China, by methods of spatio-temporal cluster, the shifting gravity center and its decomposition and panel quantile regression. The results show that:(1) The spatial divergence of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture is obvious, which is gradually decreasing from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, and the divergence in northern provinces are lower than that in southern regions.(2) The shifting gravity center of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture has changed greatly. the gravity center of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture moves southwestward between 2003 and 2008, which is propelled by the engines of Chongqing, Qinghai and Yunnan; While the gravity center of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture shifts to the northeast from 2008 to 2015, which is resulted from both the falling speed of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture in the western provinces and the joint promotion of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture in Liaoning, Jilin and Beijing.(3) The change of regional industrial structure, the improvement of marketization level, per capita water resources and the improvement of ecological environment are the main driving factors of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture. The improvement of the comparative benefit of water resources utilization, the level of economic development and population size are the main constraints of the trsnsfer, while the urbanization level and the effective rate of agricultural irrigation exert reverse impacts on different levels of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture in different periods of time.
This paper aims to explore the heterogeneous pattern, evolving characteristics, and driving mechanism of provincial water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture from 2003 to 2015 in China, by methods of spatio-temporal cluster, the shifting gravity center and its decomposition and panel quantile regression. The results show that:(1) The spatial divergence of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture is obvious, which is gradually decreasing from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, and the divergence in northern provinces are lower than that in southern regions.(2) The shifting gravity center of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture has changed greatly. the gravity center of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture moves southwestward between 2003 and 2008, which is propelled by the engines of Chongqing, Qinghai and Yunnan; While the gravity center of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture shifts to the northeast from 2008 to 2015, which is resulted from both the falling speed of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture in the western provinces and the joint promotion of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture in Liaoning, Jilin and Beijing.(3) The change of regional industrial structure, the improvement of marketization level, per capita water resources and the improvement of ecological environment are the main driving factors of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture. The improvement of the comparative benefit of water resources utilization, the level of economic development and population size are the main constraints of the trsnsfer, while the urbanization level and the effective rate of agricultural irrigation exert reverse impacts on different levels of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture in different periods of time.
引文
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[3]徐中民,龙爱华.中国社会化水资源稀缺评价.地理学报,2004,59(6):982-988.[Xu Zhongmin,Long Aihua.The primary study on assessing social water scarcity in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2004,59(6):982-988.]
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[5]王晓青.中国水资源短缺地域差异研究.自然资源学报,2001,16(6):516-520.[Wang Xiaoqing.A study on regional difference of fresh water resources shortage in China.Journal of Natural Resources,2001,16(6):516-520.]
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[9]曾昭,刘俊国.北京市灰水足迹评价.自然资源学报,2013,28(7):1169-1178.[Zeng Zhao,Liu Junguo.Historical trend of grey water footprint of Beijing,China.Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(7):1169-1178.]
[10]孙克,徐中民.基于地理加权回归的中国灰水足迹人文驱动因素分析.地理研究,2016,35(1):37-48.[Sun Ke,Xu Zhongmin.The impacts of human driving factors on grey water footprint in China using a GWR model.Geographical Research,2016,35(1):37-48.]
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[12]孙才志,姜坤,赵良仕.中国水资源绿色效率测度及空间格局研究.自然资源学报,2017,32(12):1999-2011.[Sun Caizhi,Jiang Kun,Zhao Liangshi.Measurement of green efficiency of water utilization and its spatial pattern in China.Resources Science,Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(12):1999-2011.]
[13]廖虎昌,董毅明.基于DEA和Malmquist指数的西部12省水资源利用效率研究.资源科学,2011,33(2):273-279.[Liao Huchang,Dong Yiming.Utilization efficiency of water resources in 12 western provinces of China based on the DEA and Malmquist TFP index.Resources Science,2011,33(2):273-279.]
[14]汪克亮,刘悦,史利娟,等.长江经济带工业绿色水资源效率的时空分异与影响因素:基于EBM-Tobit模型的两阶段分析.资源科学,2017,39(8):1522-1534.[Wang Keliang,Liu Yue,Shi Lijuan,et al.Yangtze River Economic Zone spatial and temporal disparities in industrial green water resource efficiency and influencing factors based on two-step analysis of EBM-Tobit Model.Resources Science,2017,39(8):1522-1534.]
[15]盖美,吴慧歌,曲本亮.新一轮东北振兴背景下的辽宁省水资源利用效率及其空间关联格局研究.资源科学,2016,38(7):1336-1349.[Gai Mei,Wu Huige,Qu Benliang.Water resource utilization efficiency and disparities in spatial correlation pattern research in Liaoning under the background of new round revitalization of Northeast China.Resources Science,2016,38(7):1336-1349.]
[16]刘渝,杜江,张俊飚.湖北省农业水资源利用效率评价.中国人口?资源与环境,2007,17(6):60-65.[Liu Yu,Du Jiang,Zhang Junbiao.Estimation on utilization efficiency of agricultural water resource in Hubei province.China Population,Resources and Environment,2007,17(6):60-65.]
[17]陈关聚,白永秀.基于随机前沿的区域工业全要素水资源效率研究.资源科学,2013,35(8):1593-1600.[Chen Guanju,Bai Yongxiu.Regional differences in total-factor industrial water efficiency based on a stochastic frontier approach.Resources Science,2013,35(8):1593-1600.]
[18]杨骞,刘华军.污染排放约束下中国农业水资源效率的区域差异与影响因素.数量经济技术经济研究,2015,32(1):114-128.[Yang Qian,Liu Huajun.Regional disparity and influencing factors of agricultural water resources efficiency with the constraint of pollution.The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economies,2015,32(1):114-128.]
[19]臧正,邹欣庆,宋翘楚.空间权重对分析地理要素时空关联格局的影响:基于中国大陆省域水资源消耗强度的实证.地理研究,2017,36(5):872-886.[Zang Zheng,Zou Xinqing,Song Qiaochu.Impacts of spatial weight on the analysis of spatial-temporal patterns of geographic factors:An empirical study on the intensity of water resource consumption in provinces of Chinese Mainland.Geographical Research,2017,36(5):872-886.]
[20]姜东晖,胡继连.对水资源“农转非”现象的经济学分析.中国农业资源与区划,2008,29(3):21-26.[Jiang Donghui,Hu Jilian.Economical analysis on phenomenal of water resources"agriculture transferring to non-agriculture".Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2008,29(3):21-26.]
[21]黄红光,戎丽丽,胡继连.水资源“农转非”的市场调节研究.中国农业资源与区划,2012,33(2):45-50.[Huang Hongguang,Rong Lili,Hu Jilian.Study on market regulation of agricultural water resource urbanization.Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2012,33(2):45-50.]
[22]王学渊,韩洪云,邓启明.水资源“农转非”对农村发展的影响:对河北省兴隆县转轴沟村的案例研究.中国农业大学学报:社会科学版,2007,24(1):131-137.[Wang Xueyuan,Han Hongyun,Deng Qiming.Diverging water from countryside to urban use and its impact on rural development:A case study of Zhuanzhougou village,Xinglong county,Hebei province in China.Journal of China Agricultural University:Social Science Edition,2007,24(1):131-137.]
[23]赵连阁,胡从枢.东阳-义乌水权交易的经济影响分析.农业经济问题,2007,28(4):47-54.[Zhao Liange,Hu Congshu.The analysis of the economic impact of water right exchange in Dongyang-Yiwu,Zhejiang.Issues in Agricultural Economy,2007,28(4):47-54.]
[24]刘杰,姜文来,任天志.农业用水使用权转让补偿机制研究.中国农业资源与区划,2001,22(6):42-44.[Liu Jie,Jiang Wenlai,Ren Tianzhi.Research on the compensation mechanism of agricultural water rights transfer.Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2001,22(6):42-44.]
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