电厂日常煤耗检测的不确定度分析
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摘要
采用蒙特卡洛法研究了电厂日常煤耗检测中输入变量尤其是入炉煤采制样不确定性对煤耗检测精度的影响;建立了基于质量分数方差的入炉煤采制样随机模型,并结合实际采制样实验,定量分析了采制样过程造成的发热量测量误差。研究表明,入炉煤采制样误差是供电煤耗检测的主要误差来源,采用单次采制样样品发热量计算供电煤耗时,煤耗扩展不确定度可达到20～30 g/(kW·h);延长检测周期,采用煤量加权平均发热量计算供电煤耗,能够有效提高检测精度,当检测周期为90 d时,供电煤耗的扩展不确定度可降低到3.195 g/(kW·h);所提出的模型和方法被一台350 MW锅炉实际检测数据所验证。建议电厂应采用日累积供电煤耗替代日供电煤耗的检测方式。
The influence of uncertainty of input variables,especially the uncertainty of the coal sample entering the furnace,on measurement accuracy of net coal consumption rate is studied with Monte Carlo method. A random model for coal sampling based on concentration variance is established,and the uncertainty of sample collection is analyzed quantitatively by both numerical simulation and actual sampling experiment. It shows that coal sampling error is the main error source of coal consumption rate measurement. When the power consumption rate is calculated by calorific value from single sampling results,the uncertainty of coal consumption rate can be up to 20～30 g/(kW·h).Extending measurement cycle and using the average calorific value weighted by coal flow can effectively improve the measurement accuracy. When the measurement cycle increases to 90 days,the expanded uncertainty of coal consumption rate can be reduced to 3.195 g/(kW·h). The proposed model and method presented in this paper are confirmed by the field test of a 350 MW boiler. It is suggested that the current daily coal consumption rate widely used in power plants should be replaced by the daily cumulative coal consumption rate presented in this work.
The influence of uncertainty of input variables,especially the uncertainty of the coal sample entering the furnace,on measurement accuracy of net coal consumption rate is studied with Monte Carlo method. A random model for coal sampling based on concentration variance is established,and the uncertainty of sample collection is analyzed quantitatively by both numerical simulation and actual sampling experiment. It shows that coal sampling error is the main error source of coal consumption rate measurement. When the power consumption rate is calculated by calorific value from single sampling results,the uncertainty of coal consumption rate can be up to 20～30 g/(kW·h).Extending measurement cycle and using the average calorific value weighted by coal flow can effectively improve the measurement accuracy. When the measurement cycle increases to 90 days,the expanded uncertainty of coal consumption rate can be reduced to 3.195 g/(kW·h). The proposed model and method presented in this paper are confirmed by the field test of a 350 MW boiler. It is suggested that the current daily coal consumption rate widely used in power plants should be replaced by the daily cumulative coal consumption rate presented in this work.
引文
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[14] 陆厚根.粉体工程导论[M].上海:同济大学出版社,1993:285-288.LU Hou-gen. Introduction to powder engineering[M].Shanghai:Tongji University Press,1993:285-288.
[15] 刘福国. 国电泰安热电有限公司#1、2机组煤耗分析报告[R]. 济南:山东电力研究院,2016.LIU Fu-guo. Coal consumption analysis report of #1 and 2 units of Guodian Tai′an thermoelectric Co.,Ltd.[R].Jinan:Shandong Electric Power Research Institute,2016.
[2] 王建江,孜克亚尔,李涛,等.锅炉热效率试验不确定度计算及敏感性分析[J].热能动力工程,2017,32(6): 118-122.WANG Jian-jiang,ZI Ke-yaer,LI Tao,et al.Uncertainty calculation and sensitivity analysis in boiler thermal efficiency test.[J].Journal of Engineering for Thermal Energy and Power,2017,32(6):118-122.
[3] 李娜,吴智鹏,薛智. 燃煤电厂煤耗统计分析方法探讨[J].广西电力,2014,37(4): 78-81.LI Na,WU Zhi-peng,XUE Zhi. Discussion on statistic and analysis method of coal consumption in coal-fired power plant[J]. Guangxi Electric Power,2014,37(4): 78-81.
[4] 张小桃,王爱军,李艳华,等. 单元机组运行经济性在线数学模型研究[J].热能动力工程,2001,16(4): 389-392.ZHANG Xiao-tao,WANG Ai-jun,LI Yan-hua,et al.Research on an on-line mathematical model for the evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of a monoblock unit operation.[J].Journal of Engineering for Thermal Energy and Power,2001,16(4) : 389-392.
[5] 李利平,张春发,牛玉广,等. 大型热力发电机组能耗参数的统计分析与应用[J].热能动力工程,2007,22(6):661-664.LI Li-ping,ZHANG Chun-fa,NIU Yu-guang,et al.Statistical analysis and application of energy-consumption parameters of large-sized thermal power plants[J].Journal of Engineering for Thermal Energy And Power,2007,22(6): 661-664.
[6] 吴涛,褚墨,马朋波,等. 莱芜超超临界1 000 MW二次再热机组在线运行性能指标分析及优化[J].热力发电,2017,46(12):133-136.WU Tao,CHU Mo,MA Peng-bo,et al. Analysis and optimization for online operation performance indexes of the ultra supercritical 1 000 MW double-reheat unit in Laiwu power plant.[J].Thermal Power Generation,2017,46(12): 133-136.
[7] 李娜. 供电煤耗与煤场盈亏的实证统计分析[J].电力与能源,2015,36(6): 894-896.LI Na. Empirical statistical analysis of power supply coal consumption and coal yard profit/loss[J]. Power and Energy,2015,36(6): 894-896.
[8] 陈继军,宋璟,张继斌. 影响电厂供电煤耗正反平衡因素分析[J].华北电力技术,2009(12): 15-17.CHEN Ji-jun,SONG Jing,ZHANG Ji-bin.Evaluation of uncertainty in measurement based on a Monte Carlo method[J]. North China Electric Power,2009(12): 15-17.
[9] 关维琦,窦艳红,王子乔. 煤弹筒发热量的测量不确定度评定[J].长春理工大学学报(自然科学版),2012,35(3):169-171.GUAN Wei-qi,DOU Yan-hong,WANG Zi-qiao. Evaluation of uncertainty in measurement of bomb calorific value of coal[J]. Journal of Changchun University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition),2012,35(3): 169-171.
[10] 李书杰,钱艺华,陈天生,等. 煤恒容高位发热量测量不确定度评定[J].热力发电,2005(4):28-30.LI Shu-jie,QIAN Yi-hua,CHEN Tian-sheng,et al. Evaluation of uncertainty in measurement if constant volume gross calorific value for coal[J].Thermal Power Generation,2005(4):28-30.
[11] 刘福国,王守恩,崔福兴. 锅炉入炉煤质检测数据正态性分析及应用[J].热力发电,2018,47(7) : 34-39.LIU Fu-guo,WANG Shou-en,CUI Fu-xing. Normal analysis and application of daily coal quality monitoring data of utility boiler[J]. Thermal Power Generation,2018,47(7) : 34-39.
[12] 陈怀艳,曹芸,韩洁. 基于蒙特卡罗法的测量不确定度评定[J].电子测量与仪器学报,2011,25(4): 301-308.CHEN Huai-yan,CAO Yun,HAN Jie. Evaluation of uncertainty in measurement based on a Monte Carlo method[J].Journal of Electronic Measurement and Instrument,2011,25(4):301-308.
[13] 赵显桥,吴胜杰,何国亮,等. 蒙特卡罗法在锅炉热效率测量不确定度评定中的应用[J].热力发电,2011,40(1):19-22.ZHAO Xian-qiao,WU Sheng-jie,HE Guo-liang,et al. Application of monte-carlo method in uncertainty evaluation for measurement of boiler′s thermal efficiency[J]. Thermal Power Generation,2011,40(1): 19-22.
[14] 陆厚根.粉体工程导论[M].上海:同济大学出版社,1993:285-288.LU Hou-gen. Introduction to powder engineering[M].Shanghai:Tongji University Press,1993:285-288.
[15] 刘福国. 国电泰安热电有限公司#1、2机组煤耗分析报告[R]. 济南:山东电力研究院,2016.LIU Fu-guo. Coal consumption analysis report of #1 and 2 units of Guodian Tai′an thermoelectric Co.,Ltd.[R].Jinan:Shandong Electric Power Research Institute,2016.