积温效应对大气环境污染事件的影响预测研究
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摘要
夏季环境质量受温度因素影响较大,持续高温天气会造成积温效应。通过对大气环境污染级别与温度的相关性分析,提出将温度累积效应对大气环境污染事件的影响按当日温度累积效应和多日温度累积效应两部分进行累积处理的新思路,建立考虑积温效应的温度修正模型,同时给出相关系数的求解方法,对温度的输入数据进行修正处理。以某园区环境空气质量数据和气象数据为样本,对环境污染事件进行预警,有效提高预测精度。
引文
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[2]王刚桥,刘奕,杨盼,等.面向突发事件的复杂系统应急决策方法研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(10):2449-2458.
[3]阮俊虎,王旭坪.中转点变化的应急医疗物资联合运送干扰管理研究[J].运筹与管理,2016,25(4):114-124.
[4]黄辉庆,邹凯,李丹丹.基于模糊多属性决策的城市应急管理信息化绩效测评研究[J].中国管理科学,2013(S1):159-164.
[5]SCHERL R,ULERY D L.Technologies for army knowledge fusion[R].Aberdeen:Army Research Laboratory,2004.
[6]CARVER L,TUROFF M.Human-computer interaction:the human and computer as a team in emergency management information systems[J].Communications of the ACM,2007,50(3):33-38.
[7]KISI O,PARMAR K S.Application of least square support vector machine and multivariate adaptive regression spline models in long term prediction of river water pollution[J].Journal of Hydrology,2016,534(3):104-112.
[8]LOTHE A G,SINHA A.Development of model for prediction of leachate pollution index (LPI) in absence of leachate parameters.[J].Waste Management,2017,63(5):327-336.
[9]CHANG C L,LI M Y.Predictions of diffuse pollution by the HSPF model and the back-propagation neural network model[J].Water Environment Research,2017,89(8):732-738.
[10]刘双印,徐龙琴,李道亮.基于粗糙集融合支持向量机的水质预警模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(6):1617-1624.
[11]易高翔,潘长城,郭建中,等.基于多源数据融合的石油罐区安全监控模型[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(3):90-94.
[12]MORLEY D W,GULLIVER J.A land use regression variable generation,modelling and prediction tool for air pollution exposure assessment[J].Environmental Modelling & Software,2018,105(7):17-23.
[13]RAZANAMAHANDRY L C,ANDRIANISA H A,KAROUI H,et al.Prediction model for cyanide soil pollution in artisanal gold mining area by using logistic regression[J].Catena,2018,162(3):40-50.
[14]ELZWAYIE A,EL-SHAFIE A,YASEEN Z M,et al.Rbfnn-based model for heavy metal prediction for different climatic and pollution conditions[J].Neural Computing & Applications,2017,28(8):1-13.
[15]XU W,RILEY E A,AUSTIN E,et al.Use of mobile and passive badge air monitoring data for NOX and ozone air pollution spatial exposure prediction models[J].Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental ,2017,27(2):184-192.
[16]白鹤鸣,沈润平,师华定,等.基于BP神经网络的空气污染指数预测模型研究[J].环境科学与技术,2013,36(3):186-189.
[17]王国胜,郭联金,董晓清,等.深圳市区空气污染的人工神经网络预测[J].环境工程学报,2015,9(7):3393-3399.
[18]KUMAR A,GOYAL P.Forecasting of air quality index in delhi using neural network based on principal component analysis[J].Pure & Applied Geophysics,2013,170(4):711-722.
[19]JACOB D J,WINNER D A.Effect of climate change on air quality[J].Atmospheric Environment,2009,43(1):51-63.
[20]杨长兴,杨龙.神经网络在考虑气温因素短期负荷预测中的应用[J].福建电脑,2009,25(4):93-94.
[21]陈根永,史敬天,毛晓波,等.考虑温度积累效应的短期电力负荷预测方法研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2009,37(16):24-28.
[22]高赐威,李倩玉,苏卫华,等.短期负荷预测中考虑积温效应的温度修正模型研究[J].电工技术学报,2015,30(4):242-248.
[23]于秀丽,王旭坪,张娜娜.应急领域本体的构建方法研究[J].电子科技大学学报(社会科学版),2015,17(3):20-23,59.