空间演化、空间溢出与兰州都市圈工业经济发展
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摘要
从工业经济空间溢出效应视角出发,选取2006—2015年兰州都市圈各县市面板数据,通过空间演化分析方法研究兰州都市圈工业经济空间发展演变规律,并在此基础上建立空间杜宾模型分析其工业经济空间溢出效应,进一步通过溢出效应的分解来探寻兰州都市圈工业经济溢出效应传导机制。研究发现,兰州都市圈工业经济发展存在显著的正向空间溢出效应,且城镇发展水平空间溢出总效应最强,工业集聚与资本投入的空间单向溢出效应为负,但空间溢出总效应为正,工业经济及其影响因素溢出效应的强弱主要受区位相邻距离影响。
Starting from the perspective of industrial economic spatial spillover effect and choosing the panel data of each city and county in Lanzhou metropolitan area from 2006 to 2015, this paper studiesthe evolution rules of industrial economic space development in Lanzhou metropolitan area through spatial evolution analysis method. On the basis of this, it analyzes its industrial economic spatial spillover effect by establishing a space Durbin model. And further through the decomposition of spillover effect, it explores the transmission mechanism of industrial economy spillover effect in Lanzhou metropolitan area. The study finds that there is a significant positive spatial spillover effect in the industrial economic development in Lanzhou metropolitan area, and the total spatial spillover effect of urban development level is the strongest. And the spatial one-way spillover effect of industrial agglomeration and capital investment is negative, but the total effect of spatial spillover is positive. The intensity of the spillover effect in the industrial economy and its influencing factors is mainly affected by the adjacent distance of the location.
Starting from the perspective of industrial economic spatial spillover effect and choosing the panel data of each city and county in Lanzhou metropolitan area from 2006 to 2015, this paper studiesthe evolution rules of industrial economic space development in Lanzhou metropolitan area through spatial evolution analysis method. On the basis of this, it analyzes its industrial economic spatial spillover effect by establishing a space Durbin model. And further through the decomposition of spillover effect, it explores the transmission mechanism of industrial economy spillover effect in Lanzhou metropolitan area. The study finds that there is a significant positive spatial spillover effect in the industrial economic development in Lanzhou metropolitan area, and the total spatial spillover effect of urban development level is the strongest. And the spatial one-way spillover effect of industrial agglomeration and capital investment is negative, but the total effect of spatial spillover is positive. The intensity of the spillover effect in the industrial economy and its influencing factors is mainly affected by the adjacent distance of the location.
引文
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[12]LeSage J,Fischer M.Spatial growth regressions,model specialization estimation,and interpretation.Spatial Economic Analysis,2008(3):275-304.
[13]Greunnz L.Industrial structure and innovation-evidenced from European regions.Journal of Evolutionary Economics,2004(5):563-592.
[14]刘明,赵彦云.基于投入要素的中国制造业省域空间溢出效应:测度与实证.数理统计与管理,2018(1):122-134.
[15]柯善咨,夏金坤.中原城市群的集聚效应和回流作用.中国软科学,2010(10):93-103.
[16]Anselin L,Bera A,Florax R,et al.Simple diagnostic tests for spatial dependence.Regional Science and Urban Economics,1996,22(1):77-104.
[2]李文强.都市圈产业结构演化研究-以上海都市圈为例.上海:上海交通大学,2010.
[3]万庆,曾菊新.基于空间相互作用视角的城市群产业结构优化-以武汉城市群为例.经济地理,2013(7):102-108.
[4]杨丞娟,王宝顺.公共支出、空间外溢与圈域经济增长-以武汉城市圈为例.现代财经,2013(3):119-129.
[5]罗胤晨,谷人旭,王春萌,等.县域工业集聚的空间效应分析及其影响因素-基于长江三角洲地区的实证研究.经济地理,2015(12):120-128.
[6]毛琦梁,董锁成,黄永斌,等.首都圈产业分布变化及其空间溢出效应分析-基于制造业从业人数的实证研究.地理研究,2014(5):899-914.
[7]杨永春,张从果,吴文鑫.中国西部地区大都市圈发展规划研究-以兰州大都市圈规划为例.城市规划,2005(4):23-29.
[8]屠锦敏,屈鹏举,董晓峰.兰州都市圈建设研究.城市发展研究,2006(1):7-10.
[9]董晓峰,张志强,刘理臣.兰州都市圈发展可行性与发展战略研究.地球科学进展,2006(3):235-241.
[10]吴文恒,牛叔文,董晓峰.都市圈经济发展的主要原理及对兰州都市圈建设的启示.干旱区地理,2007(3):311-319.
[11]徐秀玲.兰州都市圈经济空间结构优化研究.开发研究,2009(2):149-152.
[12]LeSage J,Fischer M.Spatial growth regressions,model specialization estimation,and interpretation.Spatial Economic Analysis,2008(3):275-304.
[13]Greunnz L.Industrial structure and innovation-evidenced from European regions.Journal of Evolutionary Economics,2004(5):563-592.
[14]刘明,赵彦云.基于投入要素的中国制造业省域空间溢出效应:测度与实证.数理统计与管理,2018(1):122-134.
[15]柯善咨,夏金坤.中原城市群的集聚效应和回流作用.中国软科学,2010(10):93-103.
[16]Anselin L,Bera A,Florax R,et al.Simple diagnostic tests for spatial dependence.Regional Science and Urban Economics,1996,22(1):77-104.