基于Logistic模型的农业与物流业联动发展研究
|
摘要
实现农业与物流业的联动发展有助于增强农业对物流业的拉动作用及物流业对农业的促进作用,为探究两种作用的强弱变化,从产业生命周期视角通过Logistic增长模型利用2001—2016年相关数据测度我国农业与物流业的发展阶段。结果表明:农业增速最快的时间拐点为2012年,目前正处于发展的第三阶段即成长期末期,成熟期拐点为2020年;物流业增速最快的时间拐点为2015年同样处于成长期末期,成熟期拐点为2024年。从产业生命周期角度看,物流业成长期比农业成长期更充足,因此物流业对农业的促进作用比农业对物流业的拉动作用更显著。最后基于以上结论,为增强我国农业与物流业的联动发展提出有针对性的建议措施。
Realizing the linkage development of agriculture and logistics industry will help to enhance the role of agriculture in the logistics industry and the promotion of logistics industry to agriculture, in order to explore the change of the strength of the two functions, from the perspective of industrial life cycle, the logistic growth model is used to measure the development stage of China's agriculture and logistics industry by using 2001—2016 related data. The result shows that the fastest time inflection point for agricultural growth is 2012, which is at the end of the third stage of development, and the time inflection point for maturity is 2020, while the fastest time inflection point for the logistics industry is 2015, and it is also at the final stage of growth, but the next time inflection point is 2024. Therefore, from the perspective of industrial life cycle, the remaining time to maturity of the logistics industry is more abundant than agriculture. In other words, the logistics industry's role in promoting agriculture is more significant than that of agriculture to the logistics industry. Finally, based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward some pertinent suggestions for strengthening the linkage development of China's agriculture and logistics industry.
Realizing the linkage development of agriculture and logistics industry will help to enhance the role of agriculture in the logistics industry and the promotion of logistics industry to agriculture, in order to explore the change of the strength of the two functions, from the perspective of industrial life cycle, the logistic growth model is used to measure the development stage of China's agriculture and logistics industry by using 2001—2016 related data. The result shows that the fastest time inflection point for agricultural growth is 2012, which is at the end of the third stage of development, and the time inflection point for maturity is 2020, while the fastest time inflection point for the logistics industry is 2015, and it is also at the final stage of growth, but the next time inflection point is 2024. Therefore, from the perspective of industrial life cycle, the remaining time to maturity of the logistics industry is more abundant than agriculture. In other words, the logistics industry's role in promoting agriculture is more significant than that of agriculture to the logistics industry. Finally, based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward some pertinent suggestions for strengthening the linkage development of China's agriculture and logistics industry.
引文
[1] 高艳,高巍,刘新红.黑龙江垦区有机粮食物流协同模型构建研究[J].中国农机化学报,2016,37(1):252-255.Gao Yan,Gao Wei,Liu xinhong.Research on organic food logistics synergy model building problem of Heilongjiang reclamation area [J].Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization,2016,37(1):252-255.
[2] 沈娣丽,孟雅俊,陆程,等.基于ZigBee和WebGIS冷链物流信息无线监控系统[J].中国农机化学报,2015,36(4):189-192,212.Shen Dili,Meng Yajun,Lu Cheng,et al.Wireless monitoring system of cold-chain logistics information based on ZigBee and WebGIS technologies [J].Journal of Chines Agricultural Mechanization,2015,36(4):189-192,212.
[3] 张乐勤,陈发奎.基于Logistic模型的中国城镇化演进对耕地影响前景预测及分析[J].农业工程学报,2014(4):1-11.Zhang Leqin,Chen Fakui.Analysis and forecast on prospect about influence of urbanization gradual progress on cultivated land in China based on Logistic model [J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2014(4):1-11.
[4] 李全喜,刘岩,刘佳琳.基于Logistic回归分析的我国物流产业成长研究[J].软科学,2012,26(9):7-9,14.
[5] 王铁,王伟,申晋宪,等.农业物流专用运输半挂车车身结构的优化设计[J].中国农机化学报,2013,34(1):169-173,177.Wang Tie,Wang Wei,Shen Jinxian,et al.Optimization design of the semi-trailer body structure for agricultural logistics [J].Chinese Agricultural Mechanization,2013,34(1):169-173,177.
[6] 孙艳,黄素琴.基于生命周期理论的农业高新产业风险管理[J].改革与战略,2010,26(10):84-86.
[2] 沈娣丽,孟雅俊,陆程,等.基于ZigBee和WebGIS冷链物流信息无线监控系统[J].中国农机化学报,2015,36(4):189-192,212.Shen Dili,Meng Yajun,Lu Cheng,et al.Wireless monitoring system of cold-chain logistics information based on ZigBee and WebGIS technologies [J].Journal of Chines Agricultural Mechanization,2015,36(4):189-192,212.
[3] 张乐勤,陈发奎.基于Logistic模型的中国城镇化演进对耕地影响前景预测及分析[J].农业工程学报,2014(4):1-11.Zhang Leqin,Chen Fakui.Analysis and forecast on prospect about influence of urbanization gradual progress on cultivated land in China based on Logistic model [J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2014(4):1-11.
[4] 李全喜,刘岩,刘佳琳.基于Logistic回归分析的我国物流产业成长研究[J].软科学,2012,26(9):7-9,14.
[5] 王铁,王伟,申晋宪,等.农业物流专用运输半挂车车身结构的优化设计[J].中国农机化学报,2013,34(1):169-173,177.Wang Tie,Wang Wei,Shen Jinxian,et al.Optimization design of the semi-trailer body structure for agricultural logistics [J].Chinese Agricultural Mechanization,2013,34(1):169-173,177.
[6] 孙艳,黄素琴.基于生命周期理论的农业高新产业风险管理[J].改革与战略,2010,26(10):84-86.