基于人粮关系的土地资源承载力动态分析与预测——以广西壮族自治区为例
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摘要
以广西壮族自治区人粮关系为切入点,根据社会经济统计数据、土地利用现状数据,结合土地承载力(LCC)模型、土地资源承载力指数(LCCI)模型,定量评价了广西土地资源承载力及土地资源承载力指数变化情况,并运用GM(1,1)模型对结果进行预测。研究结果表明:(1)2005～2015年,广西全省粮食产量、土地资源承载力整体略有增强,全省人口基数过大且逐年呈增长趋势,粮食盈余率呈现负增长状态。(2)2005～2015年间,广西土地资源承载力指数值均大于1.125,并呈增长趋势,说明广西区域粮食总量无法满足人口的需求,粮食严重不足,人口呈超载状态。(3)2016～2025年,土地承载力指数表现出逐年上升的趋势,由2016年的1.55上升到2025年的1.75,10年间上升12.90%,按照此趋势发展下去,广西人口将会严重超载,人地矛盾日趋严峻,对广西经济社会可持续发展具有一定的阻碍作用。该研究可为缓解人地矛盾实现地区可持续发展提供科学依据。
Based on the relationship between human and grain in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, this paper quantitatively evaluated the carrying capacity of land resources in Guangxi based on socio-economic statistical data and land use status data by using land carrying capacity(LCC) model and land resource carrying capacity index(LCCI) model, and predicted the changes in land resource carrying capacity index by using GM(1,1) model. From 2005 to 2015, the grain yield and land resource carrying capacity of Guangxi increased slightly in general. The population base of the whole region was too big and showed an increasing trend year by year, while the grain surplus rate showed a negative growth state. During 2005～2015, the index of land resource carrying capacity in Guangxi was all more than 1.125, and exhibited a rising trend, indicating that the total grain yield in this period in Guangxi could not meet the needs of the population. It is predicted that the land resource carrying capacity index in Guangxi will gradually increase from 1.55 in 2016 to 1.75 in 2025.
Based on the relationship between human and grain in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, this paper quantitatively evaluated the carrying capacity of land resources in Guangxi based on socio-economic statistical data and land use status data by using land carrying capacity(LCC) model and land resource carrying capacity index(LCCI) model, and predicted the changes in land resource carrying capacity index by using GM(1,1) model. From 2005 to 2015, the grain yield and land resource carrying capacity of Guangxi increased slightly in general. The population base of the whole region was too big and showed an increasing trend year by year, while the grain surplus rate showed a negative growth state. During 2005～2015, the index of land resource carrying capacity in Guangxi was all more than 1.125, and exhibited a rising trend, indicating that the total grain yield in this period in Guangxi could not meet the needs of the population. It is predicted that the land resource carrying capacity index in Guangxi will gradually increase from 1.55 in 2016 to 1.75 in 2025.
引文
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[2] 封志明,杨艳昭,张晶.中国基于人粮关系的土地资源承载力研究:从分县到全国[J].自然资源学报,2008(5):865-875.
[3] 魏媛,吴长勇,曾昉,等.喀斯贫困山区土地资源承载力动态分析与预测[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(6):322-326.
[4] 刘东红,周文佐,何万华,等.土地可持续利用评价与诊断:以安徽省为例[J].江西农业学报,2018,30(2):129-134.
[5] 赵雪雁,刘霜,李巍.基于人粮关系的土地资源承载力研究:以甘南藏族自治州为例[J].西北师范大学学报:自然科学版,2010,46(6):100-103.
[6] 孙永爱,刁承泰,施开放.基于人粮关系的重庆市土地资源承载力研究[J].江西农业学报,2012,24(8):141-144,147.
[7] 王雄.甘谷县土地资源承载力及其动态变化研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2015.
[8] 刘东,封志明,杨艳昭,等.中国粮食生产发展特征及土地资源承载力空间格局现状[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(7):1-6,398.
[9] 卢良恕,刘志澄.中国中长期食物发展战略[M].北京:农业出版社,1993.
[10] 梅方权.21世纪前期中国粮食发展分析[J].中国软科学,1995(11):98-101.
[11] 朱小娟,刘普幸,赵敏丽,等.甘肃省土地资源承载力格局的时空演变分析[J].土壤,2013,45(2):1346-1354.
[12] 赵素霞,牛海鹏.基于灰色马尔科夫模型的河南省耕地压力状况研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(8):46-51.