基于投影寻踪模型的榆林市水资源承载能力研究
|
摘要
【目的】评价榆林市水资源承载能力。【方法】从榆林市水资源基本特点和现状出发,构建了包含水资源系统、人口子系统、社会经济系统和生态系统的指标评价体系。利用粒子群优化算法投影寻踪模型,对榆林市2013—2015年的水资源承载能力水平进行了评价和比较分析,并在此基础上挑选出对水资源承载能力影响较大7个指标作为调控对象,对全市未来水资源承载能力进行了预测。【结果】2013—2015年榆林市水资源承载能力为一般水平,3 a来,榆林市各县区水资源承载能力均有所下降,其中神木县承载能力下降最快,由一般转变为弱。【结论】通过对用水指标调控发现,要解决榆林市的缺水问题,调整工业结构,提高工业水重复利用率,加大农田节水力度、优化种植结构十分必要。此外,必须考虑黄河引水工程,才能提高榆林市未来水资源承载能力。
【Objective】The availability of water resource is the determinant of economy in a region and the objective of this paper is to present a method to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resource in Yulin, Shanxi province.【Method】The proposed method was based on the project pursuit model which includes a water resource module, an economic module, a social module and an ecological module. We evaluated and compared the water resources carrying capacity of Yulin from 2013 to 2015 using the PSO projection pursuit model, from which seven contributive indexes were selected as a control object to predict the water resource carrying capacity in the future.【Result】The water resource carrying capacity in the region was moderate from 2013 to 2015, but was in decline with Shenmu Country deteriorating most changing from moderate level to weak level during the three-year period.【Conclusion】Calculation using the proposed model indicated that restructuring the industry, improving water reuse, implementing water-saving agriculture and optimizing crop variety is the way to resolve the declining water resources carrying capacity in this region. In addition, building a canal to divert water from the Yellow River is also an option to mitigate dwindling water resource.
【Objective】The availability of water resource is the determinant of economy in a region and the objective of this paper is to present a method to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resource in Yulin, Shanxi province.【Method】The proposed method was based on the project pursuit model which includes a water resource module, an economic module, a social module and an ecological module. We evaluated and compared the water resources carrying capacity of Yulin from 2013 to 2015 using the PSO projection pursuit model, from which seven contributive indexes were selected as a control object to predict the water resource carrying capacity in the future.【Result】The water resource carrying capacity in the region was moderate from 2013 to 2015, but was in decline with Shenmu Country deteriorating most changing from moderate level to weak level during the three-year period.【Conclusion】Calculation using the proposed model indicated that restructuring the industry, improving water reuse, implementing water-saving agriculture and optimizing crop variety is the way to resolve the declining water resources carrying capacity in this region. In addition, building a canal to divert water from the Yellow River is also an option to mitigate dwindling water resource.
引文
[1]张永勇,夏军,王中根.区域水资源承载力理论与方法探讨[J].地理科学进展,2007,26(2):126-132.
[2]左其亭.水资源承载力研究方法总结与再思考[J].水利水电科技进展,2017,37(3):1-6.
[3]段春青,刘昌明,陈晓楠,等.区域水资源承载力概念及研究方法的探讨[J].地理学报,2010,65(1):82-90.
[4]王建华,姜大川,肖伟华,等.基于动态试算反馈的水资源承载力评价方法研究:以沂河流域(临沂段)为例[J].水利学报,2016,47(6):724-732.
[5]李云玲,郭旭宁,郭东阳,等.水资源承载能力评价方法研究及应用[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(3):342-349.
[6]王薇,雷学东,余新晓,等.基于SD模型的水资源承载力计算理论研究:以青海共和盆地水资源承载力研究为例[J].水资源与水工程学报,2005(3):11-15.
[7]尹杰杰,崔远来,刘博,等.基于多目标优化的灌区水资源承载力研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2017(8):5-8.
[8]方国华,胡玉贵,徐瑶.区域水资源承载能力多目标分析评价模型及应用[J].水资源保护,2006,22(6):9-13.
[9]赵蕊.水资源短缺对区域产业结构优化影响:以榆林市为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016(S1):333-335.
[10]党丽娟,徐勇,王志强.陕西省榆林市水资源人口承载规模研究[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(3):90-97.
[11]姜秋香,付强,王子龙.基于粒子群优化投影寻踪模型的区域土地资源承载力综合评价[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(11):319-324.
[12]朱成立,陈科巨.基于PSO-PPGE模型的农村水利现代化评价[J].灌溉排水学报,2012,31(6):117-120.
[13]刘名冲,刘瑞卿,张路路,等.基于粒子群优化投影寻踪模型的土地整治综合效益评价研究[J].土壤通报,2013,44(5):1 047-1 052.
[14]贺延国,付强,冯艳,等.东北半干旱抗旱灌溉区节水农业综合效益等级评价模型[J].灌溉排水学报,2006,25(6):57-60.
[15]李季,孙秀霞,李士波,等.基于遗传交叉因子的改进粒子群优化算法[J].计算机工程,2008(2):181-183.
[16]庄妍.延安市水土资源承载力研究[D].西安:长安大学,2015.
[17]南彩艳.西北旱作区水土资源承载力研究[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2011.
[18]荀继萍,任仲宇,张永祥,等.物元可拓法在地下水水质评价中的应用[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(5):87-92.
[19]谷红梅,贾丽,蒋晓辉,等.基于熵权物元可拓法的黑河中游水资源承载力评价[J].灌溉排水学报,2016,35(6):87-92.
[20]施开放,刁承泰.重庆市三峡库区水资源承载力评价[J].灌溉排水学报,2012,31(5):108-112.
[2]左其亭.水资源承载力研究方法总结与再思考[J].水利水电科技进展,2017,37(3):1-6.
[3]段春青,刘昌明,陈晓楠,等.区域水资源承载力概念及研究方法的探讨[J].地理学报,2010,65(1):82-90.
[4]王建华,姜大川,肖伟华,等.基于动态试算反馈的水资源承载力评价方法研究:以沂河流域(临沂段)为例[J].水利学报,2016,47(6):724-732.
[5]李云玲,郭旭宁,郭东阳,等.水资源承载能力评价方法研究及应用[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(3):342-349.
[6]王薇,雷学东,余新晓,等.基于SD模型的水资源承载力计算理论研究:以青海共和盆地水资源承载力研究为例[J].水资源与水工程学报,2005(3):11-15.
[7]尹杰杰,崔远来,刘博,等.基于多目标优化的灌区水资源承载力研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2017(8):5-8.
[8]方国华,胡玉贵,徐瑶.区域水资源承载能力多目标分析评价模型及应用[J].水资源保护,2006,22(6):9-13.
[9]赵蕊.水资源短缺对区域产业结构优化影响:以榆林市为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016(S1):333-335.
[10]党丽娟,徐勇,王志强.陕西省榆林市水资源人口承载规模研究[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(3):90-97.
[11]姜秋香,付强,王子龙.基于粒子群优化投影寻踪模型的区域土地资源承载力综合评价[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(11):319-324.
[12]朱成立,陈科巨.基于PSO-PPGE模型的农村水利现代化评价[J].灌溉排水学报,2012,31(6):117-120.
[13]刘名冲,刘瑞卿,张路路,等.基于粒子群优化投影寻踪模型的土地整治综合效益评价研究[J].土壤通报,2013,44(5):1 047-1 052.
[14]贺延国,付强,冯艳,等.东北半干旱抗旱灌溉区节水农业综合效益等级评价模型[J].灌溉排水学报,2006,25(6):57-60.
[15]李季,孙秀霞,李士波,等.基于遗传交叉因子的改进粒子群优化算法[J].计算机工程,2008(2):181-183.
[16]庄妍.延安市水土资源承载力研究[D].西安:长安大学,2015.
[17]南彩艳.西北旱作区水土资源承载力研究[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2011.
[18]荀继萍,任仲宇,张永祥,等.物元可拓法在地下水水质评价中的应用[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(5):87-92.
[19]谷红梅,贾丽,蒋晓辉,等.基于熵权物元可拓法的黑河中游水资源承载力评价[J].灌溉排水学报,2016,35(6):87-92.
[20]施开放,刁承泰.重庆市三峡库区水资源承载力评价[J].灌溉排水学报,2012,31(5):108-112.